Faster and Cheaper?
81. We have previously expressed reservations about
the way the MoD has claimed credit for how the initiative has
reduced the timescales needed for developing and producing new
equipment.[199]
The MoD's latest Performance Report cited an example of five years
being cut from the process for acquiring the Future Offensive
Air System.[200]
We recognise that affordability constraints inevitably mean that
there will be limits on the extent to which quickening of the
acquisition processes might be translated into earlier delivery,
but in our Report last February we highlighted how the speeding
up of the Future Offensive Air System programme had not brought
forward its in-service date, and had instead deferred the date
when key decisions would need to be made.[201]
More generally, the Major Projects Reports continue to show delays
and missed deadlines on many equipment programmes (Figures 2 and
3).
82. We also have some reservations about the cost
savings claimed for smart procurements. At its launch, the MoD
estimated that smart procurement would save £2 billion over
10 years. In our previous report on the MoD's reporting cycle,
we welcomed the potential for such savings, which were potential
(rather than actual) savings founded on funds removed from projects'
budgets.[202]
We called for future annual Performance Reports to provide details
of the achievements of smart procurement, whether already realised
or in the form of future budget reductions.[203]
We note that, 12 months on, the 1999-2000 Performance Report lists
three examples of such achievements, but provides no overall 'score'
for the initiative.[204]
Separately, however, we have established that over the two budget-setting
rounds since the SDR, the MoD has identified costing reductions
attributable to smart procurement on a range of individual projects,
which in total have removed £2 billion from previously planned
budgets for the 10 years to 2008.[205]
In the recent Spending Review, the MoD envisaged £750 million
of savings in the three years to 2003-04an additional £50
million a year on top of the savings previously profiled for those
years to meet the wider £2 billion target.[206]
83. But the picture on the savings achieved is not
that straightforward. The Public Accounts Committee reviewed progress
with smart procurement in its 1998 Major Projects Report, published
last July, and noted that some of the claimed financial savings
represent expenditure deferred beyond 2008 (the end of the 10
year period of the smart procurement savings target).[207]
Of the £2 billion of savings, the MoD anticipated that only
60% would be from programme cost reductions. 20% would come from
switching to PFI schemes and public-private partnerships and 20%
from rescheduling when expenditures would be incurred.[208]
Some of these planned savings represent reduced expenditure over
the life of a project, while others would involve additional
offsetting costs at a later date.[209]
In the Strategic Defence Review, the MoD
spoke in terms of 'over the next 10 years ... a reduction of some
£2 billion in acquisition costs',[210]
but an MoD memorandum to the Committee subsequently talked of
'removing from projected project costings £2 billion which
was otherwise planned to be incurred over the 10 year period',[211]
and the Performance Report and Investment Strategy contain similarly
looser definitions of the target.[212]
In such circumstances, future Performance Reports should provide
sufficient detail to demonstrate conclusively and fully the timescale,
cost and performance benefits obtained from smart procurement.
The MoD should also consider how longer term smart procurement
performance might be captured in the Defence Statistics reports.
84. When we put it to the MoD that its recent MoD
pronouncements suggest that it may be redefining the cost savings
required of smart procurement, the Department told us that the
£2 billion savings represent the net change in the cost of
projects over the 10 years, and that this would not mean that
the programme overall had become £2 billion cheaper, because
the savings on particular projects "have given us headroom
to put other elements in".[213]
We welcome the fact that smart procurement savings on individual
projects will not be translated directly into cuts in the overall
equipment procurement budget there are many areas of deficient
military capability that will take years to rectify, even in the
most benign of budgetary circumstances. This serves however
to contribute to the difficulty in identifying unambiguously that
the savings claimed for smart procurement are genuine, which fuller
reporting would help demonstrate.
85. The most recent Public Service Agreement (for
2001-02 onwards) now includes a target for achieving smart procurement
savings£750 million over the three years to 2003-04[214]providing
a basis for such performance reporting in the near-term. Before
that, there had been no specific smart procurement target in 1999-2000,
although there had been targets for maximum slippage and cost
overruns for the projects covered in the annual Major Projects
Report.[215]
The MoD missed one of these project slippage targets (Figure 2),
but in the Performance Report it does not quantify by how much
these targets were 'missed' or 'met'.
Figure 2: PSA Targets for Major Projects
| | Targets
| Results
|
| | 1999-2000
| 2000-01
| 1999-2000
|
| Average in-year slippage (for 'new' projects)
| £ 1 month
| £ 10 days
| 'met'
|
| Average in-year slippage (for 'existing' projects)
| £ 10 weeks
| £ 4 weeks
| 'missed'
|
| Average cost overrun |
nil | nil
| 0.2% decrease
|
86. Analysis of the Major Projects Report 2000 does
not provide much illumination, primarily, it would appear, because
the basis for including projects in the Report changed during
1999-2000. It used to include the 25 largest projects, but now
covers the 20 largest projects that have passed their 'main gate'
assessment stage (now the first point at which target in-service
dates are defined).[216]
The Major Projects Report 2000,[217]
published last November, reports an in-year cost improvement
for these 20 'main gate' projects of 0.2%,[218]
but slippage of 3 months for 'post-smart procurement' projects
and 3.2 months for 'pre-smart procurement' projects.[219]
Performance on the 'new' and 'existing' projects of the Public
Service Agreement, it would appear, is not the same as performance
with 'pre-' and 'post-smart procurement' projects of the Major
Projects Report.
87. The situation is made more confusing still because
the corporate plan and the annual report[220]
of the Defence Procurement Agency use a third set of data. The
DPA's key indicators monitor project performance for cumulative
(rather than in-year) cost and time overruns for MPR projects,
and exclude projects that have entered service during the year.[221]
The Agency has also had to recast its targets to reflect the change
in the definition of MPR projects during the year (Figure 3).[222]
Figure 3: The Defence Procurement Agency's project
cost and timelines targets, 1999-2000
| | Targets
| Results
|
| | On a pre-MPR 2000 basis
| Recast Targets
|
|
| Average cumulative slippage
| 26 mths
| 19.9 mths
| 21.8 mths
|
| Average cumulative cost overruns
| 4% |
5.7% | 3.5%
|
88. Despite the difficulty in reconciling
the MoD's performance data, the results do indicate satisfactory
performance against targets for cost overruns, if not on delays.
There should in future be a better performance in meeting
target in-service dates than was previously the case, because
the basis of measuring slippage in future Major Projects Reports
should make it easier. Specifically, the target in-service date
will be that set at a project's 'main gate' approval (rather than
when the project first gets off the ground, as was previously
the case). Nevertheless, the increasingly demanding targets
for reducing both cost overruns and delays (in both the Public
Service Agreement, and within the DPA's Corporate Plan) are a
welcome indicator of the MoD's confidence in being able to secure
improvements in the way its projects are managed. Improvements
in these areas would be an important step towards meeting the
smart procurement objectives of reducing projects' timescales
and costs that underpinned such targets.
89. We were told by our MoD witnesses that the Department
was looking to broaden the scope of its monitoring of its project
management performance. In its 1999-2000 Performance Report it
set out data for 100 projects, which puts a better light on the
MoD's achievementsan average in-year slippage of only 0.6
months and a reduced average cost in the year of 0.6%.[223]
This was part of a more detailed analysis by the MoD of the major
programmes with expenditures expected to be greater than £100million,
which would encompass quality and reliability, as well as time
and cost.[224]
The Permanent Secretary told us that
I would not pretend that
what we have done so far is more than a transitional way of satisfying
ourselves that we are getting a grip on these costs ... A lot
of the £2 billion [smart procurement savings] will come from
projects that are outside the 30 'major' projects. What I am developing
within the DPA now is a performance system that encompasses projects
in the lower category, the 100 or so bigger projects, but outside
the 30.[225]
We welcome the wider data capture in the MoD's
monitoring of its project management performance, the results
of which, we were told, will be made available to the House.[226]
Better?
90. Since its inception, smart procurement has been
founded on a need to prevent recurring criticism in the NAO's
annual Major Projects Reports about cost overruns and time slippages.[227]
How the initiative would deliver 'better' equipment has been less
apparent. Some aspects of smart procurement would clearly help
to create the necessary conditions for thisa through-life
approach, partnering with industry to define requirements that
are achievable, and 'incremental acquisition' which could allow
equipment to be fielded where without it moving the specification
bar ever higher might prevent the equipment ever clearing it.
Indeed, we heard that smart procurement savings would be claimed
where savings resulted from capabilities for equipment being reduced,
provided wider operational capabilities were not lost
... as long as the capability
is met, the detailed specification of how it is delivered can
change.[228]
91. Whether 'better' equipment will be acquired,
however, is as yet difficult to demonstrate. In a number of cases
in the last year or so, requirements have been scaled back and
interim capabilities sought as part of an incremental acquisition
approach. An example was the Bowman communication system where
its security requirements were curtailed to make the programme
more affordable, and delivery earlier than it might otherwise
be.[229]
In our report last year on Major Procurement Projects, we cautioned
against such relaxations if the result were a capability with
a functionality little advanced from its predecessor systems,
or one unable to counter new and sophisticated communications
threats.[230]
In the particular case of Bowman, the changes belatedly being
introduced in the management of the project were largely aimed
at rescuing the programme from the mire rather than delivering
better equipment. More generally, it seems to us, there may
be a fine line between acquiring better equipment through incremental
acquisition and settling for 'worse' equipment by reducing its
prospective potency, range or other capabilities. This is an issue
that will remain at the heart of our annual examination of major
procurement projects.
Smart Acquisition
92. The MoD has now redubbed smart procurement as
'smart acquisition'. This was intended to reflect the whole-life
nature of the equipment acquisition cycle, which includes its
in-service support managed by the Defence Logistic Organisation.
The creation of the DLO was part of the reforms introduced with
smart procurement, and about a quarter of the 138 'integrated
project teams' now operate within it. The £750 million target
for the next three years is for savings on the procurement
budget,[231]
but the MoD told us that it is looking to develop performance
measures to cover the in-service performance and availability
of equipment, to reflect the wider remit of smart acquisition.
[232]
93. The DLO itself already has two key targetsthe
PSA target of reducing non-explosive stocks by £2.2 billion
by April 2001,[233]
and a reduction in DLO 'output cost' of 20% by 2005. [234]
Our recent report on the lessons of Kosovo highlighted how close
the MoD came to running out of some munitions, and the cost (£234
million) of the MoD's 'urgent operational requirements' to buy
new equipment or replenish low stocks. We discussed the criteria
the MoD was using to identify surplus stocks,[235]
and although apparently sensible the Department will have to maintain
a cautious approach to this exercise.[236]
As regards the DLO's efficiency target, Mr Tebbit told us that
That comes essentially from
integrating the three big separate [logistics] organisations with
a sort of small headquarters with a much more devolved management
system. Like a lot of things, this is an area where it is spend-to-save.
We need a lot of investment in IT systems necessary to reduce
the size of the organisation. 2005 is the date for doing this
...[237]
We have got an awful lot of stuff we do not need
and do not use. Getting better at supporting equipment does not
necessarily mean buying more spares. When we get a more transparent
supply system we will know what we can get from industry...[238]
195 Most notably in our reports on the Strategic Defence
Review and the Annual Reporting Cycle Back
196 Second
Report, Session 1999-2000, op cit, para 129 Back
197 Good
descriptions of what the initiative is about can be found in those
reports, and in the NAO's Major Projects Report 1999 (HC 613,
1999-2000) Back
198 The
Strategic Defence Review,
July 1998, Cm 3999, para 161 Back
199 Second
Report, Session 1999-2000, op cit, para 132 Back
200 Cm
5000, para 80 Back
201 Second
Report, Session 1999-2000, op cit, para 132 Back
202 ibid Back
203 ibid,
para 133 Back
204 Cm
5000, para 80 Back
205 Ev
p71, para A3; and HC Deb 14 March 2001, c 602w Back
206 Ev
p71, para A3 Back
207 Thirty-Third
Report from the Committee of Public Accounts, Session 1999-2000,
Ministry of Defence: Major Projects Report 1998, HC 247,
para 4 (xvi) Back
208 ibid,
para 41, figure 2 Back
209 ibid Back
210 The
Strategic Defence Review,
Cm 3999, para 161 Back
211 Ev
p71, para A3 Back
212 Investment
Strategy, para 44; and Cm
5000, p35 Back
213 Q
211 (see also QQ 215, 216) Back
214 PSA
target 8 (Ev p76) Back
215 Cm
5000, p11 Back
216 The
Major Projects Report also covers separately the 10 largest pre-main
gate projects Back
217 Ministry
of Defence: Major Projects Report 2000,
HC 970, Session 1999-2000 Back
218 ibid,,
para 1.8 Back
219 ibid,
para 1.16 Back
220 Defence
Procurement Agency Annual Report and Accounts 1999-2000, HC
19 Back
221 HC
19, op cit, p 8; and DPA Corporate Plan 2000, p
21 Back
222 HC
19, op cit, p 9 Back
223 Cm
5000, p34 Back
224 QQ
127-128 Back
225 ibid Back
226 Q
215 Back
227 SDR
Supporting Essays, Essay
10, paras 3 and 4 Back
228 Q
135 Back
229 Tenth
Report, Session 1999-2000, Major Procurement Projects,
HC 528, para 41et seq Back
230 ibid,
para 50 Back
231 Ev
p 71, para A4 Back
232 Ev
p 71, para A3 Back
233 Cm
5000, pp 12 and 33; Ev p 72, para A5 Back
234 Q
149 Back
235 QQ
137-144 Back
236 Ev
p 80, last paragraph Back
237 Q
149 Back
238 Q
51 Back