APPENDIX 25
Further supplementary memorandum submitted
by UKTI
DEFINING EMERGING
MARKETS
Methodology
— Starts with Seven Strategic
Criteria—aim to set analytical framework.
— Aim to identify indicators
which have global coverage and are produced by internationally
respected bodies (eg UNCTAD, World Bank).
— Aim broad base indicators
covering economic and social fundamentals, governance, crime and
corruption, scientific and technical strengths.
— Framework draws on work on
economic fundamentals undertaken by LSE for UKTI and the training
provided to market desk staff.
Seven Strategic Criteria
— Size of Market, Potential Economic
Growth (historical growth rate, investment, demographics, natural
resources).
— Strategic Political & Economic
Importance (energy exporter, openness to trade, political importance
internationally).
— Science and Technology Base
(strength R&D and innovation base, complementarity with UK
strengths).
— UK Market Share (existing trade
and investment links).
— Match of Market with UK Export
Sectors (profile imports match profile UK exports).
— Presence Active Partners/Potential
Partners (government and business support for closer economic
links).
— UKTI Impact (political uncertainty,
weak rule of law, barriers to trade—assumes UKTI role more
important to firms where these exist).
Strategic Emerging Markets
|
| Key Indicator | Markets Matching
| Markets not Matching
|
|
| Economic | |
|
| GDP Growth >5% pa (four year average) |
China, India, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Turkey.
| Brazil, Mexico (just under). |
| Per capita GDP >US$10,000 | China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico.
| UAE, South Korea. |
| Annual Industrial Production Growth >5% pa
| China, India, Turkey, UAE, Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand.
| Mexico, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Malaysia.
|
| Inward Stock of FDI Increase >40% 2000-04
| China, India, South Korea, Vietnam, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Thailand, Turkey, Mexico.
| China, Brazil, Indonesia (net negative flow), Malaysia (net negative flow).
|
| Increase Merchandise exports >200% 1993-2003
| China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, South Korea.
| Brazil. |
| Demographic | |
|
| Popn increase 1990-2003 >20% | India, Vietnam, Malaysia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico.
| China, Brazil, Russia, Thailand. |
| Popn increase 2003-15 >10% | China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico.
| Thailand, UAE, Russia. |
| Annual Growth Rate >1% | China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico.
| Russia, Thailand. |
| % 2003 Popn aged 0-14 >20% | China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico.
| Russia, Hong Kong (not China). |
| Health & Welfare |
| |
| Life Expectancy | China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, Thailand.
| Hong Kong (not China), UAE. |
| Annual health expenditure >7% GDP | China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, UAE, Thailand.
| Brazil. |
| Education | |
|
| Investment in education >20% Govt revenues
| UAE, Hong Kong (not China), Mexico, Malaysia, Thailand.
| Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, India, Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia (lowest of all).
|
| Corruption and Transparency |
| |
| Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index ranking
| Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, India, Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, Thailand, UAE, South Korea.
| Hong Kong, Malaysia. |
| Index of Economic Freedom Ranking >50 |
Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, India, Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, UAE.
| Hong Kong, South Korea. |
| Index of Economic Freedom Property Rights Ranking >2
| Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, India, Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, UAE.
| Hong Kong, South Korea. |
| High World Bank Investment Climate Survey Scores
| Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, India, Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, Thailand, UAE, South Korea.
| Hong Kong, Malaysia. |
| Regulation | |
|
| Average weighted external tariff >3% |
Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, UAE, South Korea, Malaysia.
| Hong Kong, Turkey. |
|
|
