An indication of the steps taken to measure the effect of overstretch (such as, for example, divorce rates, PVR rates and other welfare and retention problems).

NAVAL SERVICE

  PVR details are held for all ranks and rates and for all branches, sub-branches and specialisations. Application and exit rates are recorded together with withdrawal rates as there is a link between all three. These details are both annualised rolling averages and actual monthly figures. Although the Naval Service has global threshold PVR levels of 2 per cent for officers and 5 per cent for ratings and Royal Marines Other Ranks, actual exit rates vary with length of service, rank/rate and branch. Further detail is available. Clearly PVR rates in branches which are under-borne are of most concern and this is something the branch managers monitor closely so that action can be taken to pre-empt deterioration.

  The Naval Service runs various surveys and a Personnel Liaison Team to provide feedback on personnel issues. The notice giving and PVR surveys are targeted at those personnel who have applied to leave the Service and provide useful data to combat retention negative problems.

  The Royal Navy is also studying stress which may help understand any linkage with overstretch, though the causes of stress will run wider than just overstretch.

  The Navy Performance Plan is progressing towards identifying key elements of personal satisfaction, including such statistics as divorce rates, in an endeavour to inform better management action. It is not yet possible to capture divorce rates statistics from the computer software currently available, although this is being progressed by the Naval Personal and Families Service, which is very aware of the importance of such information and is currently investigating a possible means of obtaining it.

ARMY

  The effect that overstretch has on Army personnel differs from one individual to another and, consequently, it is difficult to measure accurately across the Service as a whole. The Army operates a system of Continuous Attitude Surveys (CAS), sent quarterly to serving personnel, spouses, and to those leaving the Service which is very helpful in identifying attitudes towards, and satisfaction with, a wide variety of subject areas concerned with life in the Army. The results of the most recent CAS Leavers Survey indicate that "Workload" is rated the fifth most important factor in their decision to leave (out of the 20 main areas examined), which is in contrast to data from the CAS sent to serving personnel which indicates that satisfaction with the workload is generally high across the Service. The "Effect of the Army on Personal and Family Life" remains the area of greatest concern for soldiers.

  As part of the 1998-99 Army Human Resources Action Plan, Land Command are developing a methodology for measuring commitment levels using a "Nights Out of Bed" system. A pilot scheme has been conducted within one (UK) Armd Division, which will inform the IT system which is currently under development. It is proposed to introduce this revised system Command-wide from 1 November 1999, and Army-wide from 1 April 2000. In tandem, work is also in hand to establish appropriate targets against which to compare actual Nights Out of Bed as well as a common mechanism for representing levels of "Harmony" or "Separated Service".

RAF

  The separation of overstretch from other factors in determining causes for leaving prematurely or declining the opportunity to extend service is notoriously difficult given that personnel leave the RAF for a variety of reasons.

  The RAF is collecting information for use in analysing possible links between levels of separated service and the incidence of applications for premature voluntary release (PVR), divorce rates, etc. In addition to monitoring PVR rates, this includes data collected via the RAF's Continuous General Attitude Survey (CGAS) and the tri-Service Survey of Working Patterns. To ensure that such surveys are tailored to address relevant issues, the RAF established a Personnel Policy Research and Evaluation Committee in January 1999, one task of which is to ensure that all personnel surveys are regularly reviewed. An immediate consequence has been an amendment to the CGAS questionnaire for its next administration in November 1999 so that it captures better the impact of overstretch. By definition, trends are revealed by attitude surveys only over time and the revised CGAS questions are unlikely to produce meaningful information before April 2001. Together with the ever-growing data from the Separated Service Recording System introduced in 1997, the RAF have therefore set in place systems that will allow the RAF to better measure the effects of overstretch and to manage them.

  Notwithstanding the above, annual PVR application rates for ground trades personnel have steadily risen from a low of around 1.5 per cent in 1993 to the current rate of some 5 per cent of trained strength where they appear to have plateaued. The historical average taken over the last 15 years is about 5 per cent. Within these overall rates, however, some trades have significantly higher than average PVR application rates (see table below). The higher rates are considered to be the result of the "pull" of the external economy (where the trade skills are in demand) combined with various "push" factors including high operational tempo, separation and overstretch. Out of Area deployments exacerbate the strain on domestic life. There is evidence that partner's careers, children's education, the desire for domestic stability and home ownership, and lack of Service medical and dental support for families all play a part in an individual decision on whether to leave the Service.

  Details of Trades with significantly higher than average annual PVR application rates are:

  For officers, the most significant indicator currently appears to be the high numbers leaving at option points rather than PVR rates. For example, the percentage of pilots choosing to stay beyond their optional retirement point (age 38 or 16 years' service) is the lowest for 20 years. This also points to the effects of family pressure to seek greater stability, quality of life and opportunities to provide career opportunities for spouses.

November 1999