| Previous Section | Back to Table of Contents | Lords Hansard Home Page |
Finally, the noble Baroness, Lady Kennedy, called for consultations. I totally agree. This is the start of a national debate, I hope, and not the end of a national debate. As your Lordships have heard from the Benches behind me, we in our party have many diverse views. We are going to take the policy that I have outlined to our spring conference to have it adopted or modified by the party. I will be very interested to hear what the Conservative Front-Bench spokesman is going to do to sample the opinion of his party. The Populus poll shows that 64 per cent of his party supports nuclear weapons, so he will probably have a moderately easy time with the policy. What will the Labour Party do to sample public opinion? That stands at 45 per cent, which suggests that it has problems. I am happy to tell the House that the Populus poll shows that Liberal Democrats were at 52 per cent—exactly the same as the rest of the
24 Jan 2007 : Column 1184
8.42 pm
Lord Astor of Hever: My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Drayson, for arranging this very important debate. I echo his words in paying tribute to the skills and professionalism of our Vanguard crews and their support staff.
The House will know from what my noble friend Lord Howell said in his excellent opening speech that my party sees no difficulty in supporting the Government’s policy as set out in the White Paper. We believe that the arguments put forward represent the only responsible course of action.
My right honourable friend David Cameron, in his initial response to the White Paper in another place, said that,
“I agree with the Prime Minister both about the substance of this decision and about the timing. It is a vital matter for our national security, and it requires a long-term approach”.—[Official Report, Commons, 4/12/06; col. 24.]
Our reservations and questions, so far as the White Paper is concerned, relate not to the policy itself but rather to the will and ability of the Government to carry the policy proposed through, fully and in a timely manner. The policy set out in the White Paper will entail a short-service life extension for the present system. Will the Minister confirm when that programme will be formally authorised? The real argument is no longer about the nature and relevance of deterrence, nor is it about the use of nuclear weapons. It is about the decision that this country will retain, for the foreseeable future, a secure and recognised ability to respond conclusively, anywhere in the world, should circumstances demand it. To ensure that, we need to get right, first, the platform, secondly, the missiles, including their launch and guidance systems, thirdly, the warheads and, fourthly, the phasing and control of the costs.
On the platform, we accept that only submarines provide the necessary security and range. The right course is therefore to build an appropriate number of new submarines—the new Vanguards, for short. Whether the appropriate number is three or four does not require an immediate decision, but it has implications that will need to be weighed in the overall cost of investment. In their excellent speeches the noble Lords, Lord O’Neill and Lord Rodgers, called for a three-boat fleet. I tend to agree with the noble Lord, Lord Gilbert, in wishing to see a four-boat fleet, as all sorts of unforeseen circumstances can occur, and technology needs to be improved enormously before we reduce the number of submarines to three.
It has been suggested that Britain should wait as long as possible before making any decisions, so that our future needs might become clear. However, the future is always uncertain and there is no reason to suppose that it will become any more predictable than it is today. The Government estimate a 17-year period from starting detailed studies until the first patrol by the new submarines. We do not think that excessive, bearing in mind the difficulties encountered with the
24 Jan 2007 : Column 1185
It will be essential that industry collaborates far more than it has to date to drive down costs in the manner envisaged by the DIS, and the MoD must be consistent and clear about its operational requirements. The noble Baroness, Lady Symons, called in her excellent speech for the length of the procurement process to be shortened, and asked some important questions about how the contractor will be selected, about timetables, and about how costs will be monitored and controlled.
The building of submarines is an essential skill for which, for many reasons, we need to retain sovereign capability. The Defence Select Committee in the other place emphasised that if the Government want to continue to maintain their nuclear submarine capability—and its workforce—then there must be a continuous rhythm of work, especially once the Astute programme is finished and the Vanguard successor starts. The Select Committee was also concerned, as was the noble Lord, Lord Moonie, that we may be losing the skills to build and maintain a replacement for Trident. The shortage of engineers was of particular concern. What are the Government planning to do to address that?
Concerning the missiles, it is necessary to have a ballistic missile capability—because of their much greater range and more certain penetrative power—as well as conventionally armed TLAM cruise missiles, which we have now acquired. Ballistic missiles are the only system that can deliver the global effect at place and time of choice, with autonomy through national and international air space. For the missiles, we should be content to look to the United States in furtherance of existing detailed arrangements. It has been made sufficiently clear—not least in the evidence of the Ministry of Defence to the House of Commons Defence Committee—that a degree of procurement dependence does not carry with it operational dependence, notwithstanding cries to the contrary.
The United States is already committed to a life- extension programme for the Trident missiles themselves. If the United Kingdom is to participate it needs to make a decision this year, which may be driving the decision timescales as much as the lead time to build the new boats. What assurances have the Government sought and received from the Americans that we will be able to participate in the US Navy’s life- extension programme for the D5 missile? There is plenty of scope for Britain and the US to work more closely together on submarine, nuclear reactor and warhead design and build—as well as developing more affordable acquisition, operation and support strategies.
On warheads, the continued well publicised determination of Russia to retain and update its ballistic missiles, mentioned by the noble Lords, Lord Garden and Lord Rodgers, taken with the efforts of several other countries to acquire nuclear warhead capability, makes it self-evident that we should retain
24 Jan 2007 : Column 1186
On the cost of the new submarines, the Government will need to provide a more detailed explanation of how and from where they will find the money. When my honourable friend Julian Lewis asked the Prime Minister whether extra funds would be allocated outside the defence budget to pay for the renewal of the deterrent, the Prime Minister’s answer was that that was “very much sui generis ”. I have most of my Latin. Does that mean that the extra funding will be found or not? The noble Lord, Lord Drayson, gave some comfort on the issue in his opening speech, but that has concerned many speakers and I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Triesman, will reinforce the commitment given by the noble Lord, Lord Drayson.
The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Boyce, pointed out that the Armed Forces are already irresponsibly underfunded and must not suffer further from the continuation of the deterrent. My noble friend Lord Hamilton was concerned that the new submarines might come at the expense of the carriers, and I hope that the Minister will be able to reassure him on that point. Indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Drayson, went some way to reassure the House on that last week at Question Time, which we very much welcome.
The Royal Navy continues to have considerable conventional duties to perform, but the Government are busy mothballing ships to save money. The Navy does not want its conventional budget to be raided to pay for the new generation of nuclear deterrent. I hope that the Minister will address the chilling but probably accurate observations by my noble friend Lord Hamilton and the noble Lord, Lord Owen, on that issue.
My noble friend Lord Marlesford asked about reusing the existing designs of the Vanguard submarines. The noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, took a pop at the Liberal Democrat Front Bench and rightly pointed out that we should not deprive our children and grandchildren of the security benefits that we have enjoyed. The noble Lord enjoys taking a pop at me from time to time at Question Time, so I hope that he will not be embarrassed if I say that I agreed with most of his speech tonight.
Like my noble friend Lord Marlesford, I was a bit confused by the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Wallace of Saltaire. I always listen with great interest to his speeches, but I was surprised that he rehashed the argument that this is all about the Prime Minister’s legacy. It was a manifesto commitment and I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Garden, that the objective of a deterrent is to deter the use of other deterrents. I also agree with the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Boyce, that it would be unwise to abandon the security of those submarines. The noble and gallant Lord is a very distinguished submariner himself—the only speaker, I am sure, who has commanded a nuclear submarine. I hope that his speech will be carefully read—especially his advice
24 Jan 2007 : Column 1187
Just as we welcomed the line of policy in the SDR—as the noble Lord, Lord Garden, said, that is now nine years ago—that the Royal Navy will be provided with two new large aircraft carriers, so we welcome the policy to continue, for the foreseeable future, this country’s recognised ability to respond through the Royal Navy with a global reach.
As the noble Baroness, Lady Symons, said, we will be safer with this deterrent than without it, but, bearing in mind the appalling delays with the carriers, I hope that we will not see similar delays in drawing up and signing contracts for the new submarines.
8.55 pm
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Triesman): My Lords, I am very grateful to my noble friend Lord Drayson for his candid and eloquent presentation at the opening of the debate, and to the noble Lord, Lord Howell, for an outstandingly thoughtful response. I hope I do not embarrass him by saying that I am on the same page. This is a discussion about global discipline and the contribution to international security systems, and it is absolutely true that we are none of us islands unto ourselves in this system of global integration.
I thank all those who have taken part in the debate. I was very pleased to see that there is a good deal of cross-party support for many of the principles underlying the Government’s decision. That was clear from the summary given by the noble Lord, Lord Astor, a few moments ago. If the House does not mind, I shall immediately run through the issues that he put to me before I move on. First, he will not expect me to comment on the formal authorisation of the programme. That is never announced before contract; it is a commercial issue. The MoD will certainly take the lessons of the Astute programme very seriously; it is important to have clear operational requirements.
On skills, the noble Lord sought assurances about what we and the Americans have said about the D5 missile programme. I think it is helpful to note that there is agreement. I will return to the issue of cruise missile submarines later but will say now that we do not envisage the dual use of them. I will also return to the issue of funding, because it must be found. It is quite clear that it will not compromise the carriers. The Navy may take a little encouragement from the fact that HMS “Dauntless”, a £1 billion destroyer, was launched only yesterday and that another is on the way. This is all good news.
Whether or not the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall, is the devil’s advocate in this, he plainly discounts any role for the deterrent at the moment. Either one agrees or disagrees with him, and I disagree with him. The noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries, is plainly no advocate for the devil, but he made similar points about the credibility of the purpose of the programme, and I hope to show
24 Jan 2007 : Column 1188
On 4 December, the Prime Minister announced the Government’s decision to maintain our independent nuclear deterrent. He stated that we had decided to build a new class of submarines to act as a platform for the deterrent, and, further, that we had decided to participate in the United States life-extension programme for the D5 missile. Finally, he announced that we will now cut our stockpile of operationally available warheads to fewer than 160, a cut of nearly a half compared with the plans of the previous Government. He made it clear that he hoped for a substantial public and parliamentary debate on that process—a process which, as the noble Lord, Lord O’Neill, said, started with the party manifestos. It has been a consistent part of Conservative Party manifestos, and I believe that the debate has momentum in all the major political parties and well beyond, which is useful.
Critics of the Government’s decision have raised issues of morality, legality, hypocrisy, rationale and cost, which I shall look at in turn. There are issues of balance in all of them, as the noble Baroness, Lady Symons of Vernham Dean, said. I believe that the noble Lord, Lord Garden, set out some of them. I welcome the overall grasp of the subject injected into the debate by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Boyce. His knowledge of these matters probably goes well beyond that of almost anyone in the House. Moreover, it is objective knowledge. The noble Lord, Lord Garden, has shared in that to some extent, and he has done a fair bit, if I may compliment him, to re-establish some sense on his Benches that they will need to deal with the diverse views, as he put it.
First, on morality, the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, tested this ground. I do not entirely agree with my noble and learned friend Lord Archer and my noble friend Lady Kennedy, but I respect their views. Some have suggested that the possession of nuclear weapons is morally corrupting and cannot be justified under any circumstances. They are entitled to hold that opinion and I am entitled to disagree. Moral judgments are rarely simple. As Sir Michael Quinlan has said, any proponent of the absolutist moral argument against the possession of nuclear weapons must argue that, even if a Hitler were to possess nuclear weapons, it would be morally wrong for the United Kingdom to possess a counterbalancing deterrent force. The noble Lord, Lord Roberts, mentioned the blitz. I do not know what he thinks would have persuaded the Nazis to call off the Luftwaffe, but I believe that it was our forces and the will of the people of the United Kingdom not to live under a vile dictatorship.
For more than 50 years, as my noble friend Lord Gilbert said, Governments of the United Kingdom have judged the continued possession of a nuclear deterrent to be morally preferable. Why? Because the morally worse outcome is to accept a real risk of a nuclear attack on this country’s vital interests, which would of course have catastrophic consequences. The Government are firm in our view that the judgment
24 Jan 2007 : Column 1189
The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Manchester, who had generally welcomed the White Paper, spoke in this context of the role of ambiguity. He said that it was ethical to ask those questions. It may be ethical not to answer the questions. The answer may allow a power devoid of the ethics that we espouse to inflict the harm that we strive to avoid. Our aim by deterrence is to avoid use. The bones of the strategy developed over the decades have been well understood by the public without elaboration of hypothetical situations. My noble and learned friend Lord Archer asked what were the strategic purposes. They are to prevent Hiroshimas in a world where nuclear weapons cannot be uninvented.
By the way, we do not use megaton bombs, as was suggested. That is the point of having a deterrent. I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Roper. Given the moral equation here, renunciation makes no sense in the light of the dangers and insecurities of the world or the likely pattern of the period ahead.
I turn to legality. As my noble friend Lord Drayson said, it is entirely lawful for the UK to possess nuclear weapons, and for us to maintain and renew our capability. The UK is a recognised nuclear-weapons state under the non-proliferation treaty. Renewal of the Trident system is fully consistent with our international obligations, including those on disarmament under Article IV of the treaty. That article does not establish a timetable for unilateral disarmament, either nuclear or general, and does not state that replacement or updating of currently held systems is unlawful. Indeed, since the non-proliferation treaty came into force, all five nuclear-weapons states have taken steps to update their deterrents.
These are the facts pertinent to the legality of the UK’s continued possession of nuclear weapons. Nothing I have heard this evening changes that. The Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary have been clear in their insistence on more work on the non-proliferation treaty, and I have no doubt that they will continue to be clear in debate. The potential use of nuclear weapons—
Lord Archer of Sandwell: My Lords, is my noble friend suggesting that the distinction between the nuclear-weapons powers and the non-nuclear states was intended at the beginning to last into eternity and that the non-nuclear states are now content with that situation?
Lord Triesman: My Lords, I do not know about eternity but I take wholly the position that the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, raised in his question. Sine die is a more recent decision and is a reflection of the intention to have a stable system that recognises the reality of those who do and those who do not have weapons at the moment, without wishing to see those weapons extended across other countries. That has proved a sensible tactical provision. The noble Lord,
24 Jan 2007 : Column 1190
Article VI of the non-proliferation treaty places an obligation on all member states to pursue the necessary negotiations to achieve the goal of disarmament. The UK shares the goal of a world free from nuclear weapons and will continue, therefore, to press for multilateral negotiations towards a mutual, balanced and verifiable reduction in them.
The United Kingdom’s record on disarmament is outstanding. My noble friend Lady Symons helpfully elaborated on it and my noble and learned friend Lord Archer confirmed it. We have the smallest stockpile. I will not go through the issues of the single platform, the numbers and so on, but I believe that it has been successful. Some have suggested that we should go further and reduce the number of warheads to just 100, with 24 on patrol. I have been trying to multiply 24 by 3 and I cannot get to 100, but someone will no doubt tell me that my maths can be improved. This bears no relation to any detailed assessment of what will deter.
I understand that the Liberal Democrats have been through a process, but I believe that essentially their figure is plucked from the air. The Government’s figure of fewer than 160 reflects a careful, responsible reassessment of our minimum deterrence requirements based on military and civilian expert advice.
Lord Garden: My Lords, I am most grateful to the Minister. Does he think that 24 independently targetable warheads would not deter an enemy?
Lord Triesman: My Lords, the existence of any warhead would help to deter an enemy, but you have to have a credible system which is deployable at all times and capable of doing the whole job, not just a proportion of the job that sounds attractive on the day. In response to the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, the White Paper makes it clear that most of the six points are at the heart of the Government’s policy on non-proliferation. I want to confirm that. On the proposal for an international nuclear fuel bank, a point raised by the noble Baroness, Lady Williams, we are actively engaged with the IAEA to take forward those proposals, although I cannot say what the likely conclusions will be. We must pursue that discussion with great energy.
The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, and my noble friend Lord Judd mentioned the pattern of the work in which we need to engage to be credible. We continue to be active on disarmament internationally. In 1998, we ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. We support the proposal for a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty and the call for the immediate start of negotiations at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. Finally, as mentioned by a couple of noble Lords, we continue to make progress on the 13 practical steps towards nuclear disarmament agreed by consensus at the 2000 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference.
24 Jan 2007 : Column 1191
| Next Section | Back to Table of Contents | Lords Hansard Home Page |