Memorandum submitted by Sir Adrian Webb (GLOB 37)

 

Sir Adrian Webb has had a long and successful experience of leading at executive management level in public, not for profit and education sectors. Currently he is a Non-Executive Director on the National Assembly for Wales Executive Board. Most recently he has been a Council Member of the National Council for Education and Learning Wales (ELWA), a Member of HM Treasury Public Service Productivity Panel, and an Associate of the Prime Minister's Delivery Unit.

 

He has recently retired as Vice-Chancellor of the University of Glamorgan.

 

Academically, he specialised in social and public policy, government, and public sector management and has authored or joint authored nine books, seventeen monographs and occasional papers and in excess of 70 chapters, journal articles, conference papers and reports.

 

He was also a member of the Beecham Review of Public Services in Wales and contributed to the final report of that Review: "Beyond Boundaries".

 

Sir Adrian is now leading the Welsh Assembly Government's review of further education in Wales: The Independent Review of the Mission and Purpose of Further Education in Wales in the context of The Learning Country: Vision into Action (The Webb Review). The Review is due to report to the Education and Lifelong Learning Minister of the Welsh Assembly Government in autumn of 2007.

 

 

Background

 

Much of the skills agenda is a devolved matter, but it is intimately related to non-devolved issues which influence the performance of Wales as an economic entity and to areas of social policy and service delivery (eg the role of Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) in Wales). Moreover, the Leitch report on skills has created a UK agenda to which Wales must respond and a set of structural proposals - a Skills Commission and the changed role of SSCs - which impact on Wales.

 

 

Skills, Economic Growth and International Competitiveness

It may seem obvious that, to compete in a globalised economy, we need to invest heavily in our skills base. Leitch asserted this relationship but added the warning that, despite increased public investment, the UK lags behind its competitors on skills. In relation to the 30 OECD countries the UK is:

 

· 17th on low skills;

· 20th on intermediate skills; and

· 11th in high level skills.

He therefore argued for new and demanding education and training targets.

 

Leitch's view is supported by research (Coulombe, S., Tremblay J-F. and Marchand S. 2004 p9) that suggests investment in human capital is three times as important to economic growth over the long run as investment in physical capital. This is true, but the relationship between skills and economic performance is far from straight-forward. There is a powerful contrary argument which has been developed over a number of studies: cause and effect work the other way - individuals, and nations, invest in education because they are prosperous and can afford to do so (Wolf A 2004 ). Wolf goes on to criticise government for "...its infatuation with education for growth" Wolf, A 2007). She claims that the policy of "...ratcheting up the numbers of highly educated workers..." to deliver economic growth is ineffective: "The Kremlin under Leonid Brezhnev ordered and got plenty of tractors. They just didn't work". (Wolf,A. 2007).

 

What may seem to be an arcane academic debate highlights fundamental policy issues:

 

· should government invest more heavily in education and training;

· in what circumstances;

· and can devolved and non-devolved policies and processes mesh effectively to enable Wales to proper in a sharply competitive global economy?

 

 

Should Wales invest more heavily in skills?

 

In light of the academic work on the determinants of economic growth, perhaps it is best to base policy on an insurance principle: it cannot be wrong to back investment which may yield good results if to fail to do so could lead to major lost opportunities. For Wales, investment in education and skills may prove to be absolutely essential in the face of rapid global economic change, and it may be the key to making us attractive to inward and home grown enterprise investment.

 

 

More specifically, it is manifestly right to invest where employers face skills shortages that will not be resolved without government intervention - whether these are generic and long-standing or they arise from specific investment and growth opportunities.

 

 
The most fundamental issue raised by employers related to basic skills. Their concern is backed up by research  evidence that demonstrate a correlation between the improvement in basic skills - literacy and numeracy - and increasing GDP (Columbe et al 2004 p41). Certainly, in a rapidly changing economic climate inculcating relevant generic skills such as adaptability for independent and self motivated learning will prepare learners for economically valuable futures. In this context the Opening Minds projects of the RSA are important.
 
More advanced numeric skills are another case in point. What many employers seem to want is quantitative analytical skills which are now, and will increasingly be, the bedrock of high value added economic growth - in the service sector as much as in manufacturing and science. These skills have been dubbed "Techno-mathematical Literacies (TmL)": "we are using the term as a way of characterising mathematics as it exists in modern, increasingly IT-based workplaces ... the mathematics involved is much more than basic arithmetic ... we are convinced that the idea of literacy is really helpful. Individuals need to be able to understand and use mathematics as a language which will increasingly pervade the workplace through IT-based systems as much as conventional literacy pervaded working life in the last century. This language exists in the form of computer inputs and outputs that have to be composed and interpreted." (Hoyles,et al,2002). The importance of such skills may not mean, however, that we should simply push Maths harder at GCSE - that may be counter-productive. The authors conclude in respect of 14-19 education that it is vital for these skills to be inculcated in learners through other parts of the curriculum - and for the existing in-work population. 

 

There are also profound social reasons for increased investment. One concerns social justice and the need to counteract "market failure" as it affects the least powerful people in society. Government investment should be used to even out inequalities in opportunity - and plenty of those remain to be addressed. Another arises from the more intangible outcomes of education and training. Additional years of education and training are positively related to healthier life styles, lower levels of criminal behaviour and greater social cohesion. Importantly, this is especially true of "leisure learning" in the case of the least well educated adults - adult and community learning is not a luxury, especially if it is well targeted. A third, which is easily overlooked, is that social skills are a key element in employability, social adaptability and stabilty in their own right - witness the argument that skills for multi-cultural living are becoming increasingly important to personal and national success in a country such as ours.( Feinstein, L , Hammond C, Woods, L , Preston, J and Bynner J 2003)

 

 

 

 

 

The Context for Successful Investment

 

Unfocussed investment is inappropriate. Leitch argues that the essential means of providing focus is greatly to strengthen the employer voice. That must be right in terms of present and medium term skills needs and given the present nature of the economy. The caveats are that there must be mechanisms for anticipating, in so far as this is possible, the future skills needs of the economy as it changes - and if it is to become more competitive. The second arises from this: skills are not a free floating, autonomous, feature of an economy; they only come into play in so far as employers and the economy are geared to use them. The demand for skills is 'derived': it cannot be considered separately from other aspects of employers' strategies, with respect to product markets, work organisation and job design. This is why investment in skills is not necessarily a route to growth in and of itself. To increase the supply of skills will not necessarily bring about increases in productivity and economic growth, unless we also ensure that employers are able actually to utilise the skills available.  Moreover, some attention needs to be paid to ensuring that there is a reasonable 'fit' between the levels and types of skills supplied and those utilised.  These arguments are especially important in an economy such as that of Wales, where activity is substantially below even the UK average. But the Welsh economy shows signs of "low skill equilibrium". It will only need and be driven forward by better intermediate and high level skills in so far as it moves decisively beyond this plateau.

 

 

Wales needs a successful coming together of different areas of policy and of delivery. The distinctive Welsh vision outlined in Making the Connections (Welsh Assembly Government, 2004) and endorsed in the Beecham Report, Beyond Boundaries (Beecham, 2006) emphasises collaborative approaches ands "managed networks" of providers. Not all of this agenda can be achieved through better collaboration across devolved activities-non devolved agencies are also key (see below).

 

 

Skills Needs and Vocational Programmes

 

 

 

Vocational routes are often still seen as more appropriate for the less academically able. While the piloting of the Special Diplomas within the Welsh Baccalaureate may go some way to rectifying this, consideration also need to be given to the possible need for redefining, re-branding and restructuring the vocational routes available in Wales for learners from 14 onwards to provide high quality, robust and prestigious vocational programmes offering seamless progression with relevant and appropriate exit points at Level 3, Level 4/sub-degree, and degree level.

 

Giving a vocational route a high value "brand image" also demands close planning and joint provision between schools, colleges and universities and close engagement of employers and employer groups. Successful vocational programmes inculcate a sense of worth, purpose and status for young people.

 

Effective delivery of such a vocational route would be dependent upon the managed network within which it operates. Key interrelated components within that system could be:

 

· genuine cross-institutional delivery through collaboration between post 14 providers;

 

· effective partnerships between providers and employers and employer bodies;

 

· funding mechanisms that facilitated cross-provider, collaborative learning delivery; and

 

· impartial, learner focused, non-institutionally biased careers and progression advice and support for learners.

 

 

Managed Networks would also support the concept of economic clusters: linked industries, providers and government agencies achieving critical mass, cost efficiency and "competitive success". ("Clusters and the New Economics of Competition" Porter, Harvard Business Review Dec 1998). More recently, this concept has been cited as one of the factors for the success of Israel's high-tech sector. ("Business as Usual" Devi, Financial Times Magazine, April 2007.)

 

 

Policies and processes: Devolved and Non-devolved

 

Much, but not all, of this terrain is under the direction of the Welsh Assembly Government. Higher Education policy is one example of how, in practice, apparently independent powers can be shaped from without. The vocational education agenda might seem to argue for an HE system that is heavily committed to higher level skills, often delivered through collaborative effort. But the competitive nature of HE, and the power of the research agenda in defining prestige, complicates matters. By extension, the very notion of a Citizen/Collaborative approach to policy-making and delivery is directly challenged by the emphasis on competition driven by consumer choice that prevails in England.

 

More immediately and directly, the Welsh approach to skills and the engagement of employers must operate within the machinery commended by Leitch. The ability of Sector Skills Councils to articulate and champion the particular needs of the Welsh economy - nationally and by region - will rest in substantial measure on the resources they are given. Consideration needs to be given to how adequate these resources are.

 

To take a different example, one possible alternative to the English emphasis on "raising the school age", might be to offer a clear entitlement, rather than to think in terms of a compulsory minimum age. An entitlement could theoretically take the form of a guarantee of education/training or work-based training - to a defined minimum age. This would make most sense if there were to be close interaction between such policies and those of the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). Such areas of interaction between devolved and non-devolved systems will continue to pose challenges - possibly limitations - to how Wales seeks to position itself in a globalised economy.

 

10 May 2007

 

 

References

Coulombe, S., Tremblay J-F. and Marchand S. (2004), Coulombe, Tremblay, and Marchand - 2004. "Literacy Scores, Human Capital and Growth across 14 OECD countries"- Statistics Canada and Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, Ottawa

Hoyles, C., Wolf, A., Molyneux-Hodgson, S. and Kent, P. (2002), Mathematical Skills in

the Workplace. London: The Science, Technology and Mathematics Council.

 

Leon Feinstein, Cathie Hammond, Laura Woods, John Preston and John Bynner 2003'The contribution of adult learning to health and social capital', Wider Benefits of. Learning Research Report No.8, London: Centre for Research on the Wider Benefits of Learning

 

Wolf A 2003 "Education and Economic Performance: Simplistic

Theories and their Policy Consequence", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 20, no2,

 

Wolf A 2007 "A Matter of Degree" , World Business -INSEAD)

 

Welsh Assembly Government, 2004 Making the Connections

 

Beecham J, Webb A, Morgan G, 2006 Beyond Boundaries