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Select Committee on Treasury First Report


6  THE INDIVIDUAL SPENDING SETTLEMENTS

Determining the baselines and related reporting issues

65. As we noted in June 2007, the process for the 2007 Comprehensive Spending Review differed significantly from that for previous Spending Reviews in the extent to which individual departmental settlements preceded the final spending announcement. Five departments agreed their spending allocations up to 2010-11 at the time of the 2006 Budget; six further settlements were announced in the 2006 Pre-Budget Report, with three more announced in the 2007 Budget.[150] The spending settlement for the Ministry of Defence was announced in July 2007.[151] In June 2007, we commented on the marked variation in the quality of the information provided about the early settlements, with many allocations being expressed only in terms of a real terms percentage increase or reduction.[152] As we noted then, settlements expressed in these terms had limited value in terms of the information provided because the actual baselines of expenditure in 2007-08 that would be used for settlements were not generally stated.[153]

66. The baselines of expenditure in 2007-08 were set out in the final Comprehensive Spending Review documentation.[154] The departmental figures given there did not amount to the total expenditure within Departmental Expenditure Limits (£344.6 billion) provided in the final row of the relevant table, and the initial documentation did not give an account of the differences, amounting to around £3.5 billion. The Treasury subsequently explained:

    As a routine part of the spending review process, to ensure both equitable treatment between departments and that ongoing provision is not made for programmes that do not carry forward into the next spending round, forward plans are determined by allocations to a department's baseline rather than in-year spending plans. Baselines therefore differ from in-year plans in that they exclude time-limited and one-off items of expenditure.[155]

The Treasury provided us with information on expenditure by departments in 2007-08 including such time-limited and one-off items, which is published with this Report.[156]

67. The Chief Secretary and Treasury officials made it clear that agreeing baselines for expenditure was an important and recurring feature of spending negotiations between the Treasury and spending departments. The Chief Secretary also pointed out that it would be wrong to base expenditure increases on estimated outturns for the baseline year.[157] He indicated that he was willing to examine whether the documentation supporting the Comprehensive Spending Review could have explained the reasons for the differences between the sets of figures more clearly.[158]

68. We accept that it is appropriate for the baselines for departmental expenditure within a Spending Review to be based on spending which excludes certain time-limited and one-off items of expenditure. However, the use of baselines which differ substantially from expected outturns for 2007-08 has presentational implications which the Government may not have clearly acknowledged in the documentation accompanying the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review. For example, actual levels of expenditure within Departmental Expenditure Limits by the Department of Health and the Ministry of Defence are forecast to rise by an annual average of 3.4% and 0.5% respectively between 2007-08 and 2010-11, compared with the headline increases of 3.9% and 1.5% from the agreed baselines in 2007-08. We recommend that the documentation accompanying future Spending Reviews include up-to-date figures on forecast outturns for the baseline year, as well as baselines used for the purposes of spending allocations, and an account of the differences between those sets of figures.

Settlements for devolved administrations

69. The overall annual average rate of increase in real terms in public expenditure within Departmental Expenditure Limits in the period up to 2010-11 from the 2007-08 baseline including time-limited and one-off items of expenditure is 2.1%.[159] The annual average increases in the funding provided to the devolved administrations over the same period are 1.8% in the case of the Scottish Executive, 2.4% in the case of the Welsh Assembly Government and 1.7% in the case of the Northern Ireland Executive.[160] The Chief Secretary and Treasury officials confirmed that these rates of increase were a result of the application of the Barnett formula. The rates of increase differed in part because of areas of increase in spending—such as spending by the Department for International Development—which did not affect the Barnett formula and in part because the formula was designed to provide the devolved administrations with the same absolute nominal increase per head as United Kingdom departments received in England; rates of increase were lower because the baseline levels of spending per head were higher.[161] The Chief Secretary indicated that the adjustments to the baselines of expenditure in 2007-08 by United Kingdom Government departments in England had no effect on the actual spending allocations to the devolved administrations.[162] The Chancellor of the Exchequer also indicated that, in accordance with established practice under the Barnett formula, spending allocations to the Department of Transport in relation to the Crossrail project were reflected in the total amounts available to Scottish Executive, which was a consequence of the Government's policy to apply the Barnett formula consistently.[163]

The local government funding settlement

70. The 2007 Comprehensive Spending Review announced that resource Departmental Expenditure Limit support for local government would increase by an average of 1% in real terms over the period up to 2010-11.[164] The Chancellor of the Exchequer stated that the Government had "provided sufficient resources to ensure that local authorities can keep council tax rises substantially below 5%".[165] The settlement assumes that £4.9 billion of annual net cash-releasing value for money savings will be achieved by local government by 2010-11, including up to £1.8 billion of annual savings by that date from "business process improvement and collaboration initiatives", and up to £2.8 billion of annual savings by the same year from "smarter procurement".[166]

71. Mr Chote questioned whether the initial spending settlement for local government would prove realistic, or whether there might be subsequent pressure for additional central government support to prevent faster rises in council tax bills.[167] Professor Talbot suggested that the efficiency targets for local government were demanding and, in view of the increased demands placed on local authorities, saw the overall settlement as "a very, very stiff challenge to … local government".[168]

72. The Chief Secretary indicated that he had no wish to see the pattern repeated whereby an initial allocation of central support for local authorities had to be revisited.[169] He thought that the overall allocation met the Local Government Association's requirements for "business as usual" spending. He pointed to increased spending flexibility in relation to grants that had previously been ring-fenced and funding for concessionary fares. While he recognised that it was a "challenging settlement", he thought that it offered both growth and flexibility.[170] Treasury officials pointed to the fact that local government was "ahead of the game" in producing cash-releasing efficiency savings during the 2004 Spending Review period,[171] and the Chief Secretary also drew attention to increased central government funding for local authority value for money initiatives.[172]

Spending on health and social care

73. In May 2006, planned expenditure on the National Health Service in England in 2007-08 amounted to £93,261 million, including planned capital expenditure of £6,199 million.[173] By May 2007, planned expenditure on the National Health Service in England in 2007-08 had been scaled back to £91,775 million, including capital plans for £4,177 million.[174] By October 2007, the estimated outturn of expenditure on the NHS in England was £90.7 billion.[175] For the purposes of the spending settlement announced in the 2007 Comprehensive Spending Review, the baseline for expenditure on the NHS in England was £90.4 billion.[176] The Chief Secretary, who had been a Health Minister at the time of the revisions of capital expenditure in the Spring of 2007, stated that the downward revision was necessary to ensure that the spending assumptions reported to Parliament were "reliable", "taut", "realistic" and "credible".[177] One effect of successive downward revisions relating to NHS spending in 2007-08 has been to establish a baseline in relation to which planned expenditure on the NHS in England can be reported as rising on average in real terms by 4.0% a year over the period covered by the Comprehensive Spending Review.

74. As part of the Comprehensive Spending Review, the Government announced that direct funding for social care would increase by £190 million to £1.5 billion by 2010-11 and that the Government would consult on reform of the public support and care system.[178] The Chief Secretary accepted that "to some degree social care has been a neglected area in recent times" and that there were "significant" pressures on local authority social care funding.[179] He thought that "the time has come to make some searching assessment of how we are going to fund social care into the future".[180] The Chancellor of the Exchequer pointed out that the lead responsibility for funding social care remained with local authorities and that the Government "can reasonably expect local authorities who have a great deal of responsibility in this area also to make funds available".[181]

Education spending

75. In the 2006 Budget, the then Chancellor of the Exchequer set out a "long-term aim" for State spending per pupil to match the average level of spending per pupil in private sector day schools in 2005-06 of £8,000 per pupil. Treasury officials told us at the time that there was "no timetable attached" to this "pledge". On the basis of the Comprehensive Spending Review settlement for education, spending in the State sector is expected to rise from £4,800 per pupil in 2005-06 to £6,600 per pupil in 2010-11 (the equivalent of £5,800 per pupil in 2005-06 prices). The Institute for Fiscal Studies has forecast that, if education spending were to continue to rise in line with the rates of spending increase now set for the period from 2008-09 to 2010-11, the level of private sector spending per pupil in 2005-06 would be matched by the level of State sector spending per pupil in 2020-21. Treasury officials indicated to us following the 2007 Budget that spending announcements since the 2006 Budget had provided for around one-fifth of the expenditure required to match private sector spending levels per pupil in 2005-06 in real terms.[182] The Chief Secretary re-stated that there was no timetable for meeting the original target, but also referred to forecasts of education spending per pupil in the independent sector in 2010-11.[183] We recommend that the Government, in its response to this Report, clarify whether its ambition to match independent sector spending per pupil in schools relates to a static target, of such spending per pupil in 2005-06, albeit updated so as to be expressed in real terms, or a moving target, relating to projected future levels of spending per pupil in the independent sector.

The Home Office and the Ministry of Justice

76. In the 2006 Budget, the then Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a Home Office spending settlement that would see that Department's budget remain constant in real terms over the years 2008-09 to 2010-11. In January 2007, the then Chief Secretary told us that "I am satisfied, and the Home Secretary is satisfied, that he can manage his department within the resources that have been provided for the Home Office".[184] The then Chief Secretary also stated that "The benefit for the Home Office of having that early settlement was a really quite unprecedented degree of certainty about the Department's future funding for, in that case, a whole five-year period".[185]

77. On 29 March 2007, the Prime Minister announced his intention to create a Ministry of Justice, moving the National Offender Management Service and lead responsibility for criminal law and sentencing policy from the Home Office to the Department for Constitutional Affairs. In June 2007, we concluded that the value of early spending settlements on a departmental basis for the Home Office and the Departmental for Constitutional Affairs might be diminished as a result of the subsequent decision to transfer some Home Office functions to a new Ministry of Justice. We recommended that the Government clarify its funding intentions with regard to the Home Office and the Ministry of Justice at an early stage and in advance of the final outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review, stating clearly whether the new Departments will be bound by the combined totals agreed by the Home Office and the Department for Constitutional Affairs and providing a breakdown of the expenditure allocation between the Departments.[186] In response, the Government stated that "the early spending settlements announced at the 2006 Budget and the 2006 Pre-Budget Report have not been re-opened. These provide the basis for the resources the new departments will have available over the spending review period."[187]

78. In announcing the outcome of the 2007 Comprehensive Spending Review, the Chancellor of the Exchequer stated that there would be a new single budget for intelligence and security, including £700 million for the next three years for the Home Office for its work in combating the terrorist threat.[188] The budget of the Home Office is now expected to rise by 1.1% a year on average in real terms over the period covered by the Comprehensive Spending Review.[189] The Chief Secretary told us that he believed that the settlement gave the Home Office the resources needed to take forward neighbourhood policing, but confirmed that final decisions about the use of additional funds, including final allocations for terrorism and for neighbourhood policing, were a matter for the Home Office.[190]

79. The budget of the Ministry of Justice is planned to fall by 1.7% a year in real terms on average over the period covered by the Comprehensive Spending Review.[191] In July 2006, the then Home Secretary announced plans to expand prison capacity by 8,000 places by 2012.[192] In announcing the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review, the Chancellor of the Exchequer said:

    Overall, I am allocating additional resources to the Home Office and the Ministry of Justice that will now rise to £20 billion by 2010, as we … build 9,500 extra prison places …[193]

In oral evidence, the Chief Secretary confirmed that only 8,500 additional prison places were funded within the Comprehensive Spending Review settlement. An allocation had been made for the further 1,000 prison places, but the timing of those places was dependent upon the outcome of the review of the prison estate being conduct by Lord Carter.[194]



150   HC (2006-07) 279, para 11 Back

151   HC Deb, 25 July 2007, cols 865-867 Back

152   HC (2006-07) 279, para 105 Back

153   Ibid., para 54 Back

154   Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review 2007, Table 1.3, p 12 and Annex D Back

155   Ev 44 Back

156   Ev 44-45 Back

157   Qq 5-6 Back

158   Q 4 Back

159   Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review 2007, Table 1.3, p 12 Back

160   Ibid. Back

161   Qq 104-109 Back

162   Q 103 Back

163   HC (2007-08) 54, Qq 363-376 Back

164   Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review 2007, Annex D6, p 221 Back

165   HC Deb, 9 October 2007, col 173 Back

166   Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review 2007, para D6.6, p 223 Back

167   HC (2007-08) 54, Q 41 Back

168   Ibid., Q 117 Back

169   Q 129 Back

170   Q 132 Back

171   HC (2007-08) 54, Q 139 Back

172   Q 134 Back

173   Department of Health, Department of Health: Departmental Report 2006, May 2006, Cm 6814, Annexes A2 and A3, pp 139, 140 Back

174   Department of Health, Department of Health: Departmental Report 2007, May 2007, Cm 7093, Figure A.1, p 192 Back

175   Ev 44 Back

176   Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review 2007, Table D3, p 207 Back

177   Q 85 Back

178   Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review 2007, Annex D2, p 204 Back

179   Qq 136-137 Back

180   Q 138 Back

181   HC (2007-08) 54, Q 338 Back

182   HC (2006-07) 389-I, para 83 Back

183   Qq 95-96 Back

184   HC (2006-07) 279, para 46 Back

185   Ibid., para 12 Back

186   Ibid., paras 46-49 Back

187   HC (2006-07) 1027, p 3 Back

188   HC Deb, 9 October 2007, col 169 Back

189   Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review 2007, Table 1.3, p 12 Back

190   Qq 118-121; Ev 46-47 Back

191   Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review 2007, Table 1.3, p 12 Back

192   Budget 2007, para 6.93, p 163 Back

193   HC Deb, 9 October 2007, col 169 Back

194   Qq 87-91 Back


 
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