Conclusions and recommendations
The Ministry of Defence is seeking a net increase
in resources and capital of £1,297 millionin cash
terms a net increase of £627 million. This is the additional
sum of money required by the MoD to fund its activity over and
above the sums already voted in the Main and Winter Supplementary
Estimates. (Paragraph 1)
2. We expect the Ministry
of Defence, in its response to this Report, to set out in more
detail the nature of the resource pressures within Defence Equipment
and Support, and the reasons for that organisation's revised lower
forecast. We would also be grateful for a note setting out the
nature of the losses from Defence Estates for which these additional
requests compensate, and an explanation of whether these losses
are expected to recur in the next Financial Year. (Paragraph 3)
3. In total, the MoD
will have sought an extra £4,517 million for operations in
2008-09, far beyond the estimate of "at least £2 billion"
set out in the Main Estimates at the beginning of the Financial
Year. (Paragraph 4)
4. We reiterate our
belief that the amount of time committees currently have to analyse
the Supplementary Estimates properly, to seek further information
where necessary on any areas of particular interest, concern or
uncertainty, and then to consider a draft Report, agree it and
publish it before the debate and decision on those Estimates in
the House is insufficient. (Paragraph 5)
5. We request a note
from the Ministry of Defence setting out the exact position with
regard to the likely eventual benefit for the MoD budget. (Paragraph
6)
6. We are fully aware
of the volatility of operational costs for both Iraq and Afghanistan
and appreciate the MoD's efforts in providing the House of Commons
and ourselves with as accurate a forecast of such costs as it
can. Given that the MoD, when its Spring Supplementary Estimate
goes before the House of Commons for approval, will have sought
over twice the amount it set down as a likely minimum for operational
costs at the time of the last Main Estimate, we hope that the
next forecast in 2009-10 will prove more robust an assessment
of operational costs and closer to the eventual out-turn. (Paragraph
7)
7. We expect in response
to this Report a note setting out in detail what the very substantial
contingency in the Spring Supplementary Estimate for the Iraq
drawdown is particularly intended or expected to cover. (Paragraph
9)
8. We would expect
the response to this Report to set out the extent to which the
cost of the drawdown (as opposed to the cost of the continued,
albeit reduced, presence in Iraq) will continue into Financial
Year 2009-10, and what the magnitude of any continuing cost of
drawdown will be in that new Financial Year. (Paragraph 10)
9. The MoD points
out that it now expects UOR expenditure to be no more than £1.054
billion in this Financial Year, £9 million less than expected
at the time of the Winter Supplementary Estimate and £11
million short of the limit agreed with the Treasury. Consequently,
the MoD does not "anticipate any impact on the MoD's 2010-11
budget or equipment programme" from expenditure on UORs in
this Financial Year. We welcome this reassurance. We would welcome
clarification from the MoD as to the exact make-up of the £1.054
billion UOR cost figure and how the forecast cost has reduced
at the same time that another £65 million is sought. (Paragraph
15)
10. We would welcome
a categorical restatement that any cost in excess of the limit
agreed for UORs between the Department and the Treasury will fall
in part on the MoD in Financial Year 2010-11 and not before, the
Department bearing half of the excess cost. We would also welcome
some indication of expected UOR costs in 2009-10, notification
of the agreed UOR limit for that year, and an explanation of how
the cost of the Protected Mobility Package announced on 29 October
2008 falls within this year's and next year's UOR limit. We remain
concerned about the potential impact in the future of UORs on
the MoD's core budget and we will return to this subject in an
inquiry later this year. (Paragraph 16)
11. We are pleased
to note that, setting aside the extra £500 million in Indirect
Resource costs, over 90% of which is for the drawdown in Iraq,
the margin of change between the Winter and Spring Supplementary
Estimates has not been as great as it has been in the past. We
commend the MoD for undertaking what is clearly an increasingly
robust analysis of forecast costs throughout the Financial Year.
(Paragraph 17)
12. We recommend that
the House of Commons approve the request for resources set out
in the MoD's Spring Supplementary Estimate. The £1,297 million,
in large part requested to meet the forecast additional cost of
operations in Iraq and Afghanistan during this Financial Year
(including contingency provision for drawdown in the former theatre),
represents a significant sum of public money, but we believe that
the task our Armed Forces are carrying out is one that requires
such a significant resourceespecially in terms of new equipment
and force protection, both so essential to their mission abroad.
(Paragraph 18)
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