A.  PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL BACKGROUND

1.  Do you have any business or financial connections or other commitments which might give rise to a conflict of interest in carrying out your duties as a member of the MPC?

  No.

2.  Are there any relevant personal or other factors of which the Treasury Committee should be aware in considering your nomination?

  No.

3.  Do you intend to serve out the full term for which you are appointed?

  Yes.

4.  Please explain how your experience to date has equipped you to fulfil your responsibilities as a member of the MPC.

  I have taught economics and undertaken research at LSE and the University of Oxford since 1970, following a spell as an economics post-graduate. Prior to that I taught Mathematics at Hendon County School.

  My research has covered a number of areas including investment, productivity, wage determination, unemployment and aspects of corporate and national economic performance generally. Particular areas where I have some expertise include:

—  The determinants of unemployment and employment.

—  Wage determination at the national, regional and company level.

—  The determinants of productivity growth at the company and national level.

—  The role of financial factors in wage and employment determination.

—  The operation of macro-econometric models. I was a member of the Treasury Academic Panel during the 1980s and a consultant to the SSRC/ESRC Macro-Modelling Consortium for many years.

  The setting of interest rates to hit an inflation target depends crucially on judgements about how aggregate demand is likely to evolve relative to supply potential. My expertise is particularly concerned with the latter although my work on financial factors and investment is relevant to the way in which interest rates feed through into aggregate demand.

B.  ACCOUNTABILITY

5.  How important do you think it is for MPC members to be subject to ex post parliamentary accountability?

  Having delegated the setting of short-term interest rates to the MPC, it is clear that both the executive and the legislature should be in a position to ensure that it is doing its job properly. One aspect of this is that Parliament is able to hold individual members of the Committee to account for their decisions. This involves the MPC providing timely information to both Parliament and the general public on the decisions of its members and the reasons underlying them. The openness and transparency of the whole process is crucial in generating public confidence, particularly when there are inevitably going to be some individuals who will be disadvantaged by any particular decision.

6.  If you were to stand for reappointment to the MPC at the end of your term, what criteria do you believe should be used to assess your individual record as a MPC member?

  Criteria for assessment of my record should be as follows: I have made a significant and positive contribution to the analysis of the MPC in the view of both other members of the Committee and outside observers of its workings. This does not mean that everyone should think that all my arguments and decisions have been correct but simply that they see them as being based on sensible and justifiable analyses of the situation. Of course, the ultimate proof of the MPC pudding is in the inflationary eating. But, given the lags between interest rate changes and inflation as well as uncertainties surrounding other causal factors, it seems unlikely that the mistakes of individual members of the Committee can be pinpointed as being the cause of significant under- or over-shooting of the inflation target. Nevertheless, if things go wrong on the inflation front, this would rightly influence the assessment of my performance.

C.  MONETARY AND ECONOMIC POLICY

7.  Is the framework of an explicit inflation target the best within which to conduct monetary policy? Given that an explicit target has been set, should the target be RPI(X) alone or should it also include asset prices (including the exchange rate)?

  My reading of the evidence of the last 20 years of British economic policy making is that having a specific inflation target works better than having a monetary target or an exchange rate target, when it comes to the conduct of monetary policy. Furthermore, I think that symmetry is of vital importance (ie undershooting is as bad as overshooting) in order to avoid any deflationary bias.

  With regard to the second question, it is current practice to take account of house prices, financial asset prices and the exchange rate in setting interest rates in order to hit the RPI(X) target, because all these factors directly influence aggregate demand in ways which are reasonably well understood. However, the question suggests that the target itself should include things such as house prices, financial asset prices and the exchange rate. In practice this would mean, I assume, that the overall objective was a weighted sum of an RPI(X) target, target inflation rates for house prices and financial asset prices and a target level of the exchange rate. I would not favour this. First, it would be technically very difficult. The MPC would find it very hard to explain its actions and the process of setting interest rates would be completely opaque. Second, the targets would never even be close to being hit, because by manipulating short-term interest rates it is impossible to control inflation, asset price inflation and the exchange rate. The MPC would then be perceived to have failed. Third, as a consequence of the above, it is likely that the economy would be less stable and most people would end up worse off.

8.  Do you believe that there is any trade-off between inflation and unemployment (or output) in the short run or in the long run?

  Inflation and unemployment are outcome variables in the sense that changes in both inflation and unemployment will emerge as a consequence of the shocks hitting the economy. It makes little sense to see one as the cause or consequence of the other.

  In the short run, an adverse demand shock (eg a world recession) will typically lead to a rise in unemployment and a fall in inflation. An adverse supply shock (eg a fall in trend productivity or a rise in commodity prices) will typically lead to a rise in unemployment and a rise in inflation. The former underlies the notion of a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment, and I would certainly accept this. Over the long run (ie thinking of decade long averages), the evidence suggests there is no particular reason for believing that low levels of unemployment are associated with high levels of inflation. Thus in Britain in the 1990s, both inflation and unemployment were lower, on average, than in the 1980s.

  How does this relate to monetary policy? An easy way to think about this is as follows. Ignoring lags and uncertainties, monetary policy (partly) controls demand and hence unemployment. So the aim is to set demand, and unemployment, at the level of potential supply. If this is done, inflation will remain stable. If policy raises demand above potential supply, unemployment will fall but inflation will rise and it will go on rising until demand falls back to potential supply, either because of a reversal of policy or because of some other mechanism (eg consumption tends to fall with rising inflation). The trade-off is between lower unemployment and rising inflation, not between lower unemployment and higher inflation. Of course, what makes monetary policy difficult is that we do not know precisely when, and by how much, changes in monetary policy influence demand nor do we know precisely the path of potential supply, nor can we predict all other relevant shocks.

9.  Do you believe that the natural rate of unemployment is a useful concept? On your assessment where is unemployment currently relative to the natural rate? How would an increase in the rate of productivity affect the sustainable rate of employment?

  The natural or equilibrium rate of unemployment is a useful, indeed necessary, concept, since it is one of the essential building blocks of potential supply. To get a handle on the path of potential supply (of output), start from the labour force (those who are working or seeking work), subtract off equilibrium unemployment, multiply by an estimate of average hours worked per worker and then multiply by trend productivity (trend output per hour worked).

  Equilibrium unemployment is the level of unemployment below which the labour market will start generating inflationary pressure. It is not constant and is influenced by a variety of labour market institutions and structures. In particular, it is influenced by how willing and able unemployed individuals are to fill the stock of vacancies. Their willingness to fill vacancies is a personal decision depending on offered wages, the ease and expense of commuting, the level of benefits, etc. Their ability to fill vacancies depends on their skill levels and the judgements of potential employers. For example, employers are known to be less keen to employ individuals who have been unemployed for a long time.

  The other key factor that influences the equilibrium unemployment rate is the extent that employees can exert upward pressure on wages even when the labour market is slack. Adversarial unions may generate such pressure as may legislated wages (eg a minimum wage).

  In my view equilibrium unemployment today is considerably lower than it was in the 1980s and early 1990s partly because of changes in the operation of the benefit system and partly because trade unions are both less adversarial and cover a much smaller proportion of the private sector. Precisely where unemployment is relative to the equilibrium rate today is not known. It is almost certainly fairly close but to judge precisely where it is can only be done by looking closely at the evidence for excess demand in the labour market (eg labour shortages, rising wage inflation and so on).

  I assume the final question refers to the rate of productivity  growth. In the long run, the evidence suggests that there is no relationship between the trend rate of productivity growth and the equilibrium rate of unemployment. In the short-run, if there is a permanent increase in trend productivity growth, there may be a temporary fall in equilibrium unemployment until wage growth catches up with the higher rate. This process may last for some time.

10.  Do you think that increases in average earnings caused by bonus payments are any less inflationary than increases caused by a rise in settlements? How reliable do you think the current earnings figures are and how do you think the MPC should treat them when reaching their interest rate decisions?

  It all depends. Bonus payments which are based on a fixed formula relating to the previous year's profits, say, or are given as a direct payment for increased effort will not feed through into prices in the same way as a rise in settlements. What counts for prices is average payment per unit of effort relative to output per unit of effort. Profit related bonuses which are genuine (ie based on a fixed formula) should be averaged over several years to see their impact on prices. However, bonus payments which are simply extra payments to retain staff or attract new staff can easily become consolidated into pay and will feed through into prices in so far as the firm expects them to be more or less permanent (eg if the firm promises a regular bonus of two weeks pay every Christmas). There is some evidence that measured bonus payments, on average, have less of an impact on prices than settlements.

  As I understand it, there are reasons for thinking that the earnings data are more reliable than they used to be, but in terms of judging the extent of inflationary pressure in the labour market, the MPC would want to look at all evidence on both pay and labour shortages. For example, the April 2000 New Earnings Survey data will help to give us a fix on what is happening on the pay front.

11.  What weight do you place on (a) the monetary aggregates and (b) the output gap in your assessment of inflation prospects?

  Monetary aggregates are outcome variables in the sense that given an interest rate policy, demand and supply shocks will determine the path of wages, employment, output, inflation and monetary aggregates. Monetary aggregates would be useful in the setting of interest rates if there were a stable relationship between monetary aggregates and subsequent movements in output and inflation. My reading of the evidence is that the relationship between monetary aggregates and subsequent movements in output and inflation has not been very stable over the last two decades. This militates against placing too much weight on the monetary aggregates when attempting to forecast inflation.

  The output gap refers to the gap between output and potential output. Since, in order to have stable inflation, we need to keep output demand in line with potential supply, the concept of the output gap is critical. The problem is, as we have already noted, that potential supply is not observed and so neither is the output gap. A key part of the MPC's business is using every bit of information it can to try and ascertain precisely how output demand is moving relative to potential supply.

12.  What effects do you think the information and communications revolution will have on the economy? How should it affect the conduct of monetary policy?

  There is strong evidence that information and communications technology (ICT) has raised the trend rate of productivity growth in the United States in the last two or three years. Given that the UK is a few years behind the US in the effective use of ICT, it is possible that there will be an increase in trend productivity growth in the UK at some stage. However, there is, as yet, no evidence in the UK productivity data of any such increase. Furthermore it may be that weakness in skills and lack of competitive intensity in many sectors of the UK economy will attenuate the expected productivity surge.

  If trend productivity growth does increase, it will raise the rate of growth of potential supply both directly and via the extra non-inflationary employment generated while wage growth is catching up. It will also raise aggregate demand, via asset price effects, at an early stage of the process. The MPC will obviously have to judge the balance of these two effects.

13.  To what extent should fiscal policy play a demand management role alongside monetary policy? If you think greater fiscal action is desirable, what instruments would you recommend?

  Fiscal policy has a direct impact on the time path of the demand for output and hence on inflation. The MPC takes account of this when setting interest rates. Given the transparency of this process, those who are responsible for fiscal policy are able to predict fairly accurately the consequences of their actions on monetary policy. This is as it should be. Recommendations on fiscal policy I leave to others.

14.  What role should econometric (and other) models play in the formulation of interest rate policy?

  Econometric models are vital in the formulation of interest rate policy. They may not be very useful for forecasting some of the key variables (eg the exchange rate!) but once agreement has been reached on what should be assumed about the likely future paths of these variables, then econometric models allow the MPC to trace through the probable consequences for inflation, based on how relationships have operated in the past. Of course, the future may not be like the past, so it is essential to keep watch on relationships and to use all sources of information to see whether they might be changing. So econometric models can only be used in the context of an overall judgement using all available information. But in this context, they are of critical importance.

D.  INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

15.  What factors have caused sterling to be so strong over the last three years? What do you see the outlook for sterling being over the next 18 months and how might the actions of the MPC affect this? What actions could the government take to ease the pound down and should it try?

  Since 1995, the Pound has risen by over 35 per cent against the currencies of its trading partners. It has risen by around 14 per cent against the Euro in the past year despite the fact that the short-term interest rate differential between Britain and the Euro-zone has closed by around 40 basis points over the same period. Furthermore, over this period the German and French stockmarkets rose by around 40 per cent whereas the FTSE 100 has fallen.

  Fairly plausible ex-post commentaries on exchange rate movements are easy to construct but it should be recognised that ever since 1996, the Pound has been expected to fall. In other words, while the past is pretty simple to forecast, the future has proved to be impossible to discern.

  A reasonable view as to how exchange rates behave is as follows. First, there is an equilibrium real exchange rate which refers to the level of the real exchange rate which is consistent with internal and external equilibrium. This would depend on a variety of real factors. Second, the actual real exchange rate moves around the equilibrium rate with a very weak tendency to move towards this equilibrium rate. Third, a positive interest rate differential between domestic and foreign economies tends to be associated with a positive deviation from the equilibrium rate. Fourth, the (nominal) exchange rate itself will also be influenced by expectations about domestic relative to foreign inflation.

  The consequences are that movements of the exchange rate are generated (i) by shifts (and expected shifts) in the equilibrium rate, (ii) by shifts in the interest rate differential, (iii) by shifts in expectations about relative inflation and (iv) by large, random movements which may be based on (i) or (iii) but are often hard to explain ex-post and are impossible to forecast. The key feature of (i) is that any factor which contributes to a belief that relative productivity or growth performance is going to improve will tend to lead to an upward shift in the equilibrium exchange rate. Similarly with (iii), any factor which contributes to a belief that the relative inflation performance is going to improve will lead to an upward move in the exchange rate. These factors open up the possibility that news about a wide range of variables will directly impact on the exchange rate. For example, the recent performance of the Euro may reflect increased unease about long-term prospects in the Euro-zone arising from apparently minor things like some adverse remarks by pundits. When market participants feel very unsure about long-term prospects, the market may become very sensitive to any given piece of news.

  All this means is that any forecasts I make about the future course of the Pound are probably not worth the paper they are written on. The Pound will fall significantly relative to the Euro at some stage. This is more likely to happen sooner rather than later but it is possible that it will not happen for years.

  The outlook for sterling would be strongly influenced by the actions of the MPC. For example, if the MPC, by its actions or by the comments or behaviour of its members, gave some indication that it was not on top of its job of hitting the inflation target, domestic inflationary expectations would rise, sterling would fall and, one way or another, interest rates would have to rise more than they otherwise would. It goes without saying that I would not favour such actions.

  What actions could the government take to ease the pound down? The word ease is important here, because many possible actions could bring the pound down with a bump. Examples include raising the MPC's inflation target or providing the MPC with an exchange rate target. Easing down might be achieved by a unilateral or multilateral effort to raise the Euro by G7 announcements and a series of government purchases of Euro securities. This, however, might not work and could be accompanied by large losses of taxpayers' money. I would not favour any of these actions but if it were felt that "something must be done", then a coherent G7 operation seems the best option.

  In conclusion, I should mention a final possibility which is for the government to announce a process for joining the Euro. This involves matters of political judgement upon which I would rather not comment.

16.  Can sustained but temporary misalignments of the exchange rate have long-lasting effects on the economy? How, if at all, do you think this should be taken on board in the conduct of monetary policy?

  Sustained but temporary exchange rate misalignments do have long-lasting effects. A high exchange rate typically lowers the sterling price received by firms who export goods and paid by firms and individuals who import goods. Firms which, on balance, do more exporting than importing make lower profits or losses, firms which, on balance, do more importing than exporting make higher profits and the rest of us are better off so long as we remain in work. The long lasting effects arise from the fact that neither people nor capital goods are completely fungible and mobile. Exporting firms may lay off workers, close down plants and close down sales networks abroad. The laid off workers and the closed plants cannot be transformed immediately into different sorts of workers or different sorts of plants in different places. The workers will typically suffer spells of unemployment and loss of earnings when they do get back to work. The plants will typically close for ever. The foreign sales networks are expensive to reconstitute. The structure of industry may be different for a good while, but probably not for ever.

  Long lasting currency misalignments, will typically slow down or speed up changes which are going on all the time. Of course a rapid contraction in one sector will blight more lives and more areas than a steadier decline. However, to put plant closures into perspective, it should be appreciated that around 300,000 people become unemployed every month and the same number get new jobs.

  One of the by-products of a successful monetary policy regime is to help generate a high level of stability and to avoid massive swings in output and employment which will have long lasting effects. The best way of taking this into account is to focus on maintaining stable inflation.

17.  What role do you think the IMF should play in today's globalised economy?

  The role of the IMF is to help maintain financial stability and to assist countries which suffer adverse financial shocks. I do not have the requisite knowledge to make detailed recommendations about its operations.

STEPHEN JOHN NICKELL FBA

  Date of Birth: 25 April 1944

Academic History:

  1962-65 Pembroke College, Cambridge. BA Mathematics.

  1965-68 Mathematics Teacher, Hendon County School, London.

  1968-70 London School of Economics. MSc Mathematical Economics and Econometrics (distinction). Ely Devons Prize.

  1970-77 Lecturer in Economics, London School of Economics.

  1974-75 Visiting Research Fellow, Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Economique, Paris.

  1977-79 Reader in Economics, London School of Economics.

  1979 Visiting Research Associate, University of Princeton (Industrial Relations Section).

  1979-84 Professor of Economics, London School of Economics.

  1984-98 Professor of Economics and Director of the Institute of Economics and Statistics, University of Oxford. Professorial Fellow of Nuffield College.

  1998- School Professor of Economics, London School of Economics.

Academic Honours:

  1980 Fellow of the Econometric Society

  1993 Fellow of the British Academy

  1997 Foreign Honorary Member of the American Economic Association

Publications:

  Books

  The Investment Decisions of Firms, Cambridge Economic Handbook Series, Cambridge University Press, 1978.

  Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market, Oxford University Press, 1991 (with R Jackman and R Layard).

  The Unemployment Crisis, Oxford University Press, 1994 (with R Jackman and R Layard).

  The Performance of Companies, Blackwells, 1995.

Edited Books

  The Rise in Unemployment, Basil Blackwell Ltd, 1987 (with C Bean and R Layard).

  The Nature of Unemployment in Britain: Studies of the DHSS Cohort, Clarendon Press, Oxford 1989 (with W Narendranathan, J Stern and J Garcia).

Articles in Refereed Journals

  "On the Role of Expectations in the Pure Theory of Investment", The Review of Economic Studies, January 1974.

  "On Expectations, Government Policy and the Rate of Investment", Economica, August 1974.

  "A Closer Look at Replacement Investment", Journal of Economic Theory, February 1975.

  "Wage Structures and Quit Rates", International Economic Review, February 1976.

  "On the Properties of Linear Decision Rules and Their Derivation by an Iterative Procedure", Econometrica, March 1976 (with J Tymes).

  "The Structure of Hours and Earnings in British Manufacturing Industry",  Oxford Economic Papers, July 1976 (with D Metcalf and R Richardson).

  "The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment", Economic Journal, March 1977.

  "Uncertainty and Lags in the Investment Decisions of Firms", Review of Economic Studies, June 1977.

  "Trade Unions and the Position of Women in the Industrial Wage Structure", The British Journal of Industrial Relations, July 1977.

  "Monopolistic Industries and Monopoly Profits", Economic Journal, June 1978 (with D Metcalf).

  "The Effect of Collective Bargaining on Relative and Absolute Wages", British Journal of Industrial Relations, November 1978 (with R Layard and D Metcalf).

  "Fixed Costs, Employment and Labour Demand Over the Cycle", Economica, November 1978.

  "The Effect of Unemployment and Related Benefits on the Duration of Unemployment", Economic Journal, March 1979.

  "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment", Econometrica, September 1979.

  "Education and Lifetime Patterns of Unemployment", Journal of Political Economy, October (Part II) 1979.

  "Unemployment and the Structure of Labour Costs" in the Carnegie-Rochester Public Policy Conference Series, No 11, published as a supplement to the Journal of Monetary Economics, 1979.

  "The Case for Subsidising Extra Jobs", Economic Journal, March 1980 (with R Layard).

  "The Analysis of Re-Employment Probabilities for the Unemployed", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 143, Part 2, 1980 (with Tony Lancaster).

  "A Picture of Male Unemployment in Britain", Economic Journal, December 1980.

  "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects", Econometrica, November 1981.

  "The Determinants of Occupational Success in Britain", Review of Economic Studies, January 1982.

  "Wages and Unemployment: A General Framework", Economic Journal, March 1982.

  "Still Searching for an Explanation of Unemployment in Inter-War Britain", Journal of Political Economy, April 1982 (with D Metcalf and N Floros).

  "The Determinants of Equilibrium Unemployment in Britain", Economic Journal, September 1982.

  "Unemployment in the United Kingdom Since the War", Review of Economic Studies, October 1982 (with M Andrews).

  "Occupational Mobility in Great Britain", Research in Labor Economics, Vol V, 1982 (with D Metcalf).

  "Unions, Real Wages and Employment in Britain 1951-79", Oxford Economic Papers, November, 1983 (with M Andrews).

  "The Estimation of Vintage Production Models in UK Manufacturing", Swedish Journal of Economics, 85, 1983 (with G Mizon).

  "An Investigation of the Determinants of Manufacturing Employment in the UK", Review of Economic Studies, October 1984.

  "Individual Earnings in the US. Another Look at Unionization, Schooling, Sickness and Unemployment Using PSID Data", Journal of Labor Economics, January 1985 (with G Chowdhury).

  "The Causes of British Unemployment", National Institute Economic Review, February 1985 (with R Layard).

  "Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository Note", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, May 1985.

  "Unemployment Benefits Revisited", Economic Journal, June 1985 (with W Narendranathan and J Stern).

  "The Government's Policy for Jobs: An Analysis", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1, No. 2, 1985.

  "Modelling the Process of Job Search", Journal of Econometrics, 28, 1985 (with W Narendranathan).

  "An Investigation into the Incidence and Dynamic Structure of Sickness and Unemployment in Britain, 1965-75", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, Part 3, 1985 (with W Narendranathan and D Metcalf).

  "Understanding Unemployment", Empirica (Austrian Economic Papers), 12, No 2, 1985.

  "Unemployment, Real Wages and Aggregate Demand in Europe, Japan and the US", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 23, Autumn, 1985 (with R Layard).

  "Unemployment in Britain", Economica (Special Issue on Unemployment), August, 1986 (with R Layard).

  "The Rise of Unemployment. A Multi-Country Study", Economica (Special Issue on Unemployment), August, 1986 (with C Bean and R Layard).

  "A Disaggregated Disequilibrium Model of the Labour Market", Oxford Economic Papers, November, 1986 (with M Andrews).

  "Why is Wage Inflation in Britain So High?", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, February, 1987.

  "Unions, Wages and Employment", European Economic Review, 32, 4, 1988 (with S Wadhwani).

  "The Thatcher Miracle?", American Economic Review, 79, May, 1989 (with R Layard). (Also in German Translation in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, 15, 1989.)

  "Real Wages and Unemployment in Britain during the 1930s", Economic Journal, 99, June, 1989 (with N H Dimsdale and N Horsewood).

  "The Real Wage-Employment Relationship in the United States", Journal of Labor Economics, 8, January, 1990 (with J Symons).

  "Unemployment: A Survey", Economic Journal, 100, June, 1990. (Also in A Oswald (ed), Surveys in Economics, vol 1, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1991.)

  "Insider Forces and Wage Determination", Economic Journal, 100, June, 1990 (with S Wadhwani).

  "Turnover in UK Manufacturing", Economica, August, 1990 (with S Burgess).

  "Is Unemployment Lower if Unions Bargain over Employment", Quarterly Journal of Economics, August, 1990 (with R Layard). (Also in Y Weiss and G Fishelson (eds), Advances in the Theory and Measurement of Unemployment, Macmillan, 1990.)

  "Inflation and the UK Labour Market", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 8, No 4, 1990. (Also in F Hahn (ed), The Market, Practice and Policy, Macmillan, London, 1992).

  "Unions and Investment in British Manufacturing Industry", British Journal of Industrial Relations, March, 1991 (with K Denny).

  "Employment Determination in British Industry: Investigations using Micro-Data", Review of Economic Studies, October, 1991 (with S Wadhwani).

  "Productivity Growth in UK Companies", European Economic Review, vol. 36, June, 1992 (with S Wadhwani and M Wall).

  "Unions and Investment in British Industry", Economic Journal, July, 1992 (with K Denny).

  "The Occupational Success of Young Men Who Left School at Sixteen", Oxford Economic Papers, July, 1992 (with S Connolly and J Micklewright).

  "An Investigation into the Power of Insiders in Wage Determination", European Economic Review, December, 1992 (with P Kong).

  "Cohort Size Effects on the Wages of Young Men in Britain 1961-89", British Journal of Industrial Relations, September, 1993.

  "Wages and Product Market Power", Economica, November, 1994 (with J Vainomaki and S Wadhwani).

  "The Collapse in Demand for the Unskilled and Unemployment Across the OECD", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol 11(1), 1995 (with B Bell).

  "The Distribution of Wages and Unemployment", American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), May, 1996 (with B Bell).

  "Competition and Corporate Performance", Journal of Political Economy, August, 1996.

  "What Makes Firms Perform Well?", European Economic Review, April, 1997 (with D Nicolitsas and N Dryden).

  "Wages, Restrictive Practices and Productivity", Labour Economics, August, 1997 (with D Nicolitsas).

  "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America", Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer, 1997.

  "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers", Economic Journal, 108, May, 1998.

  "Product Markets and Labour Markets", Labour Economics, March, 1999.

Other Articles, Book Chapters, etc

  "The Relationship between the Tax Structure, Financial Policy and the Rate of Investment of the Firm" in Artis, M and Nobay, R (eds) Studies in Modern Economic Analysis, (1977).

  "The Plain Man's Guide to the Out-of-Work" in Selected Evidence submitted to the Royal Commission for Report No. 6: Lower Incomes, HMSO, May, 1978 (with D Metcalf).

  "The Effect of Collective Bargaining on Wages" in Shorrocks, A and Krelle, W (eds), The Economics of Income Distribution, North Holland (1979) (with R Layard and D Metcalf).

  "The Modelling of Wages and Employment" in Hendry, D F and Wallis, K F (eds), Econometrics and Quantitative Economics, Blackwells, 1984.

  "Unemployment Insurance and Wages", The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, January, 1985.

  "Estimating the Parameters of Interest in a Job Search Model" in R Blundell and I Walker (eds), Unemployment, Search and Labour Supply, CUP, 1986 (with Wiji Narendranathan).

  "Dynamic Models of Labour Demand", Chapter 8, in Ashenfelter, O and Layard, R (eds), Handbook of Labor Economics, North Holland, 1986.

  An Incomes Policy to Help the Unemployed, Employment Institute, March 1987 (with R Layard).

  "A Historical Perspective on Unemployment: A Review Article", Journal of Political Economy, August, 1987.

  "Unemployment and the Real Wage", in Siven, C-H (ed), Unemployment in Europe, Timbro, 1987.

  "The Short-Run Behaviour of Labour Supply", in Bewley, Truman (ed), Advances in Econometrics, Fifth World Congress, CUP, 1987.

  "The Labour Market" in Dornbusch, R and Layard, R (eds), The Performance of the British Economy, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1987 (with R Layard).

  "The Supply Side and Macroeconomic Modelling", in Bryant, R C, Henderson, D W, Holtham, G, Synansky, SA (eds), Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies, Brookings, 1988.

  "Imperfect Competition and the Labour Market" in Beenstock, M (ed), Modelling the Labour Market, Chapman and Hall, 1988.

  "Wages and Economic Activity", in Eltis, W and Sinclair, P (eds), Keynes and Economic Policy, Macmillan, 1988.

  "Mrs Thatcher's Miracle?",  Economic Affairs, 10, January, 1990 (with R Layard).

  "Unemployment Revisited", Journal of Economic Studies (NAIRU Special Issue), vol. 20, No. 1/2, 1993.

  "Unemployment in OECD Countries" in T Tachibanaki (ed), Labour Market and Economic Performance, The Macmillan Press, London, 1994 (with R Layard).

  "Wages, Unemployment and Population Growth" in L Christofides, E K Grant and R Swidinsky (ed), Aspects of Labour Market Behaviour, University of Toronto Press, Toronto, 1995.

  "Can Unemployment in the UK be Reduced" in D Halpern, S Hood, S White and G Cameron (eds), Options for Britain, Dartmouth, Aldershot, 1996.

  "The Low-skill Low-pay Problem: Lessons from Germany for Britain and the US", Policy Studies, 17(1), 1996.

  "Combatting Unemployment: Is Flexibility Enough?" in Macroeconomic Policies and Structural Reform, OECD: Paris, 1996 (with R Jackman and R Layard).

  "Would Cutting Payroll Taxes on the Unskilled have a Significant Impact on Unemployment", in G de la Dehesa and D J Snower (eds), Unemployment Policy, Cambridge University Press, 1997 (with B Bell).

  "The Collapse in Demand for the Unskilled: What Can be Done?", in Richard Freemand and Peter Gottschalk (eds), Generating Jobs, Russell Sage Foundation, 1998.

  "Structural Changes and the British Labour Market", in Horst Siebert (ed), Structural Change and Labor Market Flexibility, Mohr Siebeck (1997).

  "Employment Dynamics and Labor Market Institutions", in J Gual (ed), Job Creation: The Role of Labour Market Institutions, Edward Elgar, 1998.

Other paper include numerous working papers, conference papers, published discussant's comments, notes, magazine and newspaper articles.

Teaching:

  I have presented lecture courses at some time in the following subjects (number of hours in parentheses):

Undergraduate

  Introductory Mathematical Economics (25)

  Macroeconomic Theory* (25)

  Applied Macroeconomics (10)

  Quantitative Methods for Economists* (25)

Graduate

  Methods of Economic Investigation* (40)

  Microeconomics* (20)

  Optimal Growth Theory (10)

  Control Theory (10)

  Linear Programming (10)

  Applied Econometrics* (30)

  Topics in Econometrics (10)

  Labour Economics (24)

  (* Core Courses)

PhD/DPhil.

  Supervisor in a wide range of applied topics with some 50 successfully completed doctorates, mostly under my sole supervision. Those now in university or related positions include John Moore; David Webb (LSE); Anup Shah (Newcastle); Fabio Schiantarelli (Boston College); Martin Andrews (Manchester); Wiji Narendranathan (Warwick); Lisa Lynch (Tufts: one time Chief Economist, US Department of Labor); Jaume Garcia (Barcelona); Gopa Chowdhury (Northeastern); George Alogoskoufis (Athens School of Economics); Maureen Pike (Oxford Brookes); Reija Lilja (Helsinki School of Economics); Juan Dolado (CEMFI, Madrid); Simon Burgess, Sonia Bhalotra (Bristol); Chris Gilbert (Free University, Amsterdam); Ian Preston (UCL); Annalisa Cristini (Bergamo); Steve Bond (Nuffield/IFS); Sara Connolly (East Anglia); Kevin Denny (UC Dublin); Giovanni Urga (LBS); Peter Sinclair (Birmingham); Bill Russell (Dundee); Patrizia Ordine (Calabria); Sushil Wadhwani (UK Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England); James McHugh, Andrea Richter (IMF); Tracy Jones (Vassar); Olympia Bover (Bank of Spain).

General Academic Activities:

  1973-87 Editorial Board, Review of Economic Studies

  1974-75 Assistant Editor, Review of Economic Studies

  1975-78 Joint Managing Editor, Review of Economic Studies

  1977-79 Programme Committee, Econometric Society

  1981-83 European Meetings

  1980-85 Programme Committee, Econometric Society World Congress

  1981-89 Treasury Academic Panel

  1981- Associate Editor, Economic Journal

  1983-87 Associate Editor, International Journal of Industrial Organization

  1983- Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research

  1984-98 Editor, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

  1984-94 Council, Royal Economic Society

  1984-87 Economic Affairs Committee, ESRC (vice-chairman 1985-87)

  1985-88 Founding Council Member, European Economic Association

  1985 Nsg Lecture, Austrian Economic Association

  1987-93 Council, Econometric Society

  1987-90 Research Grants Board, ESRC;

  Industry, Economics and Environment Research Development Group, ESRC

  1987 President's Lecture, Scottish Economic Association

  1988-94 Scientific Council of the Center for Economic Research, University of Tilberg, Holland

  1990-94 Chairman, Research Grants Board, ESRC; Member of Council, ESRC

  1990- Advisory Board of the Institute for International Economic Studies, University of Stockholm, Sweden

  1990- Governor of the National Institute of Social and Economic Research

  1992 Mitsui lectures, University of Birmingham

  1994- International Board of Advisers of the Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam

  1996- Labour Markets Panel, H.M. Treasury

  1998 Adam Smith Lecture, European Association of Labour Economists

  1999- Council, European Economic Association.

  External Examining: Essex, Kent, Birmingham, Warwick, Sussex, York.

Academic Consulting:

  HM Treasury; Manpower Services Commission; Department of Employment; Department of Health and Social Security; Economic and Social Research Council; Morgan Grenfell; Reserve Bank of New Zealand; OECD.