Q4  (Chairman): Progress on Individual Learning Account prosecutions and recoveries

  The position on the ILA investigations and recoveries at the end of June 2004 is as follows:

Investigations

  All serious complaints concerning ILAs have been followed up with 698 providers being subject to review by the Department.

  The Department is continuing investigation of 266 learning providers. Of these 63 are with the police. We anticipate clearing most of the remaining cases by the end of August.

  159 of the 698 providers were accepted for review by the Department's Special Investigation Unit. Of the 159, 108 providers were accepted by the police for investigation, which has, to the end of June, resulted in 93 arrests and charges being brought against 35 individuals. Six people have been convicted with a variety of prison, suspended sentences, community service and fines. 22 individuals are awaiting court appearances, and seven of them have submitted guilty pleas.

  In one case a trial date has been fixed for October 2004, dates for six have been provisionally set for January 2005. A further two cases are expected to commence in spring 2005.

Recovery of public funds

  The Department has recovered some £2.2 million of irregular payments. Additionally, irregular payments of £4.7 million have been stopped as a result of the investigation work. We are withholding a further £12.1 million from the remaining 266 cases and we do not expect to pay much of this amount, although this is dependent upon the outcome of investigations.

Q54  (Jeff Ennis): Information on the distribution of new teaching posts

  The Department does not collect data specifically about the distribution of new teaching posts across the country. The ability of schools to create posts depends on local circumstances and decisions taken at local government level. In general terms, experience shows that large increases in school funding will lead to large increases in the number of teaching posts on offer.

  The Statistics of Education: School Workforce in England—2003 Edition published on 20 January 2004 and available on the Department's website at: http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/VOL/v000443/WorkforceinEngland.pdf does provide some information on the distribution of new teaching posts.

  This book brings together all the statistics published by the Department in 2003 concerning the teaching workforce, including teacher recruitment, turnover, numbers in service, vacancies, pay, promotions, retirements, sickness and ethnicity. It also includes data relating to the number of support staff in schools and Further Education lecturers.

  I attach two tables which are particularly relevant.[4]

  Table 9 which shows the regions where newly qualified teachers were teaching in March 2002 and the comparable region where they completed their initial teacher training in 2001; and

  Annex A2 which shows the number of full-time equivalent regular teachers in the maintained schools sector by local education authority and Region for January 1997 to January 2003.

Q64  (Chairman): Possible reduction in the number of primary teachers

  Pupil demographics is an important factor in teacher demand trends. Falling primary pupil numbers have produced declining primary teacher numbers and teacher vacancy numbers in some areas over the past couple of years. Stephen Kershaw confirmed that projected pupil numbers are taken into account in the Department's teacher supply modelling work, but we cannot conclude that falling rolls will mean that we will need as many as 20,000 fewer primary teachers by 2010.

  The figure of 20,000 appears to be based on the assumption that teacher and pupil numbers will both fall at the same rate between 2000 and 2010. Primary teacher numbers continued rising up to 2002 reflecting increased spending and the existence of growth policy areas such as Early Years and Special Educational Needs which offset some of the effects of falling primary rolls.

  These growth areas might well continue to act against the falling school roll but it is difficult to forecast actual numbers. Local circumstances will also have an effect.

Q77-78  (Jonathan Shaw and Chairman): The underspend on the EMA pilots

  In 2001-02 and 2002-03 expenditure on the pilots was still within the Department's Expenditure Limit (DEL) and was £47 million and £72 million less than originally forecast. Like the rest of Government, when genuine underspends emerge they are redeployed to meet other departmental priorities, either in the same year or future years.

  There were particular difficulties in predicting EMA expenditure in the pilot schemes. The demand-led nature of the entitlement made expenditure volatile. In addition, it was particularly difficult to forecast spending in the pilots because national income figures needed to be mapped onto local areas.

  For the national scheme we have thoroughly revised our modelling of EMA expenditure. In addition, we have agreed with the Treasury that EMA expenditure should become part of Annual Managed Expenditure (AME) from 2003-04, so that the risks around forecasting expenditure are not carried within our DEL. Expenditure on EMA for 2003-04 was £142 million.

Q100  (Mr Chaytor): Changing the way that accounts are presented

  The Department will review the presentation of the information in Chapter Two of the Departmental Report to see if the Committee's concerns regarding openness and transparency can be addressed.

July 2004