1. INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

1.1 Introduction

  Inter-Capital and Regional Rail Ltd welcomes the opportunity to submit background evidence to the Transport Sub-Committee on the provision of Eurostar services north of London, the viability of which it has been reviewing for the Deputy Prime Minister. This paper outlines the present situation, the operational issues involved, describes the characteristics of the market and the approach adopted in the study. The conclusions of the analysis have now been submitted in confidence to the Deputy Prime Minister, and it is understood that he intends to communicate these to the House before the end of the year.

1.2 Definitions

  Eurostar Train Sets are high speed International trains built to operate between the UK and mainland Europe through the Channel Tunnel; they comprise Regional Train Sets (which were designed and built to be capable of operating beyond London) and Intercapital Train Sets (which are not generally capable of operating beyond London). Eurostar train sets were planned and procured by the British Railways Board (BRB) prior to the establishment of London & Continental Railways.

  Regional Eurostar services (which do not currently operate) refer to any services which may in future link Paris/Brussels with destinations beyond London; Intercapital services currently operate between London and Paris, and London and Brussels.

  London & Continental Railways Ltd., (LCR) is the private grouping of eight companies which in 1996 won the concession to operate Eurostar and finance, build and operate the Channel Tunnel Rail Link (CTRL).

  Eurostar UK Ltd., (EUKL) is a subsidiary of LCR which together with the national railways of France (SNCF) and Belgium (SNCB) forms an international grouping under EU Regulation 91/440 to operate the Eurostar train services.

  Inter-Capital and Regional rail Ltd. (ICRR) is the company comprising the Consortium of National Express Group, SNCF, SNCB and British Airways, which as been awarded the contract to manage the EUKL business until 2010 by LCR.

  Railtrack is the UK infratructure provider for the current Eurostar operation in Great Britain and has agreed access rights with EUKL for the Regional Eurostar services originally proposed on East Coast Main Line (ECML) to Newcastle. Edinburgh and Glasgow and on West Coast Main Line (WCML) to the West Midlands, and the North West. It has also agreed with the Government to purchase and operate the first phase of the CTRL, and to plan the second phase, including links to ECML and WCML. Through the Channel Tunnel, infrastructure is provided by Eurotunnel, in France by a public corporation, Réseau Ferré de France (RFF), and in Belgium by SNCB.

1.3 Background

  On 3 June 1998, in a statement to the House on CTRL, the Deputy Prime Minister announced that LCR had selected the Consortium (now ICRR) to manage the EUKL business. In the statement he referred to the vision of the Consortium for Heathrow "as a gateway to Europe for services from across the country." He also referred to the opportunity to "establish Heathrow airport as an integrated transport interchange of international importance, connecting long-haul air services directly to the European high-speed rail network."

  At the same time, he assured the House "that LCR remains under an obligation to provide the infrastructure for Regional Eurostar services," and section 2, below describes the limited work needed to achieve this. He made clear that he had asked the Consortium to review urgently the feasibility of Eurostar services to regions beyond London and to report by the end of the year. Following subsequent discussions, the Consortium agreed to bring the report forward to an earlier date and it has now been submitted to the Deputy Prime Minister.

  In its Twelfth report on the Departmental Annual Report for 1998, published, on 17 August 1998, the Committee expressed criticism that leases for rolling stock for European night services were guaranteed without a proper examination of the risk that the service might never operate. The report notes "Eurostar had since concluded that there was no prospect of such services being operated profitably," and that the leases had been terminated; the rolling stock has subsequently been returned to the manufacturer. In contrast, a number of potential uses have been identified for the Regional Eurostar sets, should they not be deployed on the services for which they were originally intended, and these are described in section 4 below.

1.4 The Objectives of the ICRR

  ICRR has entered into a contract with LCR to manage the EUKL business until 2010 which covers the management of all EUKL assets and rolling stock including the Regional Eurostar train sets.

  ICRR has the obligation as well as the financial incentive under the contract, to maximise the cash flow contribution from Eurostar services and therefore minimise the requirement for funding from LCR.

  All important decision, including the operation of new services, have to be made by agreement between EUKL, SNCF and SNCB. For EUKL, such decisions would require the approval of LCR and could only be proposed by ICRR and approved by LCR if both were satisfied that this was the best means of maximising the cash flow contribution from Eurostar services.

  In preparing for taking over the management of the EUKL business, the ICRR has focused on the Intercapital services which have significant potential for growth, but which are currently unprofitable. The loss on Intercapital services last year was £150 million, but they are expected to generate a positive cash flow from 2005 onwards. Forecasts made in 1989 predicted passenger traffic through the Channel Tunnel at 13-16 million in 1993, whilst actual traffic in 1998 is now forecast to be 6-7 million. The Deputy Prime Minister in his statement to the House on 3 June, 1998 described the original forecasts as "over optimistic."

  In parallel with this review of Regional Eurostar services, ICRR is also investigating the viability and potential for Heathrow-Paris services, as a means of extending Eurostar services, improving Eurostar's cash flow and increasing the role of Heathrow as an integrated transport hub. (See paragraph 4.1 below).

  ICRR, in conjunction with EUKL, is also assessing the viability of direct services from Watford-Paris which would use Watford as a hub for connecting services from Scotland, the North West, North Wales and the Midlands. (See paragraph 4.2 below).

1.5 The Objectives of the Study

  The study objectives, agreed with DETR were to:

—  Present a fact-based assessment on the viability of alternative Regional Eurostar Services.

—  Consider market potential, as opposed to validating a supply-driven concept.

—  Test economic performance of alternative regional services, in the light of expected performance improvements under the Consortium's leadership.

—  Evaluate third party proposals (including Virgin Group's) and determine whether they can be accommodated within the structure of the CTRL rescue package announced on 3 June by the Deputy Prime Minister.

—  Report to the Deputy Prime Minister.

  The evaluation of Regional Eurostar services has been carried out on the basis of assessing the commercial viability for the Eurostar business as a whole, and does not include any social cost/benefit assessment of the options, nor any assessment of the effect of the services on economic development or regeneration in the Regions served.

1.6 The Approach to the Study

  The assessment of the viability of Regional Eurostar services was undertaken by independent consultants, Mercer Management Consulting Ltd. Mercer has extensive experience of UK rail economics. It also undertook the economic assessment of the Intercapital services for ICRR and is evaluating a possible Heathrow service.

  The review looked at the incremental costs and revenue of adding Regional Eurostar services to the existing Intercapital services between London, Paris and Brussels. The review thus evaluated the options on the basis of the most favourable economic circumstances by assuming zero cost for Regional Eurostar train sets and for track access north and south of London and usage of the Tunnel, all of which are covered by bulk or minimum use agreements for all Eurostar services. It also takes advantage of integration with the existing Intercapital services in respect of operating costs, management overheads and marketing. Track access rights north of London and the regional train sets themselves have a potential opportunity cost for EUKL. With the consent of the Secretary of State, paths north of London could be "sold" back to Railtrack, and the train sets could be leased to third party operators on domestic routes if Regional Eurostar services are not operated.

2 THE CURRENT POSITION

2.1 Trains

  Seven 14-car Regional Eurostar train sets were procured by BRB in 1991 at a cost of £180 million to provide services beyond London, and were delivered during 1995-96. They are shorter than the 18-car Intercapital trains and have other technical differences allowing them to run north of London. The trains are extremely complex, with the capability to operate with four different electrical supply systems and four different signalling systems. An extended programme of commissioning and testing has been undertaken which has revealed evidence of electronic interference with signalling equipment induced by the new trains, and modifications have been required to prevent this.

  The trains are designed as two seven-car articulated half-sets for ease of maintenance, and therefore could be re-formed permanently as 14 shorter trains in order to increase the number of sets available and therefore the frequency of Regional Eurostar services. Channel Tunnel safety requirements mean that a power car must be provided at either end of the train and a driver's cab is required at each end to allow the trains to be driven in either direction. Fourteen additional power cars with driving cabs would therefore need to be provided at a cost of £70 million and would take two to three years to design, build and test.

  The train sets were specially built for the Regional Eurostar services, and in the UK their use would, in practical terms, be limited to the ECML and WCML.

  Two of the seven Regional Eurostar sets are currently available for service, while three further sets could be made available for traffic relatively quickly. The remaining two require several months' work to replace components and to bring them back up to standard for passenger use after being stored for several months. The cost of improving the regional sets has already been provided for by EUKL. All seven could be made available by the second half of 1999.

2.2 Infrastructure

  Eurostar Intercapital trains currently operate from Waterloo International to Paris and Brussels. Links between the rail networks south and north of the Thames are limited, and to reach destinations beyond London, Regional Eurostar trains would have to use the West London Line. This runs via Kensington Olympia and provides direct access to the WCML and, via the North London Line to the ECML: these two connecting routes have already been upgraded and electrified for Regional Eurostar services. Access to Heathrow would require use of a short existing connecting line from Willesden Junction to Acton, where trains would join the main line from Paddington to Heathrow.

  The programme of rolling stock testing referred to in 2.1 above is close to completion on WCML, and services on the WCML could start in 1999. On the ECML, testing has been completed only over 100 miles of the 450 mile route between London and Glasgow, and further work is required to secure the required Railway Safety Case, particularly north of York. Together with work required at stations, this would mean that services to the North East and Scotland could not start until 2000.

  Infrastructure and rolling stock modifications required for operation to Heathrow mean that the earliest practicable starting date for this service is 2001-02.

2.3 Train Paths

  Train paths on the rail network have already been negotiated with Railtrack for services north of London and with Railtrack and Eurotunnel between London and Calais. The timetable shown in Appendix One is based on these paths and is based on the train service plan proposed by BRB when the Regional Eurostar sets were procured. Additional or changed paths would require negotiation with Railtrack and Eurotunnel.

  In France, paths for Regional Eurostar services were reserved, but with the delayed introduction of Regional Eurostar services, some paths have been reallocated to other services, such as that between Waterloo International and Marne-la-Vallée (for Eurodisney). Whilst capacity still exists on the high speed line between Lille and Paris, one of the busiest high speed lines in France carrying trains to Brussels, Amsterdam, Cologne and North East France, paths would now have to be re-established with RFF.

2.4 Stations

  Regional Eurostar services would serve 18 stations north of London. Agreement of access rights and development of stations on the West Coast Main Line has largely been completed, whereas the majority of stations on the East Coast Main Line require some minor alternations prior to running a Eurostar service, particularly north of Doncaster.

2.5 Security, customs and immigration

  The regime for security, customs clearance and immigration for Regional Eurostar services has largely been agreed between EUKL and the relevant authorities. The principal change before Regional Eurostar services can start running is the extension to Kensington Olympia of the "international corridor" which is currently established between the Channel Tunnel and Waterloo. This would allow Kensington Olympia to be treated as the point of entry to the UK, with immigration controls carried out on the train and customs clearance on arrival at Kensington Olympia.

3. THE REGIONAL EUROSTAR MARKET

3.1 Alternative Services from the UK Regions

  Connecting services using high speed trains were introduced in May 1995 connecting to Intercapital Eurostar services at Waterloo. One service each way was operated on WCML and one on ECML. The services were available only to international passengers connecting at Waterloo, with through tickets at low add-on fares (£10-£20 return). Despite this, only some 30 to 40 passengers travelled each way daily on the East and West Coast services respectively, equivalent to a load factor of 8-10 per cent. Services ceased in January 1997.

  Looking at other modes, there are relatively few examples of through services being offered to Paris, from regions beyond London. Many regional airports offer services to Paris, but involving interchange at the Eurohub at Birmingham International Airport, although Manchester and Edinburgh have direct flights. Similarly, the Eurolines consortium offers scheduled coach services between regional originating points, Paris and Brussels, but a change of vehicle is required at Victoria Coach Station. In the case of both air and coach, demand is not sufficient to justify direct services.

3.2 The Market for Regional Eurostar

  Within the total Cross-Channel market in 1996, there were 7.4 million single trips between the regions of Great Britain and Paris, North East France and Belgium—the area that could be served by Regional Eurostar. This comprises primarily leisure travellers resident in the UK with widely spread originating points. It is not dominated by any one mode, as shown below:

TABLE 1
Regional Market by mode
Mode	1996 single trips (millions)
Car	2.4
Coach	2.2
Air	1.7
Rail1	0.7
Other	0.4
Total	7.4
1 Via Intercapital Eurostar.

  However, rail is not competitive for many of these journeys, only a small proportion of which are likely to be attracted to Regional Eurostar services. In particular, Regional Eurostar is less competitive where:

—  Journey time, frequency or fares are unattractive (see 3.3-3.5 below).

—  Arrival times in Paris may not meet the requirements of business travellers, or allow business trips to be completed the same day, as is possible by air.

—  Coach is being used for local shopping or sightseeing trips at the destination.

—  Car offers a lower cost for families or groups, and is convenient for local trips at the destination as well as for carrying luggage.

—  Travellers live outside the catchment area of Regional Eurostar.

3.3 Regional Services-Journey Times

  The market assessment undertaken was based on the International Passenger Survey and the Civil Aviation Authority survey. The combined database provides detailed information on trips between origins in the UK and destinations in western continental Europe and is based on the latest survey, 1996, updated to reflect 1997 Intercapital figures.

  Regional Eurostar's share of the regional market would be dependent on its competitive position against other modes (rail, air, coach or car) on journey times, frequency and fares which are the main criteria passengers typically use to decide on their mode of transport. As shown in Table 2, Regional Eurostar services are relatively uncompetitive with air on both journey time and frequencies (Table 3), and with coach on fares (Table 4). A full comparison of journey times and frequencies is set out in Appendix Two.

  Some comparative journey times are shown below:

TABLE 2
Sample Journey Times
To Paris from	Air	Regional Eurostar1	Rail (via London)2	Coach3
Birmingham	1 hr 13 mins	4 hrs 58 mins	5 hrs 1 min	13 hrs 0 min
Manchester	1 hr 20 mins	6 hrs 47 mins	5 hrs 55 min	16 hrs 55 min
Glasgow	2 hr 48 mins	9 hrs 23 mins	8 hrs 52 mins	18 hrs 15 mins
1 Journey times would be reduced by 20 minutes on completion of CTRL 1 and between 45 and 60 minutes on completion of CTRL 2. 2 Rail feeder to London, cross-London connection and Eurostar from Waterloo. 3 Coach journey times include a change at Victoria Coach station in London.

  Between London and Paris journey times by rail and air are broadly similar, and rail is competitive from points within the London area to Paris. Beyond London, the journey time differential between rail and air grows, and from Glasgow, for example, rail takes approximately three times as long as air.

3.4 Regional Services—Frequency

  With a lower population density north of London and less competitive journey times, projected levels of demand are unlikely to be able to support as high a frequency of service as that available on the Intercapital services from Waterloo International, as a result, the frequency of Regional Eurostar services is likely to be much lower than existing rail, air and coach services. Table 3 compares frequencies of the different modes for serving the Regions; Eurostar frequencies are based on the original BRB proposal.

TABLE 3
Number of services per day (each way)
To Paris, from	Air	Rail (via London)1	BR Proposed Regional Eurostar	Coach2
Birmingham	10	14	3	9
Manchester	9	13	2	5
Glasgow	7	7	1	2
1 Rail frequencies via London are constrained by Intercapital frequency and departure times. 2 Scheduled plus package services. All services require a change at Victoria Coach Station.

3.5 Regional Services—Fares

  The potential earnings of Regional Eurostar services are constrained by this weak market position. Whilst existing Intercapital Eurostar tickets are priced in line with similar air tickets, with a strong business travel element, Regional Eurostar services would not have the frequency or journey time advantage to do this, and fares would have to be pitched closer to coach, with a high proportion of leisure travellers travelling at reduced fares.

  Longer journey times and lower frequencies also affect the level of fares that can be charged. Current Eurostar fares from the Regions (i.e., for rail to London and Eurostar Intercapital service to Paris) are 10-20 per cent below equivalent air fares. At the same time, Eurostar is not competitive with low-price coach fares. As Table 4 shows, coach fares are 20-50 per cent of Eurostar fares.

TABLE 4
Comparative Return Fares
Example: Birmingham-Paris
	Business	Economy
	£	Fully Flexible £	Restricted £
Air	465	348	130
Rail	407	292	106
Coach	—	59	—

  Against this background, it is clear that Regional Eurostar is likely to gain only part of the potential market due to its uncompetitive position.

3.6 Effect of Channel Tunnel Rail Link (Phases 1 and 2)

  The completion of the first phase of CTRL would reduce the journey time of Regional Eurostar services by some 20 minutes, but would have no other effect on the route they followed across London. Completion of Phase Two of CTRL (CTRL2) would provide a further time saving of some 15 minutes to London but would have a rather greater effect for Regional Eurostar services. The time savings on completion of CTRL2 are expected to be of the order of 45 minutes to and from the WCML and 60 minutes for the ECML.

  This would have a significant effect on demand for Regional Eurostar services, and their financial performance.

3.7 Other Approaches to the Regional Market

  Through Regional Eurostar services are not the only way of improving access from the UK regions to Europe. Feeder services form the Regions to Waterloo connecting with regular Intercapital Eurostar services, would provide an easier interchange and avoid the cross-London connection for passengers. However, the services would suffer from long journey times and low frequency, and would not be competitive with existing rail services, as demonstrated by the earlier experiment detailed in 3.1 above.

  Feeder services to Heathrow would involve similar problems in terms of journey time and frequency as the Waterloo feeder services and would be constrained by limited capacity at the current Heathrow stations for connecting services.

  As described in section 4.2, feeder services to Watford Junction for WCML passengers could connect with a Watford-Paris Eurostar services. Services on the route from the West Midlands and the North West are frequent (over 20 a day from Manchester, 33 from Birmingham). They are also fast, with further speed improvements planned with the WCML line upgrade and tilting trains. Interchange at Watford would be straightforward, would avoid crossing London and could provide high quality facilities for connecting passengers.

  Improvements in cross-London connections for existing rail services is an area which is already under review by the management of Eurostar. Discussions have started with GNER over a dedicated coach link between Kings Cross and Waterloo which would provide regional passengers with a seamless transfer with Eurostar Intercapital services. Similar connections could be provided from Euston, Paddington or Liverpool Street

3.8 Domestic Passengers

  The economics of Regional Eurostar services might be improved if they were able to carry domestic as well as international passengers, filling capacity that would otherwise be empty. There are two impediments to carrying domestic passengers on Regional Eurostar trains:

—  The cost of security clearance of passengers joining the southbound services prior to reaching the final stop before the Channel Tunnel, and the practical difficulty of doing this where domestic and international passengers are carried together.

—  The constraint of "moderation of competition" introduced to protect franchise operators, which in the case of Virgin Trains' West Coast franchise operates until 2015.

  Initial analysis revealed that the potential of domestic revenue was limited. Since Regional Eurostar services have more stops, they are inevitably slower than the domestic services. For some passengers, Kensington is a more attractive destination then Euston or Kings Cross, and could prove attractive to gain leisure passengers wishing to come to London (e.g., Earls Court/Olympia). It is estimated that such opportunities would result in domestic revenue of only some £1.5-3.5 million a year being earned by Regional Eurostar services. This figure would be diluted following the introduction of higher speed tilting trains on WCML.

4. OTHER POTENTIAL USES FOR REGIONAL EUROSTAR SETS

4.1 Heathrow—Paris Services

  ICRR is also investigating the viability and potential of Heathrow Eurostar services to Paris, which are likely to overlap with Regional Eurostar services in terms of market, operations and use of assets. The objective would be to establish Heathrow airport as an integrated transport interchange of international importance, connecting long-haul services directly to the European high-speed rail network.

  In serving Heathrow airport, a number of new markets would be served:

—  passengers connecting from regional air routes, particularly from airports which do not have regular, scheduled direct flights to Paris, such as Glasgow.

—  passengers connecting from long-haul flights, providing a high quality link to Lille, Paris and Brussels as an alternative to air;

—  passengers from West London, Surrey and Berkshire who have good access by public transport or car to Heathrow.

  Such a service would complement the Intercapital service from Central London and help to take pressure off the busy air corridor between Heathrow, Paris and Brussels.

  Work to date suggests that the service could be financially attractive, but also would require considerable investment. Conclusions on the justification for such investment should be available in January 1999. If launched, the services would fully utilise the seven regional train sets.

4.2 Combining Regional and London Area Demand

  As indicated in section 3 above, Eurostar services are more competitive from the London area than from regions further north, and the Intercapital service has secured a 60 per cent market share between London and Paris. Many passengers however, find access to airports in the London area easier than to Waterloo or Ashford International stations. Both Watford Junction and Kensington Olympia are well located for large parts of London and south east England and Eurostar services from these two stations would be relatively attractive in terms of journey time compared with existing rail and air services. On this basis, ICRR is conducting a review of the potential of Eurostar to attract travellers from the M25 belt to a Watford-Paris Eurostar service.

  Services from Watford and Kensington would be quicker for about 40 per cent of existing Eurostar Intercapital business passengers and 25 per cent of leisure passengers. Overall, about 30 per cent of current air passengers might be attracted to such a service.

  If Regional Eurostar trains were to serve Kensington, the development of facilities for 1-2 million passengers a year would be required, particularly better passenger amenities and capacity to provide security checks prior to departure of trains. There is only one platform at Kensington that can accommodate Eurostar trains, and this is also used by frequent domestic services operated by Silverlink, Connex and Virgin.

  Investment in passenger facilities and security checking equipment would be required if Eurostar services were to start and terminate at Watford with the transfer of significant numbers of passengers from regional feeder services.

  The review has considered both the regional market, referred to in section 3 above and the London area market, together with the costs involved in serving Watford and Kensington.

4.3 Other uses

  If Regional Eurostar services were not able to fulfil the terms of the contract with LCR described in 1.4 by maximising cash flow for EUKL other options for the use of the Regional sets would need to be considered. Apart from those considered in 4.1 and 4.2 above, the options include:

(1)  Leasing of the Regional assets to a domestic train operating company (e.g., Virgin or GNER).

(2)  Leasing of the Regional assets to an international train operating company.

(3)  Sale of the Regional rolling stock to the highest bidder.

(4)  Deploying the regional sets on the London-Brussels Intercapital service to allow Intercapital sets to be used more productively on other services.

5. SUMMARY

  1. ICRR has an obligation and a financial incentive under its contract with LCR to maximise the cash flow related to the Eurostar business (which is currently losing £150 million per year).

  2. Experience with Eurostar Intercapital services has shown that initial forecasts were highly optimistic; current passenger volumes are 6m-7m per anum, compared with an original forecast of 13-16m for 1993.

  3. An earlier experiment in 1995-97 with fast regional services using non-Eurostar rolling stock but connecting with Eurostar at Waterloo failed to attract sufficient demand to justify its retention.

  4. The benefits for the majority of potential regional travellers on direct Regional Eurostar services are relatively low. Journey times are significantly worse than air and in some cases are worse than existing rail services via Waterloo. The frequency is likely to be much lower than both air and existing rail services because of low and dispersed demand.

  5. No significant operational or technical constraints exist that would prevent Regional Eurostar services commencing in late 1999 on the WCML and 2000 on the ECML.

  6. For a Regional Eurostar service to be launched, approval will have to be obtained form LCR, SNCF and SNCB.

  7. Completion of CTRL2 will cut up to 60 minutes from the schedule of Regional Eurostar services and is likely to increase levels of demand significantly.

  8. Carrying domestic passengers is constrained by security/immigration considerations and by regulatory protection for existing domestic rail operators.

  9. Evaluation of a Heathrow Eurostar service is continuing, and a Watford service is being considered, both of which could provide good access from regions served by WCML via domestic feeder services to Watford.

  10. Passengers on scheduled regional services by air and coach to Paris are generally required to change at Birmingham's Eurohub or at Victoria coach station.

20 November 1998

Appendix One: BRB Proposed Regional Services
Outbound				Inbound
West Coast
Manchester	06.12	09.27		Paris Nord	08.43	16.22	17.43
Stockport	06.22	09.38		Lille		17.23
Crewe	06.49	10.06		Milton Keynes	11.29	19.32	20.26
Stafford	07.11	10.28		Rugby	11.52		20.53
Wolverhampton	07.29			Coventry	12.11		21.10
Birmingham New Street	07.55		14.26	Birmingham International	12.25		21.29
Birmingham International	08.07		14.58	Birmingham New Street	12.56		21.46
Coventry	08.18		15.12	Wolverhampton			22.06
Rugby	08.34		15.30	Stafford		20.34	22.31
Milton Keynes	08.58	11.32	15.54	Crewe		21.20	23.00
Lille		15.26		Stockport		21.55	23.29
Paris Nord	13.59	16.29	20.56	Manchester		22.08	23.40
East Coast
Glasgow	07.30			Paris Nord	13.07
Edinburgh	08.30			Lille	14.09
Newcastle	09.55			Peterborough	16.37
Darlington	10.23			Newark	17.12
York	10.56			Doncaster	17.36
Doncaster	11.20			York	18.00
Newark	11.46			Darlington	18.31
Peterborough	12.12			Newcastle	19.02
Lille	16.51			Edinburgh	20.29
Paris Nord	17.53			Glasgow	21.30
Notes: Local times Birmingham-Paris service taken from revised EUKL proposal.

Appendix Two: Comparison of Journey Times/Frequency
On-board journey time to Paris					Frequency (one direction)
	Regional Eurostar	Existing rail3	Air	Regional Eurostar	Existing Rail Frequency to London2	Air
Glasgow	9.23	8.52	2.48	1	14	7
Newcastle	6.58	6.40	2.21	1	32	4
York	5.58	5.25	1.20	1	32	3
Peterborough	4.41	4.02	1.15	1	64	31
Manchester	6.47	5.55	1.20	2	20	9
Birmgingham	4.58	5.01	1.13	2	33	10
Milton Keynes	4.01	4.14	1.05	3	44	3
Notes: 1 Peterborough air frequency only includes Luton airprot. Stansted may also be accessed from Peterborough (further four flights). 2 London-Paris frequency: 20 services per day. 3 Includes access across London but excludes any interchange penalty. Source: OAG. Virgin, Autoroute, Eurostar, LEK estimates.