Legal base	—
Department	Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Basis of consideration	Minister's letter of 14 December 2009
Previous Committee Report	HC 16-xviii (2007-08), chapter 14 (2 April 2008)
Discussed in Council	December 2008 European Council
Committee's assessment	Politically important
Committee's decision	Cleared (reported to the House on 2 April 2008); further information provided

Background

4.1  In June 2007 the European Council invited the then Secretary General/High Representative, Javier Solana, and the European Commission to draw up a joint report on "Climate Change and International Security". The 13-14 March 2008 Spring European Council welcomed it as underlining the importance of this issue, and invited the Council "to examine the paper and to submit recommendations on appropriate follow-up action, in particular, on how to intensify cooperation with third countries and regions regarding the impact of climate change on international security by December 2008 at the latest."[16]

The Joint Report

4.2  The report argues that climate change will have a growing and significant impact on global security, multiplying existing threats such as shortages of food and water, and exacerbating tensions and instability, particularly for states and regions that are already fragile and conflict-prone. It first examines thematically "some of the forms of conflicts driven by climate change", under seven headings:

—  Conflict over resources;

—  Economic damage and risk to coastal cities and critical infrastructure;

—  Loss of territory and border disputes;

—  Environmentally-induced migration;

—  Situations of fragility and radicalisation;

—  Tension over energy supply;

—  Pressure on international governance.

4.3  Then, noting that the EU's neighbours include some of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, e.g. North Africa and the Middle East, and that migratory pressure at the European Union's borders and political instability and conflicts could increase in the future, with a significant impact on Europe's energy supply routes, the Report illustrates how climate change is multiplying existing pressures in Africa, South Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia and the Arctic.

4.4  Finally, the Report considers how the instruments at the EU's disposal can be used alongside mitigation and adaptation policies to address the security risks. "Special consideration" should be given to the US, China, India, and "what the implications mean for the EU's long-term relations with Russia." The then-upcoming examination of the implementation of the 2003 European Security Strategy "should take account of the security dimension of climate change".

4.5  Areas recommended for further study were:

Enhancing capacities at the EU level, including monitoring and early warning regarding situations of state fragility and political radicalisation, tensions over resources and energy supplies, environmental and socio-economic stresses, threats to critical infrastructures and economic assets, border disputes, impact on human rights and potential migratory movements; and further building up of EU and Member State civil protection and disaster response capabilities;

EU multilateral leadership to promote global climate security, including the possible strengthening of international law, including the Law of the Sea, and consideration of "environmentally-triggered additional migratory stress in the further development of a comprehensive European migratory policy";

Cooperation with third countries, including giving more attention to the impact of climate change on security in the EU's cooperation and political dialogue instruments, its regional strategies and the EU's Global Climate Change Alliance with the most vulnerable developing countries, and examining the development of "an EU Arctic policy based on the evolving geo-strategy of the Arctic region, taking into account i.a. access to resources and the opening of new trade routes."

4.6  In his Explanatory Memorandum of 27 March 2008, the then Minister for Europe saw the EU as "in a unique position to respond to the impacts of climate change on international security, given its leading role in development, global climate policy and the wide array of tools and instruments at its disposal", and agreed with the report's view that "the security challenge plays to Europe's strengths, including its comprehensive approach to conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict reconstruction, and as a key proponent of effective multilateralism." He strongly welcomed the report as "an excellent starting point for deeper EU engagement on the foreign and security implications of climate change". He said that it was now increasingly recognised that climate change posed security — as well as economic and social — challenges, and that it was "therefore imperative that we achieve a secure climate and work together with the EU and external partners to build the climate challenge into security planning".

Our assessment

4.7  Although not the sort of document that we customarily considered (it being neither draft legislation nor a Commission Communication), this was not the first such joint paper that we had asked to be deposited because of its inherent importance and potential widespread policy implications. We were accordingly grateful to the Minister for his informative Explanatory Memorandum and for his views, and cleared the document.

4.8  This dimension of the EU's security policy could, the Committee felt, only grow. While this Report was not directly relevant to other documents on various other EU policy responses to climate change that we had recommended for debate at our meeting on 7 March 2009 (which dealt with the promotion of energy from renewable resources; carbon capture and storage; reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020; and review of the emissions trading scheme),[17] its relevance to EU stability and prosperity was already manifest in the shape of the widespread concern over economic migration. We therefore looked forward to hearing more from the Minister in due course about whatever proposals were put forward for consideration by the December 2008 European Council.[18]

The Minister's letter of 8 December 2009

4.9  In his letter, the Minister for Europe at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Chris Bryant) encloses a Joint Commission/Council Secretariat/Presidency follow-up report of 25 November 2009, which outlines the progress made in the 18 months since the original report and makes recommendations for next steps.

4.10  The Minister notes that the Foreign and Commonwealth Office has been closely involved in this work, sitting as a member on the informal EU steering group once it was extended from the original troika, and in the development of the progress report. He describes is as "in line with UK policy as stated in both 2008 National Security Strategy and the 2009 updated version", and continues as follows:

"Climate change will have significant implications for international security, and the impacts of climate change greatly raise the risk of future instability. Climate change will threaten the basis of our current prosperity and security, through serious impacts on resource distribution and availability, stress in food and water availability, increased migration, and exacerbating the challenges that poverty and poor governance pose."

4.11  The progress report, the Minister says:

"… makes strong recommendations for implementing policies to ensure the EU makes the necessary plans to deal with the security consequences of unavoidable climate change whilst acknowledging that we can only limit the threat to our security through reducing emissions to limit global average temperature rise to 2 degrees C."

4.12  The Minister summarises the report's key recommendations thus:

• CCIS needs to have a more formal home and be integrated into the new structures created by the Lisbon treaty.
• CCIS should be integrated into current EU policies and strategies including on development, crisis management, conflict prevention, early warning systems and humanitarian assistance.
• The EU should commission further research to understand the security implications in more detail, particularly looking at the interlinkages between food, energy, water and demographics.
• The EU should drive forward debate in the UN and enhance cooperation between UN agencies.
• The debate needs to continue to be widened particularly to include regional organisations."

4.13  The Minister then says that what he describes as:

"… the process of implementing and operationalising the report's recommendations will help the UK in following a similar process in preparation for any potential future security review or update of the National Security Strategy. Part of the process for UK policy development is under the Departmental Adaptation Plans, which departments agreed to complete as part of the Climate Change Act 2008 follow-up due for publication in March 2010."

4.14  The Minister concludes by strongly welcoming this report and the increasing interest among EU member states and other countries, globally, on this issue, and by saying that he will endeavour to keep the Committee more regularly informed of progress in this area and any future work relating to this report.

4.15  The Minister also encloses the Conclusions adopted by the 8 December 2009 General Affairs and External Relations Council, which are reproduced at Annex 1 of this chapter of our Report.

Conclusion

4.16  We are grateful to the Minister for this further information, which we are reporting to the House because of the widespread interest in the issues discussed.

Annex 1: Council conclusions on Climate change and security[19]

"1. The Council endorsed the "Joint Progress Report and Follow-up recommendations on Climate Change and International Security, (CCIS) as a follow-up to the Joint Paper in March 2008 to the European Council by the High Representative and the Commission, the report of the implementation of the European Security Strategy (ESS) presented to the Council in December 2008, and the report on the implementation of the Joint Paper presented to the Council in December 2008.

"2. The Council stated that climate change and its international security implications are part of EU's wider agenda for climate, energy and the Common Foreign and Security Policy, and therefore central to the endeavours of the EU. This adds an incentive to strengthen EU's comprehensive efforts to reduce emissions and to increase its energy security.

"3. The Council underlined the possible international security implications of climate change, and the potential risk for increased natural disasters and conflicts over scarcer resources, its effect on migration and state and regional instability, which will add additional stress on the increasingly interdependent global system and structures. This is a global challenge that requires global solutions.

"4. The Council concluded that more vulnerable parts of human society in developing countries and emerging economies will be adversely affected, and will need our support, but developed countries will also suffer. Adaptation to climate change, sound policies on displacement, migration and conflict prevention are the most effective ways of dealing with the international security implications of climate change. We will address these issues in a spirit of partnership between developed and developing countries and confirm our commitment to take bold action on climate change mitigation in order to limit temperature increases to below a threshold of 2C and to effectively address adaptation in the Copenhagen summit. An ambitious and comprehensive international agreement (UNFCCC) will be an important factor in preventing and reducing the security implications of climate change.

"5. The Council welcomed that the UN has taken a leading role on CCIS demonstrated by the UN General Assembly resolution A/63/281 of June 2009, expressing deep concern for the possible security implications of climate change, followed by the Secretary General's report A/64/350 on Climate Change and its possible Security Implications of September which was discussed in the UN General Assembly in November this year. The Council recalled the UN Security Council thematic debate on Energy, Security and Climate in April 2007 and looked forward to further debates in the UN Security Council on the issue. The EU stands ready to support this global endeavour. In order to play a role commensurate to its commitment, the EU needs to call upon the full range of policies and instruments at its disposal.

"6. The Council noted with satisfaction that considerable progress has been made to enhance EU capacities for early warning, analysis and response to climate-induced international security implications and to foster international cooperation with the aim to create dialogue, common awareness, share analysis and cooperatively address the challenges in all relevant existing fora, including the UN.

"7. The Council supported the recommendations in the Progress Report; to promote EU multilateral leadership in cooperation with the UN and third parties, reinforce the EU´s institutional capacity to deal with CCIS in the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty, include security aspects in climate change in EU development assistance, build knowledge, hone and sharpen the EU´s crisis management capabilities relevant to dealing with CCIS and to follow up the implementation through a report to the Council during the latter part of 2010."

17   See HC 16-xiii (2007-08), chapters 1-4, 7 and 8 (27 February 2008). See http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmgeneral/euro/080513/80513s01.htm and http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmgeneral/euro/080422/80422s01.htm for the record of those debates. Back

18   See headnote: HC 16-xviii (2007-08), chapter 14 (2 April 2008).  Back

19   Available at http://www.se2009.eu/polopoly_fs/1.27021!menu/standard/file/111827.pdf.  Back