New EU-Russia agreement?
224. The most immediate question facing the EU as
regards its relationship with Russia is whether to try to launch
negotiations on a PCA successor agreement as soon as possible.
Given Poland's current stance, the launching of PCA successor
talks would require at a minimum the resolution of the Polish-Russian
trade dispute.
225. In its memorandum to our inquiry, the FCO said
that it believed "it would be better for talks to open on
a successor to the PCA sooner rather than later."[498]
However, when he gave oral evidence, the Minister for Europe said
that the UK was "less tied to a specific time scale"
for any new agreement.[499]
226. The FCO supports the opening of negotiations
on an EU-Russia PCA successor agreement because it regards the
negotiations themselves as a potential mechanism for engaging
Russia, "critically as well as cooperatively", on issues
of importance to the UK.[500]
The FCO told us that "The negotiating mandate covers all
the areas that matter to us".[501]
In October, the Foreign Secretary told us that the UK would like
to "get on with [the PCA] with the clear view that there
are responsibilities as well as rights associated with it for
Russia. It contains things that Russia wants, and we want it to
behave in a responsible way to get them."[502]
Since Russia's refusal to extradite Andrey Lugovoy in the Litvinenko
case, the UK has been seeking to expand the EU negotiating mandate
to include extradition issues, although it appeared that several
Member States might resist such a move.[503]
227. Against the FCO's wish to pursue the opening
of talks, our witnesses offered a number of arguments against
pressing for an early start to PCA successor negotiations, whether
or not the Polish-Russian dispute is resolved. For example, Mr
Clark argued that Russia was not complying with agreements that
it had already signed, such as the existing PCA and the Energy
Charter Treaty. Under these circumstances, according to Mr Clark,
signing a new agreement with Russia would encourage its practice
of non-compliance, whereas holding off might form part of a strategy
of encouraging Russia to respect its international obligations.
In Mr Clark's view, "the EU should make clear that it isn't
prepared to sign new agreements with Russia until Russia is willing
to respect the agreements it has already signed."[504]
228. Russia is entering an election season that is
scheduled to last until March 2008. There is uncertainty about
the degree to which the elections will meet international democratic
standards, about the identity of President Putin's successor,
and about Russia's post-election political constellation. Caution
seems legitimate under these circumstances. Moreover, Ms Gower
suggested that Russia was likely to be particularly uncompromising
with the West during its election season. Under these circumstances,
Ms Gower felt it was "difficult to envisage any real progress
in the negotiations on a new treaty, even if they are formally
opened" until after the presidential election.[505]
229. Ms Barysch pointed out that any attempt to negotiate
a new agreement would pitch the EU and Russia back into "not
very helpful debatesabstract and angry debatesabout
common values, which we would inevitably have about writing just
the preamble."[506]
However, Ms Barysch and Ms Gower both told us that any EU-Russia
agreement which lacked firm language on shared values would not
win the required assent of the European Parliament.[507]
Indeed, given the sensitivity of relations with Russia for a number
of Member States, Ms Barysch highlighted the risk that any one
of them might veto any new EU-Russia agreement.[508]
According to Ms Gower, "The nightmare scenario is that we
negotiate it for the next 10 years and then one state says no."[509]
230. Our witnesses suggested that the existing framework
for EU-Russia relations already provides mechanisms for engagement
with Russia such as those sought by the UK. Ms Gower told us that
"The concept of the four spaces gives us a very broad and
comprehensive agenda for the potential development of relations
and for constructive co-operation between the EU and Russia on
pretty much all of the key issues that you can imagine."[510]
For example, the UK might seek to raise the extradition issue
in the context of the common space on freedom, security and justice.
Alongside the 'four spaces' agenda, there are in addition the
EU-Russia Energy Dialogue and the regular EU-Russia human rights
consultations.
231. Ms Barysch argued that there were potential
benefits to a focus on practical cooperation, namely that such
work would be less politically controversial than an attempt to
draft a new agreement, and might encourage the spread of shared
practices and understandings.[511]
Ms Gower told us that the current framework between the EU and
Russia has "the potential to lead to a very substantial change
in the nature of the relationship [
] In the short and medium
term, it presents the opportunities for the kind of pragmatic
steps forward that [
] could aid the situation and take things
forward."[512]
According to Ms Barysch, this kind of cooperation "might
lack vision, but since neither the EU's foreign policy nor Russia
internally knows where it is going at the moment, lack of vision
is excusable."[513]
232. Ms Barysch further suggested that the effort
to negotiate a PCA successor agreement might strain Russia's capacities
in personnel terms. According to Ms Barysch, "on the Russian
side [
] the people who know enough and engage enough with
the European Union are extremely limited. We want those people
to work on trade, energy, human rights and security dialogue and
not on an abstract debate about values."[514]
233. There might be a risk, highlighted by Ms Gower,
that if no PCA successor negotiations were launched, "it
is very difficult [
] to envisage much progress being made
on the more pragmatic agenda."[515]
However, Ms Barysch disagreed, pointing to a number of working
groups which had only recently been established under the common
spaces agenda, despite the lack of post-PCA talks. Regarding practical
EU-Russia cooperation, Dr Averre was similarly of the view that
"although progress has been patchy, it has been more positive
than many people would think".[516]
234. It appears doubtful that by holding off on the
opening of PCA successor talks, the EU would jeopardise movement
that Russia might otherwise make on areas of substantive disagreement,
such as the Energy Charter Treaty. Ms Gower was of the view that,
given its failure to lift its Polish import ban, Russia could
not be "over concerned" about the opening of post-PCA
talks. Rather than jeopardising possible concessions that Russia
might otherwise make, the greater risk from mothballing PCA successor
talks would be of provoking a tougher line from Russia on issues
where it is at odds with the EU or individual Member States. In
this context, it would be important that any decision to hold
off on launching PCA successor talks were seen as a common EU
position.
235. In response to both the more fundamental problems
in the EU-Russia relationship and the PCA question, Dr Pravda
advocated
a two-track strategy. Brussels should persist
in trying to build stronger working relations with Moscow in areas
of potential practical cooperation [
] [but] Brussels would
do well to set this within the context of a wider vision of the
developing relationship. This does not have to take the form of
any grand treaty to replace the current agreement. But [
]
it would be helpful to pay more attention to the vexed questions
of where Brussels and Moscow envisage the relationship going.
If nothing else, a process of systematic consultation on aims
and perspectives could reduce nervousness in Brussels about Russia's
flexing of post-imperial muscles and anxiety in Moscow about EU
quasi-imperial expansion.[517]
236. Overall, Ms Barysch told us that "Under
present circumstances, trying to push forward the negotiations
on a post-PCA agreement is futile, and could even be counter-productive."[518]
The imposition for over a year of trade blockages on two EU
Member States by a third country is unacceptable. We recommend
that the Government impress on the European Commission and Moscow
the urgency of resolving Russia's trade disputes with Poland and
Lithuania. Even if Poland were to lift its veto on negotiations
with Russia on a new EU-Russia agreement, however, we conclude
that the launch of such negotiations in the near future would
be probably fruitless and possibly unhelpful. We recommend that
the Government revisit the question of the advisability of a new
EU-Russia agreement as part of its discussions with EU partners
on EU Russia policy, and that it report on initial discussions
in its response to this Report.
The EU and Russia in the former
Soviet space
237. The EU launched its European Neighbourhood Policy
(ENP) in 2004, as a mechanism to help address the consequences
for the EU of its enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe. According
to the EU, the ENP aims to encourage the development of a 'ring
of friends' around the EU's southern and new eastern borders,
by promoting security, stability and economic development in neighbouring
countries on the basis of common values. Specifically, the ENP
offers partner countries cooperation, participation in some EU
programmes and a degree of economic integration, in return for
progress on political and economic reform on the basis of EU standards
and practices. Action Plans agreed by both sides set out the steps
to be taken by ENP partner countries and by the EU. Under proposals
for a strengthened ENP endorsed by the European Council in June
2007, ENP partner countries are to be offered the possibility
of alignment with EU Common Foreign and Security Policy declarations,
like candidate states for EU membership.[519]
238. Among CIS countries, the ENP is in operation
with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. As well
as the ENP, the EU has recently launched a strategy for Central
Asia, and a 'Black Sea Synergy' regional cooperation initiative
which involves CIS countries, although neither of these initiatives
is as yet as substantive as the ENP.[520]
239. In the context of the relationship with Russia,
Dr Allison commended the ENP Action Plans as "not the kind
of engagement that has the higher profile that would tend to attract
the critical commentary from Russia such as politicians making
speeches in capitals urging certain kinds of conduct and giving
direct support to particular political groups." According
to Dr Allison, the "technocratic and programmatic" approach
of the ENP Action Plans, involving a lot of "low politics",
"is more likely to be effective and less likely to attract
direct Russian criticism."[521]
240. Our witnesses agreed that the EU's increasing
involvement in the post-Soviet space nevertheless had a strategic
aspect which threatened to aggravate relations with Russia. According
to Dr Allison, "The EU, in seeking to define its new security
neighbourhood, is viewed by Russia as a revisionist power in the
area of the South Caucasus, Ukraine and Moldova, so there is likely
to be an increase in geopolitical tension on those grounds."[522]
Similarly, Mr Clark told us that:
To the extent that the EU provides a pole of
attraction for states that were part of the Soviet bloc, there
is the basis for considerable geopolitical tension whether the
EU invites it or not. As long as countries within Russia's 'near
abroad' aspire to follow a European path, the current Russian
leadership will tend to see the EU as a normative threat simply
by virtue of its existence.[523]
Dr Allison informed us that Russia and the EU found
it difficult to agree even on terminology with respect to Ukraine,
with Russia rejecting the language of "shared neighbourhood"
and the EU-Russia Common Spaces documents referring as a result
to "regions adjacent".[524]
241. Given Russia's attitude to the EU and the former
Soviet space, it is perhaps not surprising that the FCO reported
Russia to have been "an uncommitted and unsupportive partner
in the European Union's efforts to build success and promote modernisation
and reform in the region, notably through the European Neighbourhood
Policy."[525]
Yet, at least in its public language, the Union appears largely
to fail to consider Russia's relationship with the former Soviet
space in regard to the successful implementation of the EU's goals
in that region. For example, the EU strategy for Central Asia
does not mention Russia. The latest ENP strategy document includes
just three mentions of the country.[526]
This omission may be due to the EU's tendency to compartmentalise
policies; and to its espousal of the 'post-modern' notions of
security outlined above, and squeamishness about traditional strategic
politics. However, the ENP is unlikely to be as effective as it
could be in the former Soviet space unless the EU acknowledges
its strategic context and aspects. This would impact on the EU's
work with both Russia and the CIS ENP partner countries. In this
regard, Dr Averre suggested to us that there was scope for the
UK to push the EU to "try better to co-ordinate its Russian
policy with that towards the European Neighbourhood Policy countries."[527]
242. In its document on the UK's strategic international
priorities, the FCO says that the UK "will seek to develop
a shared understanding with Russia of how to promote security
and prosperity in the EU and Russia's common neighbourhood."[528]
When we questioned the then Foreign Secretary about the ENP, Mrs
Beckett said that the UK supported the policy, but, as regards
the EU in the region, did "not know whether [
] we play
a strategic role".[529]
We conclude that the Government is correct to support the EU's
European Neighbourhood Policy. We also strongly endorse the FCO's
identification of a need to develop a shared understanding with
Russia of the future of the common neighbourhood, involving the
countries concerned and on the basis of their sovereign choices.
However, the evidence is that this goal remains distant. We recommend
that the Government seek to inject greater strategic awareness
into the EU's policies for the former Soviet space and encourage
greater coordination between the EU's policies for Russia and
for other former Soviet states.
455 Ev 161 [EU-Russia Centre] Back
456
"Statement by the Austrian Presidency: 17th EU-Russia Summit
in Sochi", 26 May 2006, via www.delrus.ec.europa.eu/en/news_802.htm Back
457
"Lithuania threatens to block EU-Russia agreement",
Euractiv.com, 26 February 2007 Back
458
"EU-Russia talks on meat dispute end in deadlock", Financial
Times, 23 April 2007 Back
459
Ev 81 Back
460
"Russia extends ban on imports of Polish meat", European
Voice, 3 May 2007 Back
461
26 October 2007; available via www.eu2007.pt Back
462
"The EU and Russia: our joint political challenge",
text of speech given at Bologna, 20 April 2007, via www.ec.europa.eu/commission_barroso/mandelson Back
463
Oral evidence taken before the Foreign Affairs Committee on 19
June 2007, HC (2006-07) 166-ii, Q 191 Back
464
Post-summit press conference transcript, 18 May 2007, via www.delrus.ec.europa.eu Back
465
Q 86 Back
466
Ev 56 Back
467
Energy security issues were discussed in Chapter 5. Back
468
Chapter 3 raised the potential conflict between pursuing human
rights concerns and securing energy supplies in countries such
as Russia. Back
469
See Chapter 3. Back
470
"Europe-Russia summit: Putin riles west by barring opposition
protesters", The Guardian, 19 May 2007. The promotion
of democracy and human rights in Russia was discussed in Chapter
3. Back
471
"Web attackers used a million computers, says Estonia",
The Guardian, 18 May 2007 Back
472
"EU Presidency Statement on the situation in front of the
Estonian Embassy in Moscow", 2 May 2007, via www.eu2007.de;"NATO
statement on Estonia", NATO press release (2007)044, 3 May
2007, via www.nato.int Back
473
Post-summit press conference transcript, 18 May 2007, via www.delrus.ec.europa.eu Back
474
"Russia warns EU on new vetoes", Financial Times,
17 May 2007 Back
475
"EU Presidency statement on the Litvinenko case", 1
June 2006, via www.eu2007.de;"Declaration by the President
on behalf of the European Union on the Litvinenko case",
18 July 2007, via www.eu2007.pt. The Litvinenko case was discussed
in Chapter 4. Back
476
This was discussed in Chapter 2. Back
477
Q 29 Back
478
Q 29 [Ms Barysch] Back
479
Q 19 Back
480
Q 39 Back
481
Q 30 Back
482
"The EU and Russia: our joint political challenge",
text of speech given at Bologna, 20 April 2007, via www.ec.europa.eu/commission_barroso/mandelson Back
483
Ev 21 Back
484
For a recent survey of EU Member States' attitudes towards Russia,
see Mark Leonard and Nicu Popescu, "A Power Audit of EU-Russia
Relations", European Council on Foreign Relations Policy
Paper, November 2007. Back
485
Ev 21 Back
486
Ev 23 Back
487
Ev 59 Back
488
Ev 27; on this point see also Professor Light at Q 1 and the discussion
in Chapter 2. Back
489
Difficulties in the UK-Russia relationship were discussed in Chapter
4. Back
490
Q 75 Back
491
Ev 21 Back
492
Q 30; see also Ev 161 [EU-Russia Centre]. Back
493
Q 77 Back
494
Q 28 Back
495
Q 137 Back
496
Uncorrected transcript of oral evidence taken before the Foreign
Affairs Committee on 10 October 2007, HC (2006-07) 166-iv, Q 389 Back
497
Uncorrected transcript of oral evidence taken before the Foreign
Affairs Committee on 10 October 2007, HC (2006-07) 166-iv, Q 389 Back
498
Ev 82 Back
499
Q 135 Back
500
Ev 82 Back
501
Ev 82 Back
502
Uncorrected transcript of oral evidence taken before the Foreign
Affairs Committee on 10 October 2007, HC (2006-07) 166-iv, Q 390 Back
503
"Litvinenko case set to affect EU links with Russia",
Financial Times, 23 July 2007 Back
504
Ev 60 Back
505
Ev 23 Back
506
Q 27 Back
507
Q 27 [Ms Barysch], Ev 23 [Ms Gower] Back
508
Q 27 Back
509
Q 30 Back
510
Q 22. However, against this line of argument, see evidence from
the CBI at Ev 173. Back
511
Q 23. This argument parallels some of those outlined in Chapter
3 about the most effective means of promoting democracy and human
rights in Russia. Back
512
Q 23 Back
513
Q 23 Back
514
Q 27 Back
515
Q 23; see also Ev 22 [Ms Gower] Back
516
Q 23 Back
517
Ev 21 Back
518
Q 27 Back
519
"Communication from the Commission to the Council and the
European Parliament on Strengthening the European Neighbourhood
Policy", COM(2006)726 final, Brussels, 4 December 2006, p
10 Back
520
Council of the European Union, "The EU and Central Asia:
Strategy for a New Partnership", Brussels, 31 May 2007, via
http://register.consilium.europa.eu; "Communication from
the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament: Black
Sea Synergy-A new regional cooperation initiative", COM(2007)160
final, Brussels, 11 April 2007 Back
521
Q 21 Back
522
Q 15; see also Ev 18 [Dr Allison]. Back
523
Ev 59 Back
524
Ev 18 Back
525
Ev 78 Back
526
Council of the European Union, "The EU and Central Asia:
Strategy for a New Partnership", Brussels, 31 May 2007, via
http://register.consilium.europa.eu; "Communication from
the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament on Strengthening
the European Neighbourhood Policy", COM(2006)726 final, Brussels,
4 December 2006, p 10 Back
527
Q 40 Back
528
FCO, Active Diplomacy for a Changing World: The UK's International
Priorities, Cm 6762, March 2006, p 25 Back
529
Oral evidence taken before the Foreign Affairs Committee on 19
June 2007, HC (2006-07) 166-ii, Qq 198, 200 Back