A.  THE OVERALL SCALE OF HOUSEBUILDING REQUIRED

  The proposals are generally welcome as they make a serious attempt to redress the years of under-investment in housing and the lack of comprehensive long-term planning for future household growth. Further it recognises the central role good quality, easily accessible housing has in creating a better future for everyone.

  Increasing housebuilding is not the simple answer to providing a firm foundation for future prosperity. The housing situation is made worse by the fact that a significant proportion of the present stock is either of poor quality or of a type that is no longer suitable to the needs and aspirations of the contemporary household. In former mill towns such as Bolton traditional terraced housing is a predominant feature. This is a housing product that had been built to meet the needs of a past generation, to accommodate the average household mix that is less common these days.

  Again using Bolton as an example, projected new housing requirements in the Borough should be contained without serious incursion into greenfield sites, however this estimation does not fully take into account the evolving demands and aspirations of customers.

  Housing choice is becoming an increasingly important element in judging the suitability of housing supply. For instance, generally speaking in areas like Bolton the older customer, preparing a move from a house, is less likely now to accept flatted accommodation, preferring to chose a bungalow. Many actually prefer to stay living in poor housing conditions rather than moving to accommodation that would meet their needs but not their aspirations. In a significant number of cases the opportunity of moving to a bungalow even challenges choice of location in the individual's list of housing priorities. So in this case housing choice can create a problem for both housebuilders and planners. Bungalows are a type of dwelling that does not provide opportunity for high density, therefore are a less attractive product for housebuilders, especially in areas where land is at a premium. Also planners can anticipate the growing demand from older people and translate this into a crude land requirement, however this estimate for new housebuilding does not take into account the impact of choice.

  The steady growth in numbers of older people as a percentage of the overall population, recently disclosed in census returns, indicates that provision of accommodation for this demographic sector will make them even more important consumers of new and improved housing as time goes on. As can be seen by the example given the difference between supply and demand can be greatly influenced by choice. Extrapolated across all housing markets, simple quantitative change does not necessarily result in a qualitative change. Whilst increase in resources is welcome there needs to be greater sophistication used in how these resources are used so as to provide the types of dwellings that people actually want and can reasonably expect.

B.  ARE THE PROPOSALS LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE HOUSE PRICES?

  Injecting capital into housebuilding in the way described seems unlikely to significantly reduce house prices. This is because so many other things in addition to housing shortage fuel the rates of house price rises. For instance, generally a buoyant economy (or even the perception of a buoyant economy) will continue to provide an impetus boosting housing prices. It could be argued that the proposed boost to housebuilding as a consequence of the proposed cash injection—however welcomed—will serve to fuel this buoyancy and, in turn, increase rather than deflate prices.

  Further housing, whilst providing for a basic human comfort need, is also an asset that can be used as source of investment. There is a present perception that "bricks and mortar" in some way provides a more safe/secure source of investment than stocks and shares, hence the rapid increase in the buy to let market. So long as housing is used as a preferred trading commodity within an unfettered market in this way, price inflation is an inevitability.

  In real terms, over the last 50 years, house values have risen at levels disproportionate to any other major product. The significant increase in homeownership over this period has played the major role in driving these values up. In Bolton for instance, homeownership is the preference of around 70% of all households. It is a product most consumers want and as such has inflation "hard-wired" into it.

  Unlike social housing, where priority of access to housing is given through consideration of housing need (tempered to some extent with the introduction recently of more housing choice), access to the sale market is largely governed by economic considerations. Within this market dynamic has grown a wide industry of developers, estate agencies, surveyors, conveyors etc. Their main interest, as players in a market economy, is to increase profit margins for themselves and their customers and thus they inevitably contribute towards the inflationary trajectory of house prices. The introduction of fettering this market by introducing key worker schemes, however in a limited way and within certain "hotspot" locations, is an interesting experiment. It attempts to turn back the tide of inflationary pressures and manipulate the market so that access to those whose employment contribution to the local infrastructure is an asset that gives them a preference above the ability to pay more than the next person. Rather than expecting the proposed increase in housebuilding to be a major deflatory influence on house prices the government should consider what other initiatives they can promote that serve to fetter the market through introducing special circumstance priorities. For instance weighting "the asset" of having a local connection may help in rural areas of high demand and low supply.

  The major concern from a regional and sub-regional perspective is that the growing differential house price inflation between the north and the south (especially the south east) serves to create the situation where the distribution of national resources across the country is unbalanced. Also that the stereotype of southern prosperity and northern decline is not perpetuated.

  It is wrong to assume that spiralling house prices in some parts of the country will eventually serve to re-distribute population. Here the idea is that housing in the south will become just too expensive for many people so they will migrate to the north. Or that in some way people will wish to realise some of their equity held in their homes in later life by moving north. This is a flawed assumption as it does not take into account the issue of how housing choice overrides housing need and that settlement tends to be determined as much by perception and aspiration as it is by simplified economic consideration.

  The Government has a responsibility to reduce the differential rate of house prices, not least because it has a detrimental effect on social and economic equality across the country. It is not clear if the proposals will achieve this in a significant way especially as the causes of price inflation are complex and deep rooted. However it is definitely a step in the right direction.

C.  THE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF NEW HOUSING, INCLUDING PLANS TO CONCENTRATE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH EAST

  The choice to concentrate development of one part of the country (albeit in four growth areas) to meet immediate demand needs to be considered very carefully. Whilst this is planned to presumably provide relief to London and other southern "saturated" areas, the impact of this proposal will have either a neutral or possibly negative effect on the rest of the country.

  The recent census information has shown that the north west has reduced in population since 1991. Whilst the greatest decline has occured in cities such as Manchester and Salford, Bolton and its neighbours have also experienced significant reductions, especially in areas of urban deprivation. Therefore the concentration on new development in the south east runs the risk of fuelling the continued migration from the region. These are areas of employment growth with self-sustaining economies, more housing will add to this prosperity and attract more economic migration.

  It is very encouraging that the Government has accepted the importance of business opportunity to housing demand. The single most important factor behind regional demographic difference is work prospects. Not just quantitative imbalances but qualitative job opportunities are of immense importance. In Bolton, for instance, the contraction of the traditional manufacturing base has been cushioned by the rise in service industries. Whilst this has helped to suppress unemployment levels it has created a low wage economy with low skill requirements and therefore less incentive for inner migration or population stability. Inevitably younger people seeking more skilled and better paid work opportunities are attracted by the perception of better prospects in areas of economic growth. Therefore the cycle of decline and differential investment begins. Simply creating low skilled job opportunities in areas of low unemployment is insufficient to reverse long term decline.

  Government encouragement of cutting edge, international, technologically advanced industry into areas of decline is the key. Businesses of this nature "anchor" and promote commercial prosperity in towns like Bolton. They need the ready supply of skilled staff and therefore create a demand for housing that wasn't there before. Similarly business diversity has to be "grown" so as to avoid the problems faced by many northern towns in the past when reliance was placed too much upon one main employer.

  Towards this goal, the government needs to insist that every regional economic strategy produced has clear and precise proposals for linking economic growth to housing development as a priority consideration not as an add-on. The failure to fully adopt this joined up approach—the linkage between economic and housing strategy—has hindered attempts at developing sustainable widescale regional/sub-regional regeneration in the past.

  The concentration on these four locations as new housing alternatives for people living in areas of high demand must be based upon an assumption that they will be successful because there will be sufficient quality job prospects to attract potential residents. If this is the case then why doesn't the government take a more radical approach and seek to encourage migration farther afield by promoting other areas as possible alternatives? Whilst existing arrangements promoting migration between selected southern and northern authorities have some merit. They fail to really deliver because they do not provide any easy access into employment for the migrant—the Government may wish to consider investigating a more expansive scheme open to everyone, not just social housing customers, which promotes both housing and employment (and/or) training. This would provide a more sustainable model for encouraging people to move to less economically active parts of the country—so that they can play an active part in its regeneration.

  Also legislators should consider that there are housing hotspots within other regions, for instance the demand for new housing is as equally acute in, say, as Cheshire as it is in the south east and that this should be taken into account when considering allocating by regional basis. Whilst our region's major housing problems are largely around low demand and market failure (real or potential) this should not mislead people into thinking that these are the only problems.

D.  WHETHER THE PROPOSALS WILL PROMOTE HIGH QUALITY SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES WHILST AVOIDING POORLY DESIGNED URBAN SPRAWL

  There is no set template for high quality sustainable housing. We can learn from past planning mistakes whilst exploiting new thinking in terms of design, technological advancement and in how communities interact. Bolton's approach has been to involve residents in the design and planning of their environment wherever and whenever possible. The increased housebuilding programme anticipated should provide a wonderful opportunity to meaningfully engage customers at an early stage in designing their future homes and every effort should be made to encourage this inclusive approach to the design process.

  The creation of sustainable communities is a primary concern of places like Bolton, as achieving these goes to the heart of major policies around social cohesion, crime and disorder, health and equality, and empowering local communities. The introduction of the Market Renewal Fund within pathfinder areas of market collapse provides a significant point of investment that should have a deep positive impact on housing in the region/sub-region. However the missing part of the jigsaw in terms of a comprehensive market renewal approach to the area's housing problems is in protecting those locations where market collapse is likely to take place without intervention. As these are more common than in those where the market has totally collapsed, it is an important oversight in the Government's approach to sustainable renewal.

  Further, should the resources flowing into the pathfinder areas be successful then it is important that their success should not be at the expense of those peripheral areas previously identified. The scheme would have had a less than anticipated benefit if it merely shifted the problem of market collapse around the sub-region. Therefore a more joined up approach to market renewal that takes investment beyond the pathfinder areas is essential.

E.  THE BALANCE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN HOUSING FOR SALE AND SOCIAL HOUSING

  As previously stated the public's general preference is for house-ownership. Fewer people chose to rent homes, rather they do so less by choice more by necessity. The reasons for this are complex and in some cases, are based upon misperceptions. The positive aspects of homeownership are overplayed whilst the positive benefits of social renting are not fully appreciated (for instance responsive repair services and access to housing largely based on need). Further negative connotations of expressions like "social housing" do little to build up residents' positive attitudes towards renting.

  As previously stated, housing provides a social function for everyone but has the capacity to be used as a financial asset by owners. This added value is a source for dichotomy between the two sectors and the starting point for pejorative perceptions. The government has to radically reconsider this aspect of housing and the potential threat to social cohesion it causes. The government needs to re-interpret the public's relationship to residential property by describing it in terms of a spectrum of home ownership, from outright ownership through to partial ownership. Perfecting incentive and equity models can develop "partial" ownership that allow tenants to use their stake in a property more as an asset as any owner could. Bolton will be investigating this aspect of tenure through its newly constituted Community Regeneration Arms Length Company (Bolton at Home) with the aim of devolving as much ownership to our customers as possible.

F.  THE EXTENT TO WHICH DECISIONS RELATING TO HOUSING, INCLUDING NUMBERS, TENURE AND DENSITY, SHOULD BE TAKEN BY CENTRAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT

  The intention should be that central government should provide local government sufficient flexibility and latitude that would allow them to deliver on the ambitious proposals contained in the announcement. Local authorities should be encouraged to maximise customer involvement in the process and apply local solutions to local problems reflecting local precedent—this can only be achieved by devolved decision-making. The Government has a role to play to ensure that local authorities apply these new powers in a fair and equitable way so as to preserve the spirit and intent of the proposals.

  There is also room for a regional perspective to be introduced that ensures that regional and sub-regional strategies are complied with and that cross-boundary working is ensured. Perhaps there is potential for developing this as part of the plans for regional assemblies?