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Mr. Mike Gapes (Ilford, South): Will the hon. Gentleman give way?
Mr. Jones: I am sorry but, because of time, I will not be able to give way.
I alluded to the UK's presidency of the European Union, to which the hon. Member for Mid-Sussex (Mr. Soames) referred in detail. I am very concerned too. One of the main criticisms of the common foreign and security pillar of the Maastricht treaty related to its intergovernmental nature and the problems that that would cause. It was virtually impossible, for example, to secure a consistent and coherent European foreign and security policy. That was starkly demonstrated during the war in
Bosnia, when individual member states began recognising constituent parts of former Yugoslavia rather prematurely. The lack of a clear EU line in those circumstances was one of the reasons why the Serbs felt able to flout international opinion for so long. I fear that the EU again missed a golden opportunity to address that issue in the Amsterdam treaty. There is still no formal mechanism for adopting a common European position on Iraq.
That leads to the rather ludicrous position of the EU president being prepared to act in a way which is not sanctioned by the majority of member states. That is a matter of current concern, and will cause increasing concern unless it is addressed. I would like the EU to be given a much more prominent role in foreign affairs and security matters. Our experiences teach us that European treaties should be revisited.
Like all hon. Members, I would like the diplomatic initiatives pursued by the United Nations Secretary- General, Kofi Annan, to be fully supported by the Government. My party differs from the Government not on the question of the willingness to pursue diplomatic initiatives but on the question of military action. The international community should stand back at the moment, allow the initiatives to proceed, see what results arise from them and go back to the UN for sanctions if necessary. We should not take any unilateral action.
I sincerely believe that all hon. Members in this debate hold their views genuinely. In an article in The Observer, the Prime Minister said:
Mr. Harry Barnes (North-East Derbyshire):
I am glad that the debate has moved away from the opinions of two Front-Bench teams and that Back Benchers are expressing alternative views.
I was one of those who opposed the action taken in the Gulf war, and I would defend that position today. However, I recognise that, in the Gulf war, there were clearly stated military objectives to free Kuwait and rid it of Saddam Hussein's troops. Many hidden agendas were none the less involved, and the hideous action on the road to Basra went beyond the objectives.
What military objective is in front of us at the moment? Basically it seems to be aimed at the Iraqis' allowing American weapons inspectors into Iraq to continue their work and tackle the problems of the weaponry. Some hon. Members have suggested that we should go beyond that, but that is essentially the position of the American and British Governments. What sort of objective is it? It seems one of bombing Saddam Hussein because he will not act in relation to inspection, waiting to see what has occurred and then bombing again because he refuses to act.
Saddam Hussein has a bunker mentality. He has slaughtered and murdered his own population, gassed and bombed and executed. He is therefore not likely to be brought into line by bombing, especially when bringing him into line means his having to accept a weapons
inspectorate--and nothing beyond that. Saddam Hussein just continues the game, and our only option is to continue to bomb and bomb. That may put him in a desperate situation, in which he begins to think of anthrax-capped missiles in an attempt to tackle the problem.
I believe that we should look for alternative strategies to ensure that the situation in Iraq changes. I do not go along with those who simply want another military adventure, in which Iraq is invaded and taken over. We should first sort out what we are supporting and what we are trying to achieve--we do not want a substitute Saddam Hussein to be established through our military action.
My hon. Friend the Member for Workington (Mr. Campbell-Savours) made a number of proposals, which were of great interest, but what happens if those measures do not work--what option then arises? Will he fall back on the position that the Government may be driven to adopt if they do not make the Iraqi dictator back off--to bomb and bomb? My position differs, in that I would not seek to engage in such action.
Economic sanctions have been entirely counter- productive. Since Saddam Hussein came to power, Iraq has suffered the Iran-Iraq war, the Gulf war and sanctions. In that period, Iraq, which reached the peak of its economic development in 1979, has absolutely collapsed. The gross domestic product per head is between an eighth and a tenth of what it was.
We are not talking about societies in the 1930s that had developed to a similar level. Iraq had witnessed advances in technology and in the use of energy, but all that was destroyed. The Iraqi people are now in the most terrible circumstances. That is why we should stress the need for action to relieve economic--as distinct from military--sanctions.
I want to consider further the condition of the people. In 1955-56, I was in Basra in Iraq doing my national service. Between that period and the time when Saddam Hussein came to power--a period in which Iraq experienced many different developments--gross domestic product per head grew some six and a half times. That was very much tied up with oil--the Iraqis put all their eggs into one basket--which gave fantastic returns, especially when the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil prices in 1974.
Prosperity in Iraq was considerable, particularly in relation to other middle east countries. In 1970, Iraqi GDP per head was 17 per cent. of the figure for the United Kingdom, whereas by 1980--the start of Saddam Hussein's period in power--it had grown to 42 per cent. of the United Kingdom figure. Extensive development had occurred, with all that that entails. There had been periods of agrarian change and new social provisions, such as additional housing.
That was before Saddam Hussein moved the country to military provision, which proved to be a disaster. By 1994, Iraq's GDP per head was only about 16 per cent. of the UK figure. Let us remember the conditions that arose as a result: the shortage of goods; the desertion of the country by professionals; the massive unemployment; the collapse of the economy; hyper-inflation; currency speculation; and the printing--even the photocopying--of money.
To say in the House that the people in Baghdad look as though they are well fed, and that the problem is not ours but Iraq's, is disgraceful. We should be concerned about the condition of the Iraqi people and how they can build up their provisions. If there was a growing economy, the people could begin to build a democratic infrastructure. We should associate ourselves with the people who have those interests, and ensure that their circumstances are such that they can tackle the problem.
If the Iraqi people are bombed and bombed, what will happen? They will seek protection from the only source that seems to offer it, even though they are liable to be slaughtered by that protector. They will not be able to look for other possibilities and come together through different networks to build for the future.
We must not become involved in a programme that consists only of open-ended bombing. We should not rely on sanctions that build on the years of deprivation caused by Saddam Hussein's actions, or on the climate in which Saddam Hussein has been operating. We are in a desperate situation, but there is a road down which we should not go. When we have adopted that view, we should consider some of the ideas that have been suggested tonight about the alternatives in assisting--
Mr. Deputy Speaker (Sir Alan Haselhurst):
Order. I must ask the hon. Gentleman to resume his seat.
Mr. Jonathan Sayeed (Mid-Bedfordshire):
I hope that the hon. Member for North-East Derbyshire (Mr. Barnes) will excuse me if I do not respond to all the points he made, although I shall try to cover some of them.
Despite the length of supply lines, the lack of airborne early warning and the mistakes that were made by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, few doubted the justice of our decision to retake the Falklands. Similarly, there was little doubt in the international community that it was right to expel Iraq from Kuwait.
This time, however, much is different: no sovereign territory has been invaded; our immediate economic interests are not in peril; international support is, at the very best, muted; and, under Britain's uninspired presidency, the European Union is divided. Moreover, the political and military aims are unclear--President Clinton, the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary or the Defence Secretary each seem to have a different view.
Consequently, the doubts over the wisdom of going to war are much greater now than they were at the time of the Falklands or in 1990-91. There is considerable alarm at the possible scale of Iraqi casualties, and great fear at the prospect of Iraqi-inspired terrorism in the United Kingdom. Many suspect that President Clinton wants a little foreign adventure.
The result of this considerable unease is that many are saying, "We must stop and we must wait." However, such people do not explain why we must stop and for how long we must wait. Does anyone believe that Saddam Hussein would allow an unemasculated UNSCOM back into Iraq? The very reason that he expelled it was because it was being effective despite the difficulties under which it was working.
For those who tell us that we must wait, I would ask: for how long--a week, a month, a year? Should we wait until our forces lose their operational efficiency and are
therefore endangered themselves? Should we wait until the allies lose their collective nerve? Should we wait so long that Saddam Hussein perfects his ability to wage a worldwide war? That is what he has been determined to do for decades.
In 1981, the Israelis bombed the nuclear facility at Osirak in Iraq just before it went critical. There was worldwide condemnation, particularly from the French and Germans--the French, who supplied the plant and the Germans, who supplied much of the technology via Brazil. What they conveniently forgot to tell people was, first, that the plant was not designed to produce electricity, secondly, that Iraq had much cheaper ways to produce electricity with its indigenous oil supplies, and thirdly, that the chemical composition of the uranium supplied was designed for producing weapons-grade plutonium.
There is no doubt that Saddam Hussein is determined to use weapons of mass destruction if he needs to do so. I have long held the belief that Saddam Hussein poses a clear threat to world peace. In 1985, I said of Iraq and others:
"We live in a democracy, unlike Iraq. People are free to criticise the Government over our willingness, if necessary, to use military force against Saddam. So they should be. I accept such criticism is made in good faith."
I hope that the Government accept that my party's criticism is in good faith and that we should pursue by all means possible all diplomatic initiatives.
8.26 pm
8.36 pm
"I am convinced that if nuclear war ever broke out it would be initiated not by the super powers but by a nation without any sense of responsibility, where power is concentrated in the hands of the evil, the insane, or the bigoted dictator."--[Official Report, 6 June 1985; Vol. 80, c. 537.]
The Gulf war lifted the immediate threat of atomic or nuclear weapons being used by Saddam Hussein in the near future. The decision to end the ground war after only 100 hours left Saddam Hussein in possession of the weapons of mass terror and in command of his power base. I said at the time that the terms and the timing of the ceasefire left us with unfinished business that would return to haunt us and it has. We must not make the same mistake again. In every action that Saddam Hussein has perpetrated in the past 20 to 25 years, he has shown that he is determined to dominate by terror. If the threat is insufficient, the means will be used.
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