MISC 103: Letter to the Chairman of the Committee from the

Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs:

UN climate change negotiations in Copenhagen

There are now approximately 50 days to go before the UN climate change negotiations in Copenhagen. The negotiations still hang in the balance. As Foreign Secretary, I have a strong interest in securing an ambitious global agreement. This is an issue that affects the future security and prosperity of our countries. I would like to share with you some recent work by UK climate scientists that illustrates very clearly why this is the case.

On 22 October, Ed Miliband, the UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, and I will publicly release a world map developed by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, showing the implications for the world of four degrees of warming. I enclose a copy. An interactive version will be available on www.ActOnCopenhagen.gov.uk. Senior scientists from the Met Office Hadley Centre and other highly respected research institutions have developed this map and it has been tested by Peer Review. It builds on the Fourth Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) but incorporates the most recent scientific findings to represent the latest information we have on climate impacts at four degrees.

The map shows significant temperature rises on land, with the hottest days of the year in many highly populated areas being between 6 and 12 degrees C (11-22F) higher than they are now. It sets out the impact of sea-level rises that could put 150 million more people at risk from flooding in Asia and other vulnerable regions. It examines the impacts on agricultural production, with potentially hundreds of millions more people at risk from hunger, and tells us that within this century climate change could lead to a situation where more than a third of the global population is living in areas with limited per capita availability of water.

The map demonstrates why we need a global agreement at Copenhagen that will keep warming to a maximum of two degrees. If we fail to achieve this, then four degrees of warming during the course of this century is the most likely outcome from a Business As Usual global emissions trajectory.

The geopolitical implications of the physical, economic and human impacts highlighted by the map would be far reaching and transformational. Climate change will increasingly affect all of our foreign policy decisions, changing not just the physical landscape but the political context and choices we have to work with. It could have a potentially devastating impact on our national security and prosperity, threatening our access to essential resources, our infrastructure, and our social and economic stability.

This is why I am calling on Foreign Ministers in key countries to join me in a diplomatic surge to build momentum and create the global political will to secure the ambitious, fair and effective global deal that we need at Copenhagen.

I have written today to my counterparts in Major Economies Forum, the EU and other partners to draw attention to the implications of the Met Office Hadley Centre work for Foreign Ministries, and to seek their support and cooperation as we try to build the global political conditions for success at Copenhagen.

Rt Hon David Miliband MP

Secretary of State

Foreign and Commonwealth Office

16 October 2009