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Select Committee on Trade and Industry Fifth Report


2  What is driving the demand for skills?

10. Employment in manufacturing has contracted dramatically since the 1980s. In 1980 there were 6.8 million people employed in the sector; by March 2006 this figure had fallen to 3.3 million.[8] Conversely the sector is experiencing increasing demands for skills and some employers are having difficulties meeting those demands. Our witnesses identified two key factors driving demand for skills in manufacturing: replacement demand and structural change driven by international competition.

Replacement demand

11. According to the Skills for Business Network: "there will be an ongoing demand to fill job openings created by retirements, occupational mobility and related reasons. This so-called 'replacement demand' may be more significant than any changes to employment levels and outweigh any projected demands."[9] For example, total employment in the metals industry is predicted to fall by 52,000 in the period 2004-2014, but replacement demand is likely to result in 154,000 vacant posts over the same period.[10] The importance of replacement demand was also underlined by the Learning and Skills Council. Discussing the West Midlands, they told us that 140,000 people would be leaving the manufacturing workforce in the next ten years. Between 60,000 to 80,000 of these jobs would be lost. This would mean 60,000 vacancies would still be created to replace those leaving.[11]

12. Locating sufficient numbers of skilled people to meet replacement demand can be a particular challenge for traditional industries that have suffered substantial job loss over the last two decades. Indeed, the Learning and Skills Council's analysis of the National Employer Skills Survey found that: "Generally the [skill] problems are most severe where employment levels are declining".[12] The EEF acknowledged this problem, attributing it in part to a redirection of resources away from such industries during periods of declining employment.[13] It should be borne in mind that 70% of the 2020 workforce are already in the workforce of today (see below paragraphs 57 and ff).

13. The need to replace people leaving the industry means that demand for skilled people can be significant even where employment overall is in substantial decline. This 'replacement demand' is forecast to be the major driver for employment in the sector over the next seven years. Skills policy should not, therefore, assume that skill shortages are only concentrated in 'new' manufacturing industries. This has important implications for careers advice, the education system and shaping public attitudes to manufacturing, issues we explore later in this Report.

Structural change

14. Lord Leitch's report on skills in the UK stressed the important role of skills in improving productivity relative to international competitors.[14] These concerns are particularly pertinent for manufacturing industry. Although in 2005, manufacturing accounted for only 13.6% of national GDP, the sector was responsible for 54% of UK exports and 60% of imports.[15] This high level of exposure to international competition makes concerns about productivity especially important to manufacturers; several of our witnesses stressed the importance of export activity to the sector and the link between a competitive level of productivity and export activity.[16]

15. The Trades Union Congress told us that manufacturing in the UK "is increasingly a sophisticated industry and its future depends on moving up the value chain, involving as it does much more complex functions including greater emphasis on design, technology and service and providing more niche markets."[17] In many respects the process of structural change experienced in manufacturing broadly accords to that outlined in the Leitch report for the economy as a whole and is resulting, inevitably, in higher demands on skills.[18] The EEF told us: "Within the manufacturing scenario we used to use quite a lot of unskilled labour. Today, we need more and more skilled labour at various levels. That trend will continue right the way through the next decade or so."[19]

16. Manufacturing is undergoing a period of significant structural change, moving the sector towards higher-value production based around niche markets. This is leading to a demand for higher-level skills across many industries. Skills policy must therefore aim to increase demand among employers and employees for training and skills, as well as responding to the current demands of employers.

17. Semta, Amicus and KPMG all told us that a level 3 qualification—the equivalent of two A-levels—is increasingly becoming the minimum requirement for entry into science and engineering firms and manufacturing more widely.[20] Improve said that food and drink manufacturers will be demanding mostly level 3 skills by 2014 and an "absolute minimum of level 2 qualifications across the sector".[21] The trend towards fewer jobs at a higher skill base represents a significant challenge for the sector. As Diagram 1 shows, the manufacturing workforce is substantially less qualified, on average, than the UK workforce as a whole. At present, 51% of the manufacturing workforce is not qualified to level 3 and 12% have no qualifications at all.[22] The situation is especially pressing for food and drink manufacturers, where 52% of employees are not even qualified to level 2 and 28% have no qualifications.[23]

Labour Force Survey 2006; Leitch, para 3.46

18. Our witnesses have suggested that the possession of a level 3 qualification—the equivalent of two A-levels—is increasingly becoming the base-line for employability in manufacturing. With over half of the present manufacturing workforce not qualified to this level, increasing the qualifications base of the sector should be a major priority if UK competitiveness, jobs and exports are to be maintained in the face of growing international competition from established and emerging markets.

19. Structural change in manufacturing is also broadening the types of skills required by employers. Both the EEF and CBI have stressed to us how "whilst a manufactured product may well be at the heart of a manufacturing business very often it is earning a lot more profitability from things around that product, particularly the service side of the business."[24] This underlines the trends towards requiring more personal, management and service-type skills among manufacturing employees.[25]


8   Appendix 10 (CBI) Back

9   Appendix 42 (Skills for Business Network) Back

10   Skills for Business Network, Working Futures: National Report 2004-2014, (2006) Table 6.7.3 Back

11   Q 325 Back

12   Learning and Skills Council, Skills in England 2005: Volume 1 - Key messages, (2006) para. 1.57 Back

13   Q 9 Back

14   Lord Leitch, Prosperity for all in the global economy - world class skills (2006), para 1.5-1.7 Back

15   National Statistics Database (Series IKBH, IKBI, LQAD, LQBL, KTMQ, KTMR, BPAN, BQBD) Back

16   Appendix 10 (CBI); The importance of export markets to manufacturing was also shown in Appendix 21 (EEF) and Appendix 12 (Deloitte & Touche) Back

17   Q 69; similar views were expressed by the EEF (Qq 2-3), and CBI (Q 133 and Appendix 11) Back

18   Leitch, para 1.9-1.23 Back

19   Q 5 Back

20   Qq 188 and 244; Appendix 28 (KPMG) Back

21   Q 232 Back

22   Appendix 42 (Skills for Business Network) Back

23   Q 233 Back

24   Q 2; Appendix 11 (CBI) Back

25   See paragraphs 29 and 30 below. Back


 
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