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Mr. Robert Syms (Poole): I support the amendment and my hon. Friend the Member for West Dorset (Mr. Letwin). These are important matters that cause great concern in Dorset.
My hon. Friend was right to say that it is unlikely that any responsible party represented in the House would adopt the suggested tactics, but that does not mean that it will never happen. The Bill gives us an opportunity to close a loophole that somebody, some day, may exploit. As we heard from the right hon. Member for Berwick-upon-Tweed (Mr. Beith), when Jim Callaghan introduced descriptions of political candidates, he assured the House that it would not be abused, but it has been. One of the good things about the Bill is that it closes that loophole, which at some stage has affected all parties. I am sure that some of the practices outlined by the hon. Member for Poplar and Canning Town (Mr. Fitzpatrick) would be outlawed under the Bill.
There is a real problem, because under the additional member system there is both first past the post and the list. The logic of the system is that the list should balance and give a degree of proportionality to the choice. Any attempt to distort the proportionality within AMS would undermine it. My hon. Friend the Member for West Dorset was right to say that there needs to be only one distorted election and everyone will be outraged and the law will no doubt be changed, but a lot of damage could be done on that one occasion.
The key point is that the system depends on the predictability of the first-past-the-post element in AMS. People can try to distort the list side only when they take a view about the number of first-past-the-post seats they will win. Scotland and Wales have been mentioned because parliamentary constituency boundaries are being used. It is therefore possible, in advance of all elections, to take a reasonable bet--given opinion polls--about who is likely to win, for example, the 73 first-past-the-post seats in Scotland. When one takes a view on that, one can decide whether to try to distort the proportionality in the list.
A party that believes that it may take a majority of the first-past-the-post seats, but will have little dividend from proportionality in the list, may be tempted to have an alter ego party to try to give it a few extra seats. Given that AMS is less likely to lead to one party having an overall majority, there is a great temptation for a party that thinks it may affect a few seats one way or the other to try to distort the list.
A party that is dismal and deadly and does not win any first-past-the-post seats--which, in the context of the last general election, may well be my party--will rely on the list to reward it, as that is the logic of the system. There may be a temptation to distort that by reducing the chances of that party getting its fair degree of proportionality within the system.
That does not happen in the federal elections in Germany, but there are occasions with lander elections when a party takes a view about first-past-the-post seats and state parties--which are often groups of Christian Democrat business men who make it perfectly clear which party they would support--try to take more than 5 per cent. of the vote so that they get some representation in Hamburg or Lower Saxony.
We are raising an important issue for debate. The point of registration of political parties is to try to clear up politics. That is necessary simply because we have introduced AMS. My hon. Friends have tried to point out that it is possible to try to skewer the result on a list one way or the other by an alter ego party.
In debates on devolution, my right hon. Friend the Member for Devizes (Mr. Ancram) has mentioned that one or two academic journals north of the border have started to publish articles about the new system and how it can be affected. People do not yet understand the full implications of the system. The Scottish newspapers and System 3 often get how the seats would be allocated quite wrong because they do not quite understand how the system works. In quaint academic circles, people are starting to look at how the system can be skewered.
All we are suggesting is that this matter deserves consideration. It has to happen only once, and to skewer two or three seats one way or the other, to affect the control of an assembly or a parliament, which could have a material impact on the body politic. We do not know what the Jenkins commission will come up with. I and many of my hon. Friends--indeed, colleagues on both sides of the House--will be campaigning strongly against whatever the Jenkins commission comes up with when the referendum comes along. However, the reality is that AMS is a strong possibility, as is some system with a list and some degree of first past the post. Even if that does not become a temptation in Scotland and Wales, it may start to become one for Westminster.
We raise the issues because there are real concerns that there may be some distortion. How much distortion depends on the predictability of the result under first past the post. If all the boundaries have been redrawn, we have to some extent thrown all the cards into the air, but we can predict which way a good many of the seats in Scotland and Wales will go, and that will have an impact on the proportional element in the system.
I make those points in support of my hon. Friend the Member for West Dorset. I am sorry that I missed some of the Committee stage. I was on Select Committee business, and I am devastated that I have not taken part in the debates.
Mr. George Howarth:
I feel privileged to have witnessed this debate tonight. I do not wish to cause strife between us, but the hon. Member for West Dorset (Mr. Letwin) put forward one of the most elegant arguments I have ever witnessed in the House. In a fifteen-minute speech, he managed to convince himself that he was wrong. However, the hon. Member for Poole (Mr. Syms) was not convinced by his argument.
The debate was interesting, not least because the hon. Member for Galloway and Upper Nithsdale (Mr. Morgan) managed to reassure the hon. Member for West Dorset. The hon. Member for West Dorset indicates that he is moving in that direction, at least, and the problem that he described in great detail--which was elaborated on by the hon. Member for Poole--is most unlikely. The only pity is that, to complete the pacification of the hon. Member for West Dorset, there was not a representative of Plaid Cymru here. If there had been, we could all have gone home 20 minutes ago. I accept that the hon. Gentleman
does not intend to move the matter further at this stage, and he has reserved the right to return to it in different contexts on different occasions.
The Bill seeks to address the situation described by hon. Friend the Member for Poplar and Canning Town (Mr. Fitzpatrick) in his constituency in local government elections. I envisage that it will deal with that problem. In the local government elections in May, candidates in my constituency described themselves variously as real Labour and new Labour. Previously, they have described themselves as Labour and, in the literature, "(Ind)" is added in small print to show that they are somehow independent of the Labour party. On one occasion, a candidate, who was subsequently arrested, stood as a Labour Green Liberal candidate--presumably on the basis that one can have a peripatetic approach to political ideology. Once, she succeeded in getting elected but, unfortunately, her appearance in court prevented her from standing subsequently.
I use those examples merely to illustrate that there are problems in the system, but as the hon. Member for West Dorset has managed to reassure himself, there is little that I need to add on the subject.
Mr. Letwin:
I am impressed by the Minister's discovering a title for new Labour that has so much more resonance. Labour Green Liberal seems to summon up almost every aspect of the current Government. I am minded to refer the matter to my right hon. Friend the Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition for immediate retail.
I must admit that I had not expected the debate, late as it is, to be very much use. Charming though the Minister was throughout the Committee stage, he showed no sign of weakening in the face of argument, and I had not expected any willingness on his part to accept the amendment.
However, I was unaware that a formidable representative of the Scottish National party would be present. Still less did I imagine that he would make utterances that may or may not quite constitute the assurances that we sought, but which are certainly helpful. If the debate has produced that result it may have affected the course, in a very slight way, of British history, and for that I am duly grateful to the hon. Gentleman, who has certainly contributed more to the enlightenment of the House than I managed to do in the considerable discussion of the Bill in Committee.
I beg to ask leave to withdraw the amendment.
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