House of Commons Hansard Written Answers for 27 Mar 2003 (pt 10)

Fiscal Projections

Mr. Flight: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether National Audit Office audits of the key assumptions used for the fiscal projections made in the 2002 pre-Budget report audit (a) the process used in making these assumptions and (b) the assumptions themselves. [105333]

Ruth Kelly: In accordance with Sections 156 and 157 of the 1998 Finance Act, the National Audit Office has been invited to audit any changes to the key assumptions and conventions underlying the fiscal projections; these are set out in Box B1 of the 2002 pre-Budget report (Cm 5664). In addition, prior to the March 2000 Budget my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer invited the Comptroller and Auditor General to carry out a three-year 'rolling review' of these assumptions.

The remit for this exercise is set out in paragraph 6 of the Comptroller's report on the Audit of Assumptions for the 2002 Pre-Budget Report (HC 109, Session 2002–03):

To ensure that the key audited assumptions underpinning projections of the public finances remain valid, the Comptroller and Auditor General shall examine each audited assumption three years after its most recent audit (a) to review whether the assumption has resulted in reasonable and cautious projections of the elements of the public finances projections it relates to since it was first audited; and (b) to check that it remains a reasonable and cautious assumption to use in future projections of the public finances.

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Fiscal Rules

Mr. Flight: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer with reference to paragraph 2.10 of the pre-Budget report, Cm 5664, whether the Government are on target to meet their fiscal rules. [105334]

Ruth Kelly: Consistent with the "Code for Fiscal Stability", updated projections for the public finances will be set out in the Budget on 9 April 2003.

Food Imports

Mr. Lidington: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on steps he is taking to enhance the ability of HM Customs and Excise to check food imports. [104892]

John Healey: As my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs made clear in her written ministerial statement on 25 March 2003, Official Report, column 5WS, HM Customs and Excise will take on responsibility for anti-smuggling controls on meat and other products of animal origin arriving from third countries with effect from 11 April 2003.

Appropriate powers covering England, Wales and Scotland will come into force then, with equivalent powers in Northern Ireland following later. Commensurate with these new responsibilities, the Department for the Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (Defra) will make a transfer to Customs from the funds that the Government have made available to tackle these illegal imports. Customs will use these funds to increase front-line detection resources and provide support for this with improved intelligence, publicity and appropriate follow-up to detections.

FTSE 100

Mr. Flight: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what research was commissioned by his Department prior to the publication of the pre-budget report into the level of the FTSE 100 index between March and October 2002. [105340]

Ruth Kelly: The 2002 pre-Budget report included an extensive discussion of global equity market developments during 2002, including analysis of the FTSE 100 index. This discussion is set out in Box A1 on page 153 of the pre-Budget report. The audited equity price assumption for the public finance projections relates to the FTSE All-Share index and is set out in Box B1 on page 188 of the pre-Budget report.

Gross Domestic Product

Mr. Flight: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his Department's assessment is of how the current conflict in the middle east will affect GDP growth in (a) the UK and (b) the other G7 countries. [105335]

Ruth Kelly: The Government will publish updated forecasts for UK and G7 GDP growth in the Budget on 9 April taking into account all relevant factors, including the situation in the middle east.

David Davis: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what the GDP was in each region in each year since 1997. [105287]

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Ruth Kelly: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician. I have asked him to reply.

Letter from Len Cook to Mr. David Davis dated 27 March 2003:

As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your recent question on estimates of regional gross domestic product (GDP). (105287)

The term gross value added (GVA) is now used. Although these economic estimates have been historically referred to as GDP, under the European System of Accounts 95 (ESA95), they should be referred to as GVA at basic prices rather than GDP. This is because they are produced at basic prices, which includes the effects of taxes less subsidies on production. ONS has effected the change from GDP at factor cost to GVA at basic prices as part of implementation of ESA95, along with all other EU countries.

Latest estimates of regional GDP were published in February 2001 for the period 1989 to 1999. The following table shows GVA by Government Office Region (GOR) for the calendar years 1997 to 1999.

Total gross value added£ million

Government office region	1997	1998	1999
North East	24,202	25,294	25,875
North West	72,414	75,275	77,562
Yorkshire and The Humber	53,182	55,457	57,554
East Midlands	47,261	49,413	50,906
West Midlands	57,783	61,130	63,495
East of England	72,698	77,962	81,793
London	108,559	118,499	122,816
South East	108,276	116,024	121,956
South West	53,580	56,064	58,151
Wales	28,010	29,541	30,689
Scotland	58,650	62,153	64,050
Northern Ireland	15,952	16,501	17,003
Extra-Regio⁽⁸⁾	14,560	11,983	14,350
United Kingdom⁽⁹⁾	715,127	755,297	⁽¹⁰⁾787,386

⁽⁸⁾ Extra Regio is that part of the UK's economic territory which cannot be allocated to any specific region. The contribution to UK GDP of UK embassies abroad and UK forces stationed overseas is included in Extra-Regio, along with the element of GDP relating to activities taking place on the continental shelf.

⁽⁹⁾ Figures for all years may not sum due to rounding.

⁽¹⁰⁾ Regional figures for the latest year do not sum to the UK total due to the statistical discrepancy in the National Accounts. For years up to 1998 figures are based on fully reconciled national estimates of income and expenditure. At the time of this publication the 1999 data had not been completely reconciled and a statistical discrepancy exists, which is not broken down by region. For 1999 this discrepancy is £1,188 million.

Government Spending

Mr. Flight: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list (a) total Government spending, (b) the change in Government spending and (c) the proportion of total Government spending used for long-term capital investment in each year since 1999. [105325]

Mr. Boateng: Table B27 in the pre-Budget report 2002 sets out total managed expenditure and public sector investment in real terms from 1970–71.

Insurance and Corporation Taxes Act

Mr. Chope: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer for what reasons the recent changes were made by the Inland Revenue to their interpretation of section 660 of

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the Insurance and Corporation Taxes Act 1988; and what additional revenue he expects the Exchequer to receive as a result. [104794]

Dawn Primarolo: The Inland Revenue has not changed its interpretation of sections 660A to 669 of the Income and Corporation Taxes Act 1988.

Private Investment

Mr. Flight: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what research was conducted to reach his prediction in paragraph 2.26 of the pre-Budget report that private investment is expected to increase during 2003. [105336]

Ruth Kelly: Full details of the private investment forecast are set out in Annex A of the pre-Budget report.

Public Sector Finances

Matthew Taylor: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will place in the Library a copy of the assessment made by the Treasury Public Sector Finances Team and the Inland Revenue which was presented at the Treasury Management Board meeting on 4 November 2002. [104763]

Mr. Boateng: The presentation made to the Treasury Management Board constitutes internal advice and is exempt from disclosure under Exemption 2 of the Code of Practice on Access to Government Information.

Registration Officers

Dr. Iddon: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what progress he is making to introduce a right for registration officers to be heard at employment tribunals when they are unfairly dismissed. [105346]

Ruth Kelly: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician. I have asked him to reply.

Letter from Len Cook to Dr. Iddon, dated 27 March 2003:

As National Statistician and Registrar General, I have been asked to reply to your recent parliamentary question concerning the progress to introduce a right for registration officers to be heard at employment tribunals when they are unfairly dismissed. (105346)

In July 2002 the Department of Trade and Industry issued a Discussion Document of Employment Rights in Relation to Statutory Employment Rights. Currently they are analysing the responses to this wide-ranging discussion document, including those held by registration officers.

The White Paper, Civil Registration: Vital Change [CM5355], proposes that registration officers will be transferred to local authority employment and receive the employment protection currently held by local government officers, including the right to be heard at an employment tribunal. This will require legislative change.

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