RENEWALS
99. Such headline variations may arise because of
disputes between Network Rail and the Regulator over the levels
of activity. In this case, the Regulator considered that Network
Rail should do less renewals work than it had planned.
100. Consultants LEK Consulting, Halcrow Group, and
Transportation Technology Centre Inc., retained by the Rail Regulator
to study the current expenditure of maintenance and renewals as
set out in Network Rail's Business Plan, considered that of 798
track renewals reviewed only 57% of "plain line track"
renewals were "fully justified"; of the remainder, 16%
were "not justified". Renewals, and other work, were
sometimes not justified in the consultants' view because there
was insufficient information available in Network Rail to make
a judgement.[141]
101. In his Draft Conclusions published in
October, the Regulator concluded that Network Rail should spend
20% less on renewals in 2004/05 and 2005/06 -equivalent to savings
of £360 million- than budgeted for in the company's March
2003 Business Plan.[142]
He noted there that Network Rail disputed the consultants' work,[143]
but that he was not persuaded by Network Rail.[144]
The view of the Regulator was shared by Roger Ford, the railway
journalist, in evidence to this Committee: "Network Rail's
projected maintenance costs are broadly in line with historic
figures. However renewals are so high as to be ludicrous."[145]
102. The Regulator paraphrased the company's argument
in his Final Conclusions document published in December:
"Network Rail asserted that the replacement of additional
track components in conjunction with a necessary renewal job is
often justified by reductions in overall costs."[146]
103. We asked Mr Armitt about this and he told us:
"We clearly had justification [for the renewals].
What they were looking for was detailed calculations which they
could find for the bulk of it. On some we had placed our assumptions
on fairly straightforward age of the infrastructure, renewal rates
on a broad scale and therefore we knew that we were going to have
to carry out those broad levels of renewal. I would still advocate
those broad parameters for carrying out renewals are a good guidance
for what needs to be done, when you are looking five years out
you have to rely on broad parameters, you do not rely on detailed
calculation for what you are going to do five years hence."[147]
104. Probed about whether Network Rail's figures
for overall budget requirements might not be more accurate than
his own, the Regulator said "It is conceptually possible
but let us remember they are the monopoly provider of an essential
service. They are hardly likely to ask for less."[148]
This seems to be something of a caricature of the Network Rail's
position, which was clearly based on professional estimation,
even if the company was culpable in not having provided supporting
documentation of sufficient and persuasive detail in the case
of some renewals.
105. Network Rail's approach to renewals appears
to be in line with Government policy, which is that one advantage
of the company's commercial structure over Railtrack's equity
basis was "decision-making based on long-term analysis of
whole-life asset costs- not deferring much-needed investment expenditure
for short-term economic gain."[149]
This has been Network Rail's position in the Interim Review process.
But it is evidently not the Regulator's, and the Government itself
may have underestimated the short term costs of such a policy
when applied to the run down UK infrastructure. We are concerned
that the drive to reduce costs appears in conflict with long term
investment in the infrastructure. Balancing costs and investment
needs to be undertaken on the basis of solid data and agreed targets,
both of which appear to be in short supply. The company needs
to get a better grip on the level of renewals required so that
there can be confidence that cost and investment are in reasonable
balance.
106. The Regulator was entitled to challenge Network
Rail's estimates of work required where these appeared to him
to be in excess of necessity. We are nevertheless astonished at
the spectacle of two bodies - Network Rail and the Rail Regulator
- in dispute in this manner. This is not an outside body (the
Regulator) undertaking a straightforward check of the operator's
documentation, but appearing to undertake a root and branch parallel
exercise by consultants of renewals' estimation. Either the renewals
documentation of Network Rail is grossly deficient - as the Rail
Regulator appears to believe - or the Regulator undertook too
detailed an examination, at a considerable consultancy cost.[150]
107. It was inefficient and highly expensive for
Network Rail and the Rail Regulator to undertake parallel exercises
assessing renewals' requirements of the rail infrastructure. It
should be a firm objective for the future economic regulatory
authority and the infrastructure provider to ensure that the quality
of the latter's estimation processes and records is sufficient
to provide a very high degree of confidence in what is being proposed,
allowing there to be much less parallel checking and micro-management
in future.
108. It is also unacceptable that Network Rail
did not have its estimates of overall funding requirements under
control. We accept that the original estimate in March 2003 may
have been inaccurate owing to the requirement to publish and the
relative shortness of preparation time. However, even after an
element of joint working with the Regulator and his consultants,
the company's final requirements estimates vary by an excess of
£2.5 billion from those of the Regulator.
109. In these circumstances it is difficult to
understand why the company has now agreed to a settlement which
its own estimated figure appears to suggest is too low for the
work it considers necessary without complaint. It had options
to ask the Regulator either to issue a new review notice, or refer
his determination to the Competition Commission, but chose not
to do so.[151]
This suggests that the company's estimates of funding requirements
cannot be relied upon. The company needs to take urgent steps
to demonstrate that it has adequate systems in place to ensure
future funding forecasting is accurate to establish credibility.
Conclusion
110. Taking the company into direct ownership
together with removing the Regulator's present role of determining
the level of the company's funding, as discussed in Chapter 2,
would enable the Government to ensure cheaper funding for, and
more effective overall control over, the railway infrastructure,
particularly maintenance, renewals and enhancements. It is likely
that there will continue to be a role for the private sector in
aspects of infrastructure provision. But the structure of Network
Rail needs to reflect the funding reality that the Government
guarantees the finances of the railway and will continue to do
so for the foreseeable future. Network Rail's present private
sector status and structure mask that reality and not only fails
to deliver benefits to the industry and the travelling public,
but actually produces the significant funding and governance flaws
we have discussed. The Government needs to move quickly to take
control of the infrastructure into the public sector.
111. However, in order to rationalise the railway
and provide a platform for significant future service improvements,
the Government must go further. It also needs to have a much tighter
grip of the outputs it requires from the rail industry. To achieve
that, the current artificial barriers between those specifying
the outputs and those operating the infrastructure (which largely
determine those outputs) must be removed. In the next Chapter
we examine the SRA's current role in specifying outputs, and the
way in which the present structure frustrates its ability to carry
out this key leadership function.
63 Policy and Procedure for the Selection and Appointment
of the members of Network Rail is available on the company's website. Back
64
Network Rail Annual Report and Accounts 2003, p 10 Back
65
Policy and Procedure for the selection and Appointment of the
Members of Network Rail, para 28 Back
66
Ibid, para 35 Back
67
Network Rail Annual Report and Accounts 2003, p 11 Back
68
Policy and Procedure for the Selection and Appointment of the
Members of Network Rail, para 13 Back
69
Q76 Back
70
Q78 Back
71
Q79. See also, Network Rail Business Plan Summary 2003, p 13 Back
72
Q75. A list of Network Rail members may be found on the company's
website Back
73
For example, BBC News Online, 3 June 2003; 'Network Rail
'out of control' ', The Guardian, 7 June 2003 Back
74
Q140 Back
75
Q140 Back
76
Network Rail Business Plan Summary 2003, p 10 Back
77
Ibid, pp 48-50 Back
78
Network Rail Business Plan Summary 2003, p 13 Back
79
Q56 Back
80
Q1269 Back
81
Q1269 Back
82
FOR 97B Back
83
FOR 57B Back
84
FOR 57B Back
85
FOR 57B Back
86
Network Rail Business Plan Summary 2003, p 46 Back
87
FOR 57B Back
88
ORR Interim Review of Track Access Charges: Draft Conclusions,
p 2 Back
89
ORR Access Charges Review 2003: Final Conclusions, p 6 Back
90
Q1329 Back
91
ORR Access Charges Review 2003: Final Conclusions, p 226 Back
92
Department for Transport, Delivering Better Transport: Progress
Report, para 3.13 Back
93
Q 1434 Back
94
QQ 1436, 1435 Back
95
Network Rail Press Release, 28 March 2003 Back
96
Network Rail Infrastructure Limited: interim financial statements
six months ended 30 September 2003, p 8 Back
97
Q 33 Back
98
Q 98 Back
99
Q 99. The regulatory asset base, also called regulated
asset base (RAB), is the Rail Regulator's valuation of Network
Rail's physical assets, such as track, signalling equipment and
stations, FOR 99A Back
100
Q138 Back
101
Q137 Back
102
Network Rail Infrastructure Limited: Preliminary Results for the
Twelve Months ended 31 March 2003, p 7 and Network Rail Annual
Report and Accounts 2003, p 2 Back
103
Network Rail Infrastructure Limited: Interim Financial Statements
Six Months ended 30 September 2003, p 4 Back
104
FOR 57B Back
105
FOR 57B Back
106
FOR 57B Back
107
FOR 57B Back
108
FOR 57B Back
109
'Ministers wasted £80 million on Network Rail', The Times,
29 May 2003 Back
110
FOR 79 Back
111
Network Rail Business Plan Summary 2003, p 44 Back
112
FOR 77B Back
113
FOR 77B Back
114
FOR 77B Back
115
SRA Strategic Plan 2003, p 38. This strategic plan is
the last published by the SRA to date Back
116
QQ12, 9 Back
117
Q12 Back
118
Q21 Back
119
Q24 Back
120
Jarvis Press Release, 10 October 2003 Back
121
Network Rail Press Release, 24 October 2003 Back
122
Q1405 Back
123
Q1476 Back
124
QQ 721, 729. Mr Andrew Rose, Chief Operating Officer of Balfour
Beatty Rail thought profits on maintenance for the private sector
under Network Rail's 'new maintenance contract' ( since s et aside
when the company took direct control of maintenance) would be
'4.7% of sales value', Q798 Back
125
FOR 57B Back
126
Q1405; FOR 57B Back
127
Q24 Back
128
Q1471 Back
129
Q1424 Back
130
HC Deb 28 October 2003, col 162 Back
131
FOR 57; Q1431 Back
132
Q1414 Back
133
Q1445 Back
134
Q1200 Back
135
Press Release , 23 September 2003 Back
136
Q1721 Back
137
Q1390 Back
138
ORR Press Release, 17 October 2003 Back
139
ORR Press Release, 12 December 2003 Back
140
Network Rail Press Release, 5 February 2004 Back
141
Bottom-Up Review of Network Rail's Business Plan: 2003/04-2005/06,
8 August 2003, Report to ORR, paras 5.3.10, 1.4.2, Fig. 1.4, and
1.2.4, Fig 1.3 Back
142
ORR Interim Review of Track Access Charges, para 5.27 Back
143
Ibid, para 5.25 Back
144
ORR Interim Review of Track Access Charges, para 5.26 Back
145
For 88 Back
146
ORR Access Charges Review 2003: Final Conclusions, p 55 Back
147
Q1415 Back
148
Q1324 Back
149
Department for Transport, Delivering Better Transport: Progress
Report, December 2002, para 3.13 Back
150
Q1306 Back
151
On 7 January, Mr Armitt indicated his belief that the company
would accept the settlement, Q1720; which it duly did, Network
Rail Press Release, 5 February 2004. See, Q1257 and, ORR Access
Charges Review 2003: Final Conclusions, pp 17-18 for reference
to the Competition Commission. Back