1.0  BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

  1.01  The West Midlands Area Multi-Modal Study (WMAMMS) was commissioned by GO-WM in December 1999. The timescale of the Study was constrained by the requirement to provide inputs to the Regional Planning Conference in Summer 2001. Consequently outline study recommendations were published in June 2001 followed by the Final Report in October 2001.

  1.02  The Study covered the core conurbation area containing the six Metropolitan Districts of Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Solihull, Walsall, Sandwell, and Dudley. The Study Area also extended into the surrounding Shire Counties but only insofar as it was necessary to look at their relationship, in transport terms, to the conurbation. Approximately 2.3 million people reside in the core study area.

  1.03  The aim of the Study was to investigate and seek solutions to problems on or with all modes of surface transport over a 30 year time-scale. A large number of options comprising behavioural, economic and modal interventions were developed and appraised to determine the effectiveness of the various options against national, regional and local objectives. Apart from the national objectives of integration, economy, safety, accessibility and environment, the primary aim of the Study was derived from a vision suggested by the West Midlands Regional Forum of Local Authorities.

"to create a safe, modern, efficient and cohesive network of integrated transport facilities and services throughout the Study Area which serves the accessibility and mobility needs of both individuals and the business community in an environmentally friendly manner."

  1.04  The Study was undertaken by a consortium of consultants led by Aspen Burrow Crocker Ltd (now Waterman Burrow Crocker Ltd) and managed by a Steering Group chaired by the Government Office for the West Midlands.

  1.05  The Terms of Reference for the Study listed the following issues which needed to be specifically addressed and these hence these issues strongly influenced the outcome of the Study:

—  The opportunities for changing strategic travel behaviour through the implementation of a coherent and integrated series of strategic and/or local initiatives, including demand-management aimed at modal transfer and reducing traffic volumes;

—  The interaction between land use development options and the transport system;

—  The role of "hearts and minds" measures designed to promote sustainable travel behaviour;

—  Opportunities to reduce the environmental impacts associated with the strategic transport networks;

—  The potential role of public transport, including mass rapid transit systems in improving accessibility within the conurbation;

—  The potential role of rail service improvements in meeting regional transport objectives;

—  The need for strategic improvements to maintain network integrity and safety.

  1.06  In addition the Study was required to make recommendations on the following key locational issues:

—  the role of the M5/M6 through the conurbation;

—  congestion on the M42 between M40 and M6 (Roads Review remit);

—  accessibility to the west side of the conurbation;

—  congestion on the rail network between Coventry and Wolverhampton and around Birmingham New Street Station; and

—  transport network "stress points" across any mode which might affect economic vitality.

  1.07  Demand for travel in the WMAMMS Study Area, over the thirty-year strategy period, is forecast to increase from nearly 2.5 billion person trips per annum to over 3.1 billion, an increase of almost 27%. Regardless of how people choose to travel, this change presents a significant challenge.

2.0  A SUMMARY OF THE MAIN OPTIONS APPRAISED

Strategy Level Appraisal

  2.01  The Strategy and Plan Option Appraisal process was based on the Guidance on Methodology for Multi-Modal Studies (GOMMMS) issued by DETR in March 2000. The approach adopted worked within the appraisal framework provided by the five Government objectives for transport ie environment, safety, economy accessibility and integration. This approach is geared to three purposes:

—  choosing between different options for solving the problem;

—  prioritising between proposals; and

—  assessing value for money.

  2.02  The Study "Reference Case" was designed to indicate future conditions if levels of investment and changes in behaviour and economic trends are generally in line with current conditions and acts as the base against which strategy and plan options are assessed. The make-up of the Reference Case was based on the current West Midlands Local Transport Plan, the Centro/West Midlands Passenger Transport Executive 20 Year Plan, investment proposals by SRA/Railtrack, the Highways Agency (including the privately-funded M6 Toll motorway) and other known proposals.

  2.03  At the strategic level WMAMMS followed a process of testing various levels of intervention in four "drivers of change" against the Reference Case, to examine the effect on modal shares and to develop an optimum strategy that satisfied both national and local objectives. The decision to make a journey and the characteristics of that journey, such as destination, mode of travel and time of departure, can be influenced by intervention in one or more of the four main "drivers of change" listed below:

—  Behavioural Change—this intervention seeks to change attitudes and hence travel behaviour to encourage travel by more sustainable modes, shorter journeys, linked journeys for more than one purpose, etc.

—  Economic Measures—the cost of travel represents a strong influence on the choice of mode. By reducing the perceived differential between using a car and public transport, more people will choose to travel by the sustainable modes.

—  Modal Schemes—this intervention includes all the physical infrastructure changes to the transport system, roads and public transport, which require investment to effect an improvement.

—  Land Use Polices—the interventions under this driver aim to reduce the need for travel by changing the spatial location of transport generators such as housing, employment, shopping and other large developments.

  2.04  Initially these effects were assessed individually and collectively using "moderate" levels of intervention that, on the basis of best judgement, were thought to be achievable in the short to medium term. A more extreme level of intervention in each driver was then used as a sensitivity test and each combination assessed against the Study objectives. The assessment confirmed that a strategy focused on a single "driver of change" or, in the case of the modal driver, a single mode such as road or rail would not achieve the Study Objectives. The Study identified the combination of options which best met these objectives in the short and longer term and Table 1 indicates the anticipated levels of intervention required.

Appraisal of Plan Options

  2.05  Following on from identification of an outline strategy, the Study re-examined previously identified transport-related problems and their causes and developed possible solutions. The appraisal process initially covered possible multi-modal Plan Options for three geographical sub-areas:

—  The western conurbation including the Black Country;

—  The central conurbation around Birmingham; and

—  The eastern side of the Study Area including the M42 corridor.

  This was followed by the appraisal of area-wide schemes, measures and initiatives based on behavioural change and the use of economic instruments in addition to modal intervention measures across the transport spectrum.

  2.06  In each of the three areas of the conurbation alternative packages of multi-modal schemes were tested. Some of these packages were biased towards a major expansion of public transport, including Showcase Bus and Metro (light rail) schemes, and others contained less public transport measures with some highway capacity increases. The packages were assessed and a "blended" package identified for each area. Individual plan options which did not perform well, either operationally or environmentally, eg Metro lines with inadequate forecast patronage, were discounted. The three sub-area packages were then combined and a further layer of area-wide interventions appraised which included the following options:

—  Regional Express Rail network,

—  Capacity increases on the strategic highway network (including the Midlands "Motorway Box"),

—  Strategic Park and Ride,

—  Cordon charging and electronic road pricing,

—  Measures to encourage behavioural change.

  Plan Options which were shown to be economically, environmentally and operationally viable were then identified and taken forward to the recommended Plan.

3.0  DETAILS OF SCHEMES

  3.01  The development of the 2031 Plan from the identified outline Strategy involved the package testing of over 150 possible schemes or plan option suggestions some of which came from Local Authorities, special interest groups, Centro, and Government Agencies in addition to those initiated by the Study Team. The Plan incorporates modal investment, behavioural change targets and economic measures which the Study considered necessary to deliver the selected strategy. The Modal elements of the Plan are summarised below:

Bus Transport

  3.02  The Study considered that bus travel would remain the most important and dominant public transport mode in the Study Area. The proposed improvements were forecast to raise bus share of the peak travel usage from one-fifth in 1999 to nearly one-third by 2031. Improvements required will involve "Showcase" type improvements on all strategic routes with significant priority on routes with heavy passenger loading designed to achieve a journey time almost equivalent to car speeds at peak periods. Bus Priority will need to be virtually continuous through most important junctions and will need to be co-ordinated with "Red Route" type measures but some road widening will be required. These routes will be designated Super Showcase Routes.

Light Rail

  3.03  The recommended 2031 light rail (Metro) network consists of the 10 routes, mainly centred on Birmingham, Wolverhampton and Walsall (these are in addition to Midland Metro Line One and the currently planned extensions to Five Ways and Brierly Hill). The two routes in East Birmingham to Birmingham International Airport, via Chelmsley Wood and Sheldon, would be connected into a loop to form a continuous route.

Heavy Rail

  3.04  The major heavy rail innovation in the 2031 Plan is the introduction of a Regional Express Rail Network (RER). The RER concept, characterised by high performance, high quality vehicles and infrastructure, would provide an integrated modern rail system that would connect towns and cities within and around the edge of the conurbation with central Birmingham.

  3.05  The schematic heavy rail network has been discussed with all the major rail industry partners, including the SRA, Railtrack and Centro and the appraisal process has indicated that there would be economic and operational benefits delivered by developing such a network. The RER system would include services that continue through the centre providing cross-conurbation links operating on routes serving Coventry and Wolverhampton, Cannock, Walsall, Shirley, Stratford and Nuneaton, Lichfield and Redditch, Tamworth and Worcester, Leamington Spa/Warwick and Kidderminster. The Study also identifies the development of a series of major " strategic" Park and Ride sites, mainly on the edge of the conurbation, to operate in conjunction with the RER.

  3.06  A number of major heavy rail schemes were identified as part of the 2031 Plan. These schemes, though essential for the full implementation of the RER, would also have major benefits to longer distance, through rail services.

—  Birmingham New Street: new Underground Station and Tunnels.

—  Four-tracking West Coast Main Line (WCML), Coventry to Wolverhampton.

—  Four-tracking Birmingham to Water Orton.

  A further three schemes were included in the 2031 Plan which would enable freight diversion away from the central Birmingham rail network.

Highway Network

  3.07  As a result of the appraisal process, the following key highway components have been identified for the 2031 Plan:

—  The M5/M6 corridor should retain a role as the north-south strategic route for long distance through traffic;

—  A link should be provided between the M54 and the M6/Birmingham Northern Relief Road to improve access to and from the M54;

—  Western Bypasses of Wolverhampton and Stourbridge, coupled with strengthening of the road hierarchy in the Black Country, to improve access and assist regeneration.

—  Widening of the M42 between Junctions 3 and 7 together with junction improvements is necessary to accommodate the projected growth in this corridor. The widening should be designed to provide a continuous dual four-lane carriageway with an additional lane between junctions;

—  The introduction of Active Traffic Management (ATM) on the existing motorway "box" to make best use of existing routes; and

—  The introduction of "Red Route" and local highway capacity improvements mainly to facilitate public transport priorities both for Super Showcase bus and LRT.

Costs and Timings

  3.08  The broad investment costs of the 2031 Plan over the 30-year implementation period are shown in Table 2 and these total £7.67 billion at year 2000 prices. This is in addition to the investment required for the Reference Case, which is estimated to cost approximately £2 billion over the same period. The bulk of the Plan investment, (approximately 80 per cent), is in respect of public transport networks but it should be noted that this includes substantial expenditure, in the order of £2.6 billion for " national" heavy rail schemes at Birmingham New Street and the four-tracking of the Coventry—Birmingham—Wolverhampton main line.

  * includes investment in walking and cycling facilities

4.0  THE INTRODUCTION OF CHARGING MEASURES

  4.01  The cost of travel represents a strong influence on personal travel characteristics. The primary aim of this strand of the overall WMAMMS strategy was to redress the existing perceived marginal cost of the use of public transport over private transport. Whilst the true costs may not be so significantly unbalanced, a large proportion of the cost of car travel is fixed and paid in advance (depreciation, insurance and maintenance). The actual perceived cost of car journeys is often little more than the price of fuel, parking charges and travel time, whereas the real inconvenience of interchange and waiting for public transport is perceived as a very high cost.

  4.02  The Study examined a variety of possible ways of achieving this strategic aim, such as road user charging, increased parking charges for workplace and publicly available parking or by substantially reducing the cost of public transport fares. In terms of the overall objectives of the Study, road user charging in the form of cordon or area based congestion charging or full electronic road pricing was considered to offer greater flexibility and mode shift potential than other possible economic interventions.

  4.03  The WMAMMS Plan therefore recommended a phased implementation of road user charging with Cordon Charging being introduced in major centres within the conurbation in the shorter term, ie towards the end of the first 10-year period of the Plan. In the longer term, full Electronic Road Pricing throughout the conurbation was envisaged by the Study.

  4.04  The short-term plan would see peak period road user charges based on a cordon charge or an area licence charge for a number of centres in the conurbation including Birmingham City centre, Wolverhampton City centre, Solihull town centre, Walsall town centre and the Merry Hill shopping centre.

  4.05  The exact system for the collection of road user charges would need further examination but for the purposes of the Study the level of charge tested was £2.50 per day per trip applied to all trips arriving in the above centres in the am peak period (07.30 hrs to 09.30 hrs). The initial evaluation of such a system indicated that whilst traffic levels within the centres themselves would reduce by up to 5% in the peak periods, across the conurbation, the modal shift resulting from this level of intervention would be small.

  4.06  In the longer term WMAMMS concluded that, well within the 30-year strategy time-scale, full electronic road pricing (ERP) will be possible based on Global Positioning Systems communicating with in-vehicle electronic units to monitor the position of vehicles at any time across the region. Road user charges would vary by time of day, vehicle type and by location, and the amount of congestion on the network, reflecting the identified strategy of moving the perceived cost of travel by car closer to that of by public transport.

  4.07  The road user charges in the peak and off peak periods modelled in the Study were related to link congestion and varied between the peak and off-peak periods. For a typical car journey from the suburbs to the centre of Birmingham, the modelled ERP charges varied from £0.50 in the off-peak to £3.00 in peak periods with a zero charge between 1900hrs and 0700hrs. Across the conurbation this produced a further 2% shift away from car usage and, in more congested areas of the conurbation, up to a 10 per cent reduction in traffic.

  4.08  In summary, in the shorter term, it is expected that congestion charging schemes would be gradually introduced based on cordons around the major centres in the conurbation, possibly starting with Birmingham City centre. The responsibility for implementing such schemes would rest with the individual Metropolitan Councils but an integrated approach across the area would be necessary. In the medium to long term the introduction of full electronic road pricing was envisaged by WMAMMS, delivered at regional if not national level.

5.0  BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE—COSTS AND IMPACTS

  5.01  The 1998 Integrated Transport White Paper (ITWP) identified ways of delivering an integrated transport system and it placed great emphasis on the need for a change in travel behaviour and attitudes. The primary goal of this element of the WMAMMS strategy was to develop the role of "hearts and minds" measures to encourage sustainable travel behaviour. The challenge is to change travel habits in favour of alternative modes to the private car such that people use their cars less and travel in a more sustainable way.

  5.02  In the shorter term the aim would be to increase the effectiveness of existing travel awareness programmes such as TravelWise, Green Travel Plans and School Travel Plans. It was suggested that a further 5 per cent modal shift could be achieved through the commitment of additional effort and resources aimed at changing attitudes and travel behaviour. This would be part of a long-term strategy aimed at increasing the attractiveness of the alternatives to the car and offering incentives to use public transport. The evidence suggests that the strategy must incorporate an integrated package with greater emphasis on the following:

—  Standardised Approach to TravelWise;

—  Co-ordinated, multi-modal travel information;

—  Green Travel Plans across the region;

—  Better walk and cycle provision;

—  School Travel- Safer routes to school;

—  Staggered Working Hours;

—  Teleworking;

—  Home shopping;

—  Health and transport initiatives;

—  Car sharing/pooling schemes;

—  More comfortable public transport, better image and branding.

  5.03  In the longer term a further reduction in car usage, and transfer to walk, cycle and public transport should be targeted to achieve an additional 5% change in behaviour. Green Travel Plans currently established in the West Midlands have set targets of achieving 10% modal shift. Birmingham City Council and Centro aim to involve all companies with 500 or more staff, with the aim of reducing car commuting trips into the city centre by 10 per cent over a five-year period.

  5.04  To achieve a greater impact in terms of reducing car travel, the Study envisaged a state-of-the-art travel awareness programme incorporating measures which would have a sustained impact on individual action. This would require a co-ordinated, multi-disciplinary approach and commitment by Local Authorities and Centro within the West Midlands to promote both group and individual action. In conjunction with initiatives developed by Local Authorities, Centro and other transport operators, the education, business, social and health sectors could also play a key role as part of a collaborative effort and partnership to raise awareness of traffic-related pollution, health risks, energy and environment, road safety and other issues. It is estimated that current behavioural change initiatives cost in the order of £1m per annum over the whole conurbation. The Study considered that although the current programmes would achieve a modest change in travel behaviour, in view of the major economic and social benefits which would potentially accrue from such initiatives, resources for behavioural change should be substantially increased to at least £5 million per annum.

  5.05  As a complementary measure in encouraging behavioural change the Study also recommended that expenditure across the Study Area on improving walking and cycling facilities should be increased from the current level of £4 million to £10 million per annum.

6. SUMMARY OF KEY STUDY OUTCOMES

  6.01  As mentioned above, demand for person movement in the Study Area, over the 30-year period, is forecast to increase from nearly 2.5 billion trips per annum to over 3.1 billion, an increase of almost 27 per cent. The key transport effects of the recommended WMAMMS Strategy and Plan in addressing this increase in travel demand is summarised in the following paragraphs.

Mode Share and Congestion

  6.02  As indicated in Table 3 below the implementation of the 2031 WMAMMS strategy reduces the total number of person trips by road vehicles (excluding bus) in 2031 to close to 1999 base year levels both in the am peak hour and in terms of total annual trips.

  6.03  The effect of the recommended WMAMMS 2031 Plan is to increase public transport mode share from the forecast 2031 Reference Case level of 25.4% to 34.6% on the basis of total annual person trips by motorised modes. The peak hour effect is more pronounced with public transport share increasing from 28.5 per cent in the 2031 Reference Case to 39.8% ie a 16% reduction in car travel compared with the Reference Case. This forecast mode shift is achieved by the combination of transport infrastructure schemes, road user charging and behavioural change and varies significantly across the conurbation with the central urban areas, particularly Birmingham City centre, benefiting from a larger switch to public transport.

  6.04  Compared with the Reference Case, the 2031 WMAMMS Plan produces an overall decrease of 8.9% in total road vehicle kilometres. This is made up of a 15% reduction on the non-motorway network and a 2.1% decrease on motorways in the area. Table 4 indicates that in comparison with the 1999 total congestion delay of 79.9 million vehicle-hours, the WMAMMS Plan shows delays in 2031 reducing to 72.9 million vehicle-hours, almost 10% below 1999 levels. This represents a 45% reduction in the forecast 133.4 million vehicle-hours lost to congestion in the 2031 Reference Case.

Transport Economic Efficiency

  6.05  The transport economic efficiency of the Plan components are summarised below. The analyses are based on the use of the TUBA software over the period 2001 to 2051 using two modelled years, 2011 and 2031. The 2011 scenario includes all schemes likely to be in place by that date whilst the 2031 scenario includes all of the Plan elements. The benefits and costs indicated are at year 2000 prices discounted to 2000 at a discount rate of 6%.

Effect on the Environment

  6.06  It is likely that any new infrastructure will have an adverse effect on the environment. Four tracking of the heavy rail line between Coventry and Wolverhampton, widening of the M42 and the western bypasses of Stourbridge and Wolverhampton are examples. However, if the recommended Strategy and Plan is implemented, substantial environmental gains will be achieved over the conurbation as a whole. A summary of the principal quantitative changes, relative to the Reference Case, is shown below in Table 6.

7.0  KEY IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES AND RISKS

  7.01  The Final WMAMMS Report accepts that the complex matrix of delivery mechanisms, transport providers and funding sources seriously challenges the co-ordinated delivery of the WMAMMS Plan. The success of the recommended strategy depends on the balanced implementation of all component parts of the Plan. The Final Report identified key implementation issues and addressed the risks and problems that might arise with the implementation process. Some of the critical implementation issues are briefly discussed below:

Local Transport

  7.02  WMAMMS recognised that a wide range of authorities, agencies and operators would need to work together towards implementing the recommended strategy. Existing partnership arrangements would need to be reviewed to focus on delivery and monitoring of the impact of elements as they are delivered.

  7.03  Although many of the recommended measures will be delivered by other bodies, the local authorities within and around the conurbation and Centro/West Midlands Passenger Transport Authority (WMPTA) will be responsible for delivering the majority of the modal components of the WMAMMS Plan through the West Midlands Local Transport Plan and LTP's for the surrounding Shire Counties. This includes Park and Ride sites, the Showcase Bus network, the proposed " Red Routes", improvements to local roads and improved facilities for pedestrians and cyclists as well as the expanded Metro network.

  7.04  It is also essential that the implementation of Behavioural Change measures undergoes a step-change in service delivery. In part this can be achieved by increased funding, but the Study considered that the integration of service delivery through a conurbation-wide organisation, albeit one which might operate through a multitude of outlets, would improve consistency of delivery.

  7.05  Similarly, in the shorter term, WMAMMS recommends the gradual introduction of road user charging schemes based on cordons around major centres in the conurbation. The responsibility for implementing such schemes would rest with the individual Metropolitan Councils but an integrated approach across the area would be necessary.

  7.06  WMAMMS suggested that a partnership approach to delivery of the Plan between the local authorities and Centro would be desirable and we are aware that these bodies have already commenced working together to deliver the recommended Showcase Bus and "Red Route" measures through the LTP process. Should this approach fail to deliver the recommended package, then some major institutional changes might need to be considered, such as the establishment of a Regional Transport Authority for the West Midlands.

Heavy rail schemes

  7.07  The key facilitating agency for new rail investment is the Strategic Rail Authority (SRA). The heavy rail components of the 2031 Plan are extensive, including major works to provide a new underground station and tunnels at New Street and four-tracking of the Coventry-Birmingham-Wolverhampton WCML. Much of this investment will have national as well as regional benefits and the SRA would need to be satisfied that the proposals provide sufficient overall benefits against policy objectives to warrant support.

  7.08  WMAMMS was completed prior to the publication of SRA's Strategic Plan and in a period of uncertainty for rail investment. If the main heavy rail components of the WMAMMS Plan are not delivered then the full delivery of the Regional Express Rail system linked with Strategic Park and Ride sites would not be possible and forecast rail mode share would fall substantially below the WMAMMS forecasts. The bulk of the heavy rail investment envisaged by WMAMMS is however in the 10 to 20 year time frame and would need to be included in the SRA's Strategic Plan as it is rolled forwards.

Motorway and major road schemes

  7.09  The Highways Agency has the responsibility for the implementation of all motorway and trunk road schemes. As for the major rail schemes, the motorway improvement schemes included in the 2031 Plan will require further work to confirm engineering feasibility, environmental impact and economic viability.

  7.10  Although not proposed by WMAMMS as trunk road schemes the nature and scale of the western bypasses of Wolverhampton and Stourbridge and their function as part of a comprehensive package of measures, primarily to assist regeneration, would suggest that there is a need for further study to develop these recommended options. We are aware that the local authorities and the Highways Agency have instigated such studies since the completion of the Study.

October 2002