How will humanitarian relief be
funded and what is needed?
37. Predicting how much money will be needed to deal
with the potential humanitarian consequences is, like so much
surrounding this potential conflict, largely guesswork. The UN
consolidated appeal started at US$37 million and jumped to US$93
million.[134] A UN
interagency preparedness paper issued in February 2003 states:
"the agencies have agreed that some US$123.5 million would
be necessary to sustain UN activities and to further expand the
operational scope of contingency planning for a three month period".[135]
Whatever the predictions, the cost will be massive both in providing
for humanitarian needs during a conflict and for reconstruction
following any military action. It is not yet clear how and when
these needs might be met. Iraq, despite being an oil-rich country,
owes over US$ 4 billion in foreign debt and war reparations.[136]
The cost of repairing infrastructure is also likely to be heavy.
Since the Gulf War the UK Government has contributed £115
million in aid to Iraq, £100 million through the UK's humanitarian
relief to Iraq and £15 million through the EC.[137]
DFID have also told us that they expect to spend a further £8
million, during this financial year, on their ongoing humanitarian
relief project for Iraq which is funded from its Iraq aid framework
line.[138] DFID's £100
million contingency budget has also been identified as a possible
source of funding.[139]
However, based on the evidence we heard, the scale of the humanitarian
need may well exceed the capacity of the international system.[140]
The likely impact of a breakdown in the existing OFF food distribution
systemwhich costs US$250 million per month for the food
and transport element alonewould leave a minimum of 10
million people without any source of food.[141]
In light of the scale of humanitarian relief needed, it is unlikely
that the funds so far identified by DFID will cover all the costs.
Although USAID has stated its intention to keep food distribution
systems running, precise information about how this might be funded
and the legal basis of funding arrangements for a programme established
by UN Security Council Resolution, has not been given.[142]
Christian Aid felt that: "there remains a lack of clarity
as to where funds would come from to pay for an emergency food
relief operation for several million people in the absence of
oil revenues".[143]
DFID is aware that the enormous scale of aid needed may be beyond
the capacity of the international system:
The upper estimates, which presume collapse of the
OFF and significant damage caused by conflict, would create needs
well beyond the financial scope of the international community's
current humanitarian budgets. This emphasises the need to refine
the military options to reduce these risksincluding minimising
disruption to the Iraqi oil revenues which pay for OFF. It will
also be important to share the costs of humanitarian assistance
across as wider group of countries and multilateral agencies as
possible, which will be made much easier by an appropriate UN
mandate.[144]
38. Although there is potential for an international
round of pledging, the lack of available funds is already having
an adverse effect. Discussion about resources earlier in the report
highlighted that necessary funds were not immediately available
to allow planning and preparations for the likely humanitarian
consequences of military action to take place. Save the Children
wrote that "at present there is no funding and little preparedness
planning...".[145]
NGOs may face a lack of funds but, far more worryingly, so does
the UN. Save the Children reported that its existing £60,000
budget line from DFID has been spent on purchasing supplies and
establishing distribution logistics but that these preparations
will only be sufficient for 2000 families from what may be as
many and 1 million displaced people.[146]
Christian Aid cited an unofficial UN OCHA report which states:
"all UN agencies have been facing severe funding constraints
that are preventing them from reaching the minimum level of preparedness"
and goes on to say that "the collapse of essential services
in Iraq... could lead to a humanitarian emergency of proportions
well beyond the capacity of UN agencies and other aid organisations".[147]
Despite pledges being made to a UN emergency fund at a conference
in Geneva on 15-16 February, the indication is that the scale
of humanitarian need will drastically outweigh the funds available
and that there is a severe lack of funds available immediately
for planning and preparation.[148]
Even if there is a successful international appeal, funding
shortfalls could remain. CARE International's Raja Jarrah said:
We fear that there will be a gap between what is
needed and what is provided. The evidence from Afghanistan in
terms of what was pledged by the international community and what
has come, shows that the gap remains enormous. If the international
community is to focus on Iraq, we want them to focus for the long
term to assist in the humanitarian disaster which, as I indicated,
will last for a considerable length of time.[149]
39. The pressure on the international system arising
from global humanitarian crises is enormous. Clare Short commented
that: "there is a real problem here of the enormous strains
on the international humanitarian system, which are very considerable,
we have got so many crises around the world, both in funding and
in the capacity of people and institutions to provide food and
reach people who are in need".[150]
DFID's written evidence rightly emphasised that it would be wrong
to divert resources away from one crisis to another.[151]
Whilst we are satisfied that resources will not be diverted away
from existing crises, we remain concerned about the media's inability
to give coverage to more than one humanitarian crises at a time.
DFID have told us that use of funds from its contingency reserve
for Iraq would not affect its overall aid budget but: "could
reduce DFID's capacity to respond to other emergencies which have
not yet occurred or supplement existing funding to ongoing emergencies".[152]
We are concerned that the international system lacks the financial
and resource ability to cope with multiple crises around the world
and echo the statement made by CARE International that: "We
are, as the Secretary of State's written evidence pointed out,
very, very worried about the loss of publicity of very serious
humanitarian disasters which are in place at the moment in Southern
Africa, in East Africa and we now have West Africa with the disruption
in Côte d'Ivoire".[153]
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