Conclusions and recommendations
1. The Department's existing cost estimates
do not provide an accurate baseline against which to measure progress.
The forthcoming revised cost estimates should distinguish between
future deterrent costs and the general overheads of the submarine
industrial base, and provide clarity as to how the Department
intends to deal with VAT, inflation and contingency.
2. In September 2009, the Department has to
make key decisions about the submarine design which will have
implications for the procurement and support costs of the programme
for decades to come.
Given the importance of these decisions, the Department should
commission independent validation of the assumptions underpinning
its cost models and assess the reasonableness of its estimates
using historic trend analysis.
3. Suppliers to the submarine industry constitute
a highly specialised industry sector, with a number of monopoly
suppliers. Given this imperfect market environment, value for
money will be hard to achieve.
The Department should specify exactly how it will ensure it obtains
value for money from its suppliers and set out performance indicators
for the programme, against which it will report to Parliament.
4. The United Kingdom's new submarine will
incorporate an American-supplied missile compartment. As the current
Vanguard fleet will go out of service in the 2020s, the United
Kingdom's programme is running ahead of the United States' programme.
The United Kingdom will therefore have to make key design decisions
on a replacement submarine before the United States.
Given the unavoidable dependence on the American programme, the
Department should analyse the lessons from other projects where
the Department has been dependent on the United States for critical
elements of technology. The Department should use this analysis
to inform the development of its proposed communications plan.
5. Given the lack of time contingency for
the submarine construction programme, some overlap between the
design and production phases of the programme is likely to be
necessary. The Senior
Responsible Owner needs to set out how he will trade between the
risks and opportunities involved in managing overlaps, and agree
an explicit change management mechanism with other departmental
teams and commercial partners at the outset of the project to
deal with emerging difficulties in a timely manner.
6. The programme's Senior Responsible Owner
role still does not conform to Office of Government Commerce guidance.
The Department should review what prevents it moving to an arrangement
which conforms more closely to Office of Government Commerce guidance
and set out ways to redress the current shortfall as part of its
Initial Gate submission.
7. The Senior Responsible Owner does not have
direct line management responsibility for some Programme Board
members and must therefore work in part by influence and consensus.
The Department is confident that it can align incentives and reward
good behaviour when individual Programme Board members have conflicting
priorities. However, it did not explain persuasively how it would
achieve this goal and should clearly set out how this can be done.
|