Spring Supplementary Estimate 2008-09 - Defence Committee Contents


Conclusions and recommendations


The Ministry of Defence is seeking a net increase in resources and capital of £1,297 million—in cash terms a net increase of £627 million. This is the additional sum of money required by the MoD to fund its activity over and above the sums already voted in the Main and Winter Supplementary Estimates. (Paragraph 1)

2.  We expect the Ministry of Defence, in its response to this Report, to set out in more detail the nature of the resource pressures within Defence Equipment and Support, and the reasons for that organisation's revised lower forecast. We would also be grateful for a note setting out the nature of the losses from Defence Estates for which these additional requests compensate, and an explanation of whether these losses are expected to recur in the next Financial Year. (Paragraph 3)

3.  In total, the MoD will have sought an extra £4,517 million for operations in 2008-09, far beyond the estimate of "at least £2 billion" set out in the Main Estimates at the beginning of the Financial Year. (Paragraph 4)

4.  We reiterate our belief that the amount of time committees currently have to analyse the Supplementary Estimates properly, to seek further information where necessary on any areas of particular interest, concern or uncertainty, and then to consider a draft Report, agree it and publish it before the debate and decision on those Estimates in the House is insufficient. (Paragraph 5)

5.  We request a note from the Ministry of Defence setting out the exact position with regard to the likely eventual benefit for the MoD budget. (Paragraph 6)

6.  We are fully aware of the volatility of operational costs for both Iraq and Afghanistan and appreciate the MoD's efforts in providing the House of Commons and ourselves with as accurate a forecast of such costs as it can. Given that the MoD, when its Spring Supplementary Estimate goes before the House of Commons for approval, will have sought over twice the amount it set down as a likely minimum for operational costs at the time of the last Main Estimate, we hope that the next forecast in 2009-10 will prove more robust an assessment of operational costs and closer to the eventual out-turn. (Paragraph 7)

7.  We expect in response to this Report a note setting out in detail what the very substantial contingency in the Spring Supplementary Estimate for the Iraq drawdown is particularly intended or expected to cover. (Paragraph 9)

8.  We would expect the response to this Report to set out the extent to which the cost of the drawdown (as opposed to the cost of the continued, albeit reduced, presence in Iraq) will continue into Financial Year 2009-10, and what the magnitude of any continuing cost of drawdown will be in that new Financial Year. (Paragraph 10)

9.  The MoD points out that it now expects UOR expenditure to be no more than £1.054 billion in this Financial Year, £9 million less than expected at the time of the Winter Supplementary Estimate and £11 million short of the limit agreed with the Treasury. Consequently, the MoD does not "anticipate any impact on the MoD's 2010-11 budget or equipment programme" from expenditure on UORs in this Financial Year. We welcome this reassurance. We would welcome clarification from the MoD as to the exact make-up of the £1.054 billion UOR cost figure and how the forecast cost has reduced at the same time that another £65 million is sought. (Paragraph 15)

10.  We would welcome a categorical restatement that any cost in excess of the limit agreed for UORs between the Department and the Treasury will fall in part on the MoD in Financial Year 2010-11 and not before, the Department bearing half of the excess cost. We would also welcome some indication of expected UOR costs in 2009-10, notification of the agreed UOR limit for that year, and an explanation of how the cost of the Protected Mobility Package announced on 29 October 2008 falls within this year's and next year's UOR limit. We remain concerned about the potential impact in the future of UORs on the MoD's core budget and we will return to this subject in an inquiry later this year. (Paragraph 16)

11.  We are pleased to note that, setting aside the extra £500 million in Indirect Resource costs, over 90% of which is for the drawdown in Iraq, the margin of change between the Winter and Spring Supplementary Estimates has not been as great as it has been in the past. We commend the MoD for undertaking what is clearly an increasingly robust analysis of forecast costs throughout the Financial Year. (Paragraph 17)

12.  We recommend that the House of Commons approve the request for resources set out in the MoD's Spring Supplementary Estimate. The £1,297 million, in large part requested to meet the forecast additional cost of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan during this Financial Year (including contingency provision for drawdown in the former theatre), represents a significant sum of public money, but we believe that the task our Armed Forces are carrying out is one that requires such a significant resource—especially in terms of new equipment and force protection, both so essential to their mission abroad. (Paragraph 18)



 
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