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Mrs. Anne Campbell (Cambridge): Is it not the case that new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease has such a long incubation period that it is extremely difficult to determine the risk? In saying that the risk is negligible, is not the hon. Gentleman misleading the House, because we simply do not know, and therefore we had to err on the side of caution?
Mr. Kennedy: I draw the hon. Lady's attention to the remarks at the National Farmers Union annual conference last week by the Government's principal adviser who chairs SEAC. He pointed to the fact that the incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and the concerns that have been attendant upon it are now, thank goodness, moving decisively in the right direction. Set against that backdrop, the decision seems all the more practically and philosophically perverse.
The third point is the nature of the consultations that were conducted not only inside but outside Parliament. The hon. Member for North Wiltshire (Mr. Gray) mentioned the consultation, in the form of a debate, that occurred in the other place, which resulted in a vote of 207 to 97 against the Government. Most interestingly--I say this as a representative of a party that shares the Government's enthusiasm for getting rid of the hereditary element--even if one breaks down that vote and disregards the votes of hereditary peers voting, the Government would still have lost the vote. That should tell Ministers something about the force of their argument.
Let us consider the Government's practical consultation process. The statement was made in the House on Wednesday 3 December; the official proposals were faxed over the following weekend, with a response deadline of 4 pm on 12 December; the order was made on 15 December; and the ban was effective from 16 December. Mr. John Fuller, director of the National Federation of Meat and Food Traders--who I should have thought would know a thing or two about the matter--described that as making
Perhaps, in passing, I may mention one other matter that is indicative of the debate on beef, of the ban on British exportation and even more so of the importation standards that are being applied to beef entering this country--which many hon. Members feel does not have to meet the stipulations that we place on our own beef producers. The vast majority of imported beef is deboned. Once beef is off the bone, it is very difficult to ascertain whether the specified risk materials--on which, from 1 January, the Government have rightly taken action--have been removed in accordance with UK domestic practice.
Therefore, there should surely be a total ban on beef imports from member states in which the specified risk materials have not been removed to the standards that we are imposing on our own sector. Additionally, surely further spot checks of consignments of imported beef should be made at their final destination--which is permissible under single market regulations and not contrary to the provisions of the European treaties that we have signed.
I hope that, in responding to the concerns that have been raised widely in the debate, the Minister will be able to address that issue. Like hon. Members who have spoken to farmers anywhere in the United Kingdom in the past few months, he can be under no illusion that farmers are suffering not only from a sense of injury but from the sense of insult that accompanies that injury because of the lack of a level playing field. As we pursue a policy of removing beef from the bone, we are increasing the likelihood of not being able to check imports to the same standards that we apply to our own beef.
Another issue--perhaps the Minister will reply to it, too--is that, when the ban was imposed, more than a few farmers had cattle booked into abattoirs and butchers lined up to buy the carcases. They then discovered that those buyers pulled out because of the huge uncertainty that developed almost overnight. If the cattle were just under 30 months old, the farmers may well have had to enter them for the over-30-months scheme. We have all seen the cuts in that scheme under this Administration. Even if the Government resist repealing the ban, it should certainly not apply to cattle under the beef assurance scheme, which has already been established under SEAC regulations, because there is not the slightest possibility of contraction of BSE in such herds.
What of the risk factor? What judgment did the Minister make? SEAC concluded that there was a minute chance of transfer of the BSE agent via the nervous tissue attached to the spinal base tissue. What was the calculation of odds? After the matter became public, it became common parlance that the calculation of odds was 1,000,000,000:1.
Dr. George Turner (North-West Norfolk):
Will the hon. Gentleman give way?
Mr. Kennedy:
I will, for the last time, but not before pointing out that there is 100 times more chance of being struck by lightning.
Dr. Turner:
As I am a new Member, will the hon. Gentleman remind me what the then Government said
Mr. Kennedy:
I am certainly not here to defend the previous Government. The quantifiable difference between this state of affairs and the previous state of affairs is that the scientific evidence has been published and made available to the public. That was not so before.
The calculation of odds does not back up the case being made by the Government. As a previous Prime Minister famously said, advisers may advise, but Ministers decide. Ministers took this decision and Ministers have to face up to the fact that, within hours of taking it, consumers were voting with their feet, purses and wallets and stocking up for Christmas.
Mr. Richard Livsey (Brecon and Radnorshire):
I had the good fortune this afternoon to meet Professor Frank Raymond, who was a senior MAFF adviser and probably the best British expert on beef. He described the order as a travesty because it was not based on the soundest possible research.
Mr. Kennedy:
I am grateful to my hon. Friend. I confirm that the two of us have met several delegations of farmers from different parts of Wales, the west country, Northern Ireland and Scotland. The same message comes through time and again. There is inevitable professional frustration at the way in which the figures are presented and the conclusions are reached. There is a sense that there is no genuine consultation in the minds of Ministers or the actions of the Ministry.
Mr. John Townend (East Yorkshire):
Before the hon. Gentleman sits down, will he deal with the inconsistency in Government policy on risk factor? The Government have banned T-bone steaks and oxtail, although, as the hon. Gentleman has said, they carry a risk of 1,000,000,000:1. The decision on smoking, as a result of which hundreds of thousands of people die every year, is left to the individual. We put warnings on the packets, but leave the decision to the individual. What is the difference in this case?
Mr. Kennedy:
As a smoker, I have to be careful. As my hon. Friend the Member for North Cornwall (Mr. Tyler) has pointed out, the risk for the smoker is not so much what we should be concerned about. We should be more concerned about the passive smoker who is sitting next to him. The hon. Gentleman raises a legitimate point; there is inconsistency. I suspect, having read the press statements of the right hon. Member for Fylde, that we shall be hearing more about that.
Mr. Martyn Jones (Clwyd, South):
Will the hon. Gentleman give way?
Mr. Kennedy:
No, I must make progress. It would not be fair to give way, as many hon. Members want to speak.
I direct my remarks to Labour Back Benchers, especially the newly elected ones who have participated fully in the chorus, whipped up by the Prime Minister,
that they are members of the most rural, countryside parliamentary Labour party ever to have been returned under the coat tails of a Labour Government. If that is so, Labour Members should reflect carefully before tonight's vote. This is a litmus test issue, not just for farmers but, in its knock-on effects, for the rural economy as a whole.
Labour Members should ask themselves who will win if the motion is defeated. Farmers will not; they are experiencing yet another dent in the reputation of one of their principal products in an already weak market. The consumers will not win, either. They are denied a right to decide. Moreover, for the few days when they had that right to decide, they exercised it in complete defiance of the Government's advice.
"a mockery of the consultation process bearing in mind SEAC's assessment of the minimal risk."
Given that the Ministry, on a practical level, has not always covered itself in glory, I was amazed at the speed and the rapidity with which it assessed the replies to the consultation--not least when among the 300 very disparate organisations that it consulted were the Al Hasaniya Moroccan Women's centre and the Association of Circus Proprietors of Great Britain. I do not know whether that was a case of the Ministry wanting to know whether lions in winter prefer their beef on or off the bone, but I think that, when they consulted so widely and--as the BBC "Food and Drink" programme reported in the past 24 hours--only seven of 104 responses supported the Government's ban, Ministers should have started a fresh consultation or thought twice before imposing the ban.
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